COMAC C919

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Landing gear is German,
Breaks and Tires are Honeywell,
Parts of the Fuselage are American,
Flight recorder is GE,
Avionics are Rockwell Collin’s,
Weather Radar is American
Cabin pressure systems, fire monitoring American,
Auxiliary generator American,
De icing is French.

these are complicated systems and each was designed and modified to fit the 919.
don’t believe me? My short hand source. Sure they can be replaced but it takes time money and resources. Plus they again need to be tested and certified finally shifting into production.

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No, his point is that all of the parts you listed are not "German" or "American" or "French" but rather produced by joint ventures in China under the names of companies based in Germany, America, or France, but still ultimately produced in China for the C919 specifically. If the U.S. cut all those suppliers off, their Chinese joint ventures suddenly have no one to produce for and would have to be winded down, at which point the employees and capital could be transferred to Chinese entities.

I'm not sure if it works that way in practice, but that's the theory.

Supposedly, only the engines and nacelles are completely produced outside China, which is why they are the focus of so much attention. But even if all the other components besides the engine and nacelles can be produced in China, the integration of the CJ-1000 with the C919 would require a new round of flight testing at minimum, and there's no indication that has even started yet, even though it has been widely known since 2020 that there is a high risk of the U.S. cutting off the engines in the future.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

So to solve a potential future supply chain issue, you think they should lash the C919 to an unproven unreliable supply chain?

C919 is today highly westernized with the engines just being the most obvious and if you haven’t heard Russia is persona non grata with regard’s to the west. If you put Russian engines under C919 you basically create the very problem you are arguing to solve as the engines are solved but the other systems are terminated. You might as well push to buy MC21s

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Ok then that would be a solution, to buy Russian jets instead of Western jets. It would be a fair punishment for the West for cutting off the LEAP with the goal of hindering China's progress, and a good way to support Russia, an ally of China.

gadgetcool5 said:

No, his point is that all of the parts you listed are not "German" or "American" or "French" but rather produced by joint ventures in China under the names of companies based in Germany, America, or France, but still ultimately produced in China for the C919 specifically. If the U.S. cut all those suppliers off, their Chinese joint ventures suddenly have no one to produce for and would have to be winded down, at which point the employees and capital could be transferred to Chinese entities.

I'm not sure if it works that way in practice, but that's the theory.

Supposedly, only the engines and nacelles are completely produced outside China, which is why they are the focus of so much attention. But even if all the other components besides the engine and nacelles can be produced in China, the integration of the CJ-1000 with the C919 would require a new round of flight testing at minimum, and there's no indication that has even started yet, even though it has been widely known since 2020 that there is a high risk of the U.S. cutting off the engines in the future.

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That assumes that the product is wholly produced in China. That’s almost never the case. Those joint ventures are fed by their own suppliers who are also linked and contracted to the western firm. If they were nationalized then there is no guarantee that the then Chinese venture could produce said components. Killing the supply chain killing the C919.

iBBz said:

Ok then that would be a solution, to buy Russian jets instead of Western jets. It would be a fair punishment for the West for cutting off the LEAP with the goal of hindering China's progress, and a good way to support Russia, an ally of China.

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Buying Russian jets isn’t a solution. Nor is buying Russian engines. As they create the above issues. Plus would be banking on a highly doubtful future. The Russian aviation industry isn’t in a position to meet China’s demand its questionable if they could meet

The two options are the Status Quo.
Almost all these firms have a vested interest in getting the C919 to succeed. They have invested a significant amount of capital and resources in development and effort to build for the C919. They didnt do this of a one off windfall. Support and maintenance is where they plan to make their bank. Commercial aviation lives and dies by the Warrantee program and supply support. Just look at the disaster that is India’s Go First.

And Indigenous industries.
Work to develop and expand system like the Cj1000A to overtime replace. Which is where we are agreeing it’s just that my estimate for how long it would take isn’t as optimistic as yours. I am say a decade. Putting it in the early 2030s you are saying ready to go meaning mid to late 2020s.
The two scenarios are not actually mutually exclusive. Still this is the eternal debate of this thread. Pick a random page and read. The same positions, claims, counter claims and arguments repeated

TerraN_EmpirE said:

If they were nationalized then there is no guarantee that the then Chinese venture could produce said components. Killing the supply chain killing the C919.

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I think you are underestimating the massive priority the C919 is for the Chinese government right now. If the Western companies pulled out, those components would be redesigned and import substituted by China. Heck, the Russians are doing it, with a much smaller economy and resources than China can throw at it. And no amount of Soviet legacy would help with making modern avionics. China has a much better electronics industry than Russia could ever hope to have.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

The Russian aviation industry isn’t in a position to meet China’s demand its questionable if they could meet

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I agree with you because, like I said, the Russians won't have enough production capacity for export of either engines or aircraft in the short term. They do expect to deliver the first MC-21 and SJ-100 with Russian components this year. But I kind of doubt they will be able to meet this deadline.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Almost all these firms have a vested interest in getting the C919 to succeed. They have invested a significant amount of capital and resources in development and effort to build for the C919. They didnt do this of a one off windfall. Support and maintenance is where they plan to make their bank. Commercial aviation lives and dies by the Warrantee program and supply support. Just look at the disaster that is India’s Go First.

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You could say the same for the MC-21 suppliers from the West. It still got sanctioned. Do you think Pratt-Whitney Canada wanted to not deliver the PW150C turboprop engines for the MA700? They designed and built the engines specifically for that aircraft, and then had to put them in a warehouse.

You can bet that the West will try to sabotage the Chinese airline and car industries. Especially the US. Try reading what's their main export.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Landing gear is German,
Breaks and Tires are Honeywell,
Parts of the Fuselage are American,
Flight recorder is GE,
Avionics are Rockwell Collin’s,
Weather Radar is American
Cabin pressure systems, fire monitoring American,
Auxiliary generator American,
De icing is French.

these are complicated systems and each was designed and modified to fit the 919.
don’t believe me? My short hand source. Sure they can be replaced but it takes time money and resources. Plus they again need to be tested and certified finally shifting into production.

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Most of those are by joint ventures. There is an auto-translated list below. The reason why the engine gets the most attention is it is hugely expensive, 100% imported, and is an actual chokepoint tech. Even if they don't sanction the C-919 at some point it still makes sense to develop a domestic choice for multiple reasons. And yes, having a domestic engine would make the aircraft much more sanction-resilient as everything else is much easier.

gelgoog said:

I think you are underestimating the massive priority the C919 is for the Chinese government right now. If the Western companies pulled out, those components would be redesigned and import substituted by China. Heck, the Russians are doing it, with a much smaller economy and resources than China can throw at it. And no amount of Soviet legacy would help with making modern avionics. China has a much better electronics industry than Russia could ever hope to have.

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I bet China is already designing and testing their own components in anticipation for upcoming Western sanctions. The C919 will likely become 100% West free in less than a decade.

gelgoog said:

I think you are underestimating the massive priority the C919 is for the Chinese government right now. If the Western companies pulled out, those components would be redesigned and import substituted by China. Heck, the Russians are doing it, with a much smaller economy and resources than China can throw at it. And no amount of Soviet legacy would help with making modern avionics. China has a much better electronics industry than Russia could ever hope to have.

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Which would still take time. That’s the critical here. Time. You can’t snap your fingers and expect to suddenly develop such. It’s not just the electrical it’s certification and testing that takes time and is part of the process.
The typical substitution is to start by scavenging like we see in the Russian and Iranian aviation sectors as they try to maintain vintage fleets by hook and by crook.

For true self reliance it will take time which is my stand point. To start with what they have and expand that will not happen overnight. I do agree they are likely already looking at more and more indigenization. However this is civil aviation and that has a ton of regulatory and financial impact attached to it. Things that slow things down.

gelgoog said:

I agree with you because, like I said, the Russians won't have enough production capacity for export of either engines or aircraft in the short term. They do expect to deliver the first MC-21 and SJ-100 with Russian components this year. But I kind of doubt they will be able to meet this deadline.

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And I agree that they likely will miss the deadlines. However I am more pessimistic in regards, the Russian industrial future.

gelgoog said:

You could say the same for the MC-21 suppliers from the West. It still got sanctioned. Do you think Pratt-Whitney Canada wanted to not deliver the PW150C turboprop engines for the MA700? They designed and built the engines specifically for that aircraft, and then had to put them in a warehouse.

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It got sanctioned once the western powers saw that they could not negotiate the Russian government out of a war. Sanctions are reactionary. P&W Canada wanted to sell the engines. It even did sell them a number but like so many other things from Trains to McDonalds. Once the Kremlin ordered the invasion.

gelgoog said:

You can bet that the West will try to sabotage the Chinese airline and car industries. Especially the US. Try reading what's their main export.

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I would only take that bet IF some major provocation took place. One likely started in Beijing.
Chinese made cars already proliferated into Western Europe. They are unlikely to make it into the U.S. but have a strong presence in central and South America as well as Australia and more. I view the same as potential for C919 and C929.
What we are really talking about here is sanctions, embargo’s and the nature of them. They are typically reactionary policies. Responding to behavior that discontents the west. Not Proactive policies meant to cripple something before it happens.

That the U.S. will try and cut Comac off at the knees. I disagree here as that’s not in the preview of the Government. That’s Boeing, Airbus and even Embraer’s problem to deal with. They solve that by making sweetheart deals that cause the Comac Rep a broken nose when the doors of airlines procurement directors slam in his face.
The fact is LEAP Engines are already on C919 wings. The time to “sabotage” it is more or less past, And it certainly wouldn’t be effective to sabotage the C919 once China has CJ1000 engines in testing.

sunnymaxi said:

10+ units of C919 will be deliver this year as per the source.

ARJ-21 has 48 units annual capacity if needed. we just cannot compare C919 with ARJ-21.

Assembly line of C919 currently expanding. the new production facility will be one of the largest and most advance in the world. COMAC has completely different plans for C919..

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you have ZERO chance

you should look at Airbus and Boeing Capacities for A220 and Boeing 737

avitaion industry has many bottle necks right now in terms of materials

KALREZ FFKM O-rings for aviation has announced shortage of raw materials this has held up both Airbus and Boeing production

and somehow COMAC is immune to all that?

you are clearly not up to date with aviation matters

I wonder if Airbus can be persuaded to qualify CJ1000 on A320 series? This would enable them to stay in the China market if LEAP is sanctioned. Alternatively SNECMA or whoever in Europe develop a US-free engine.

asif iqbal said:

you have ZERO chance

you should look at Airbus and Boeing Capacities for A220 and Boeing 737

avitaion industry has many bottle necks right now in terms of materials

KALREZ FFKM O-rings for aviation has announced shortage of raw materials this has held up both Airbus and Boeing production

and somehow COMAC is immune to all that?

you are clearly not up to date with aviation matters

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sir please read my all massages..

i never said, COMAC will achieve 150 units annual production by 2028. i know its very tough with current circumstances. global supply chain issue as well.

Airbus/Boeing facing problems due to sanctions on Russian materials.

i m the most familiar person related with Chinese civil aviation here. from last year, COMAC started to source materials from local companies. C919 localization rate is also much higher what is actually in the public domain.