COMAC C919
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
At this point jumping to C939 I think is a jump to far. Let along 949 which is at best theoretical.
First that’s a lot of resources in a market segment that has strong competition. Both Boeing and Airbus are working to get 777-8 and the latest A350-1000 on the market well second in a niche segment. The Jumbo twins are being moved to replace the Jumbo quads. But the Jumbos are still fairly new. The Boeing 747-8, A380 on the quads side are fairly new and the 777 legacy are barely at their middle age. Well the A350 XLR is fresh from the factory. The market segment that loves them the hub and spoke is fairly regional specific and laser focused on a hand full of airlines.
Next if you want to get a design team working on a widebody my first recommendation would be salvaging 929. It’s in a good segment with good demand and lots of potential customers as a replacement for 767, A330 Ceos and residual DC10s.
It’s class is a good stepping stone up the ladder assuming that is where market demand goes. Basically it’s the China Dreamliner, Sino A350.
It’s already got a prototype under construction. Most of the hard work is done. The problem point is UAC. If Comac can decouple from CRIAC and turn the CR929 into the C929 they might be able to fly it by the end of the decade. Perhaps even give UAC a bone by offering a knock down kit they can assemble with whatever UAC can afford to build.
As to jumping to a A321XLR. First is it needed? XLR is being pushed into the same segment pioneered by the 757. It’s the narrow body long range. That’s a role that tends to be again market specific with questions of demand. 757 pioneered as it was the perfect solution for the trans Atlantic direct flight. New York to Paris. London to DC. But did you notice that Atlantic bit? The XLR is following in to try and take the same mission albeit with trade offs. The question is does China need that?
Finally E2 and A220 are generally classed as regional but that classification is fuzzy. A220 has the range already to replace A320NEO. The proposed A220-500 stretch would sit in the perfect slot to end that by just adding another 30 seats. The E2 hasn’t sold as well in the United States because the airlines don’t want to have to deal with the Scope clause the Pilots Unions. The Scope clause being a dividing line between Regional Airliner and long haul. The E2 sits on that boarder because it’s weight and capacity is just short of the smallest 737 or A320 variants.
The biggest issue Comac has to deal with now isn’t it’s futuristic concepts. It’s establishing its now. It’s ensuring that it delivers its product and services on time to establish a reputation and expand that.
Would this make training pilots for C919 lower cost than Boeing 737 or Airbus A321?The interior of a simulator.
Looks like the same/similar level of Level D simulator that I trained with to get my Dash-8 and Airbus A320 type rating
A380s are being replaced very fast actually. Some of the retired A380s are incredibly young, and there is no market for second hand A380s. 747s are at least useful as haulers.
An A220-500 doesn't really make much sense because it's a suboptimal solution that's also unnecessary. A320 already exists. The only way for A220-500 to make sense, is if Airbus is feeling lazy and doesn't want to design a replacement for the A320.
Going back to your A321XLR point, an NMA type aircraft would make a lot of sense as Chinese carriers grow and want to offer longer-distance routes. If COMAC starts with a clean design today, they could probably start deliveries in 2030s, though I don't know what powerplant would be ideal for this type of aircraft.
TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
The A380 has been slated for replacement primarily as the economics worked against it. Airbus made a bad bet on the Super jumbo quad without considering the Freighter version and with less than optimal engine choice. However they are still going to continue serving in the largest users fleets for another decade. The Boeing 747-8 will
Continue as Boeing had the experience in the class to make it also a freighter where it was more popular.
Airbus doesn’t seem interested in a A320 replacement yet. They have high demand and the NEO is fairly new.
An XLR would however be beyond the 2030s date and that’s a critical because we are also looking at a number of pushes that could paragon shift around that point.
Have you ever looked at the operating cost of A220 vs A320 series aircraft?
People, if you have never looked at these things, this is probably not the right place to be commenting
What do you think is the business case for NMA? How many aircraft are we looking at and how many aircraft is needed to break even
right, the demand for 939 sized aircraft is very low. Any effort in this area by COMAC would be for prestige only
they have a A320 replacement, it's called A220.
The problem with A320 series aircraft is the large gap bw A320 and A321. So ideally for Airbus, you end up with
A220-100/300/500 and then A320.5/A321/A322. That covers from 110 seat to 250 seat.
Kind of a good way for COMAC to go over 20 years. Have their own version of A220/E2 (5-across) that's lighter than A220 (should be possible to do by 2035) and then keep upsizing C919 until it competes in the 200 to 250 seat range
good point, A321LR/XLR was originally designed to cover the business case of airlines wanting to do TATL flights while not having to add widebody type.
C919 works for the domestic market because it's range can do long routes like Harbin to Sanya or Shanghai to Urumqi. If you add range to C919, it will be done with the goal of achieving new missions. What would that be? Well, I thinkit's time you talk to airlines.
For example, someone like AirAsia or Jetstar could be interested in an aircraft that can do 8 hours flight time to cover Singapore or KL to Tokyo, Sydney or all of south Asia
If you start with an airline operating out of HK, something with 3500nm may very well not be needed. See below
Embraer's great failure is making E2-75 to heavy for cope clause. As I said above, there is probably a place in the market in China for 110 to 160 seat aircraft like E2/A220. You can also sell them to Central and West Asia countries.
If COMAC wants to be a bigger player, it needs to make C919 competitive vs A321NEO for ASEAN and West Asian airlines
Yes. And believe it or not, they're not that far apart. Not to mention, that there are a number of factors that affect plane acquisition and route planning.
Possibly 500 in Asia alone, excluding China (I don't know Chinese air routes or expansion plans). Aircraft needed to break even will depend on development costs, which are determined by how ambitious the project wants to be. It will also be influenced by COMAC's cost structure, which I don't know.
Lol no. And the idea that you can stretch the A220 endlessly to cover the same market segment as the A320 is absurd. A stretch of the A220 is not going to have the same costs as the standard A220, nor will it even be able to cover the same market that the A320 does.
How about this then. Name an airline that has both A220 and A320 in service. What is the seat configuration they have for A220 and A320, what is the relative CASK or CASM?
I see, can you name some airlines where this would make sense? Is this NMA going to be twin-aisle? What kind of range are you looking at?
I can definitely name two pretty large airlines that wants A220-500 as replacement for A320CEO. In fact, it has not ordered any A32NEO because it is waiting on A220-500.
In fact, one of the many fears of A220-500 is the possibility of cannibalizing A320NEO
On the topic of the C919, is there any commentary out there on flight deck ergonomics vis-a-vis the duopoly? Curious if the necessary type rating training also comes with some quality of life improvements for the pilots
Air France and JetBlue? Or are these Chinese airlines?