COMAC C919 - China's first modern airliner

cn_habs said:

A Japanese MRJ is not in the same class at all as the C919.

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My bad, was thinking about the Kawasaki YPX instead of the MRJ.

Brumby said:

Do you have empirical evidence to back up your assertion?

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I have no the link now but Sukhoi said to recover the R&D they needed 500 SSJ aircraft sold, and you can see the number sold of DC-10 and L1011 and prove that in commercial airliners less than 500 are not profitable

A-380 for example needs 270 aircraft just to remain even, not even making profits see

The company spent $15 billion to develop the plane and, before costs rose, hoped to reach break-even on the program after 250 deliveries. It now has promised investors that A380s being delivered from this year will no longer lose money. Executives have ceased talking about making a profit on the program.

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PARIS (Reuters) - European planemaker Airbus expects its A350 mid-sized jetliner program to be profitable from 2019 before becoming a prime source of profits, Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier said on Tuesday.

Airbus has firm orders for 780 A350s from about 40 airlines around the world, Bregier said a day after its first delivery of the aircraft to Qatar Airways.

"We think (it) will become profitable towards the end of the decade, so towards 2019," Bregier said on RTL radio. "From then, it will be one of the biggest contributors to Airbus' profitability."

Airbus' newest jet, the A350 was developed at a cost of 11 billion euros ($13.45 billion) and is designed to compete with the twin-engined Boeing 787 and 777 models.

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TerraN_EmpirE said:

Equation, My friend Buisness is buisness, Markets are based on competition.
If Threatened Boeing will adapt. that's how they have survived well other have left the market. AB will Subsidize it's practically state owned anyway.
Additionally I called them Empires for a reason they build far more than just airliners. Comac can step in but the questions are how well can they stand. Only time can tell that.

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Comac is not going to challenge or threaten AB or Boeing anytime soon but it's a very worth while project because China alone needs thousands of planes in this category. It has the flying distance to cover any Chinese city and from Beijing to Singapore. China is going to be the biggest aviation market in the world, far outstripping the now US domestic market. For every C919 flying in China means 1 less Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 bought. Before C919 everything flying in Chinese skies is foreign.

Brumby said:

Do you have empirical evidence to back up your assertion?

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“As for now they have around 170 orders, but to make a profit, they need at least 500-600 orders, so there is much work to be done,” said editor of aviation magazine “Russia/CIS Observer” Maksim Pyadushkin

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See that SSJ is a smaller aircraft than A320. B787 and C919, smaller aircraft can be sold easier but you can bet C919 as well MRJ need at least 500-600 aircraft to start becoming profitable

To make the story easy I believe CEO of Mitsubishi had once said in a interview that his company has to sell 1,000 MRJ units to break even to recuperate cost for various support related costs.

SamuraiBlue said:

To make the story easy I believe CEO of Mitsubishi had once said in a interview that his company has to sell 1,000 MRJ units to break even to recuperate cost for various support related costs.

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I think it is possible because the labor cost in Japan are higher than in Russia, Embraer has succeeded because in Brazil some of the aircraft parts are made, reducing costs.

In that China has a great advantage, like Brazil their labor is cheaper, Bombardier went to Queretaro Mexico to reduce costs, both MRJ and C919 have not easy paths, but i think Japan could become more competitive if they build some parts elsewhere. but in my humble opinion i think China`s C919 has a relatively easier way ahead than the MRJ

b787 said:

I have no the link now but Sukhoi said to recover the R&D they needed 500 SSJ aircraft sold, and you can see the number sold of DC-10 and L1011 and prove that in commercial airliners less than 500 are not profitable

A-380 for example needs 270 aircraft just to remain even, not even making profits see

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If I were to summarised with the examples given :
SSJ - 500 needed to recover R & D (no reference source)
DC-10 and L1011 - assertion that less than 500 are not profitable (no reference source)
A-380 - 270 to breakeven
A-350 - projected to be profitable by 2019, no units required stated

Firstly, it should be noted recovering R & D is not synonymous as breakeven. It is not semantics but a world of a difference. Investment in R & D is just one component of cost. There are other infrastructure cost like land and building, et al, variable cost (like labour, and materials), overheads (like admin, sales, customer service) and financing cost. Your examples basically affirms my point, the minimum number of units is highly subjective on case by case just as with the MRJ. It is also dependent on business profile i.e. single product line vs. multiple product lines.

We digressed. I suggest we go back discussing C919.

Brumby said:

If I were to summarised with the examples given :
SSJ - 500 needed to recover R & D (no reference source)
DC-10 and L1011 - assertion that less than 500 are not profitable (no reference source)
A-380 - 270 to breakeven
A-350 - projected to be profitable by 2019, no units required stated



.

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500 is not a magic number no of course, but the DC-10 has less than 400 aircraft ever build, the MD-11 less than 300
L-1011, 250 ever build
Il-96, 100 built

can you see the trend or you need more examples

here are more B-767 1080 built
B-777, 1300 built and production still on

ERJ-145 more than 1000

E-170 family more than 1000

Can you see the trend?



See the A-320 family ahs laredy more than 6000
B-737 more than 8000
B-747 more than 1500
CRJ-100 family more than 1000 built
B-727 more than 1800 built
B-707 more than 1000

For the C919, MS-21, MRJ or Bombardier C series 500 is a number to reach to start making a difference


All the airliners that did not make a real impact are bellow 500, Il-96 for example is way bellow that number and same is IL-86

b787 said:

I think it is possible because the labor cost in Japan are higher than in Russia, Embraer has succeeded because in Brazil some of the aircraft parts are made, reducing costs.

In that China has a great advantage, like Brazil their labor is cheaper, Bombardier went to Queretaro Mexico to reduce costs, both MRJ and C919 have not easy paths, but i think Japan could become more competitive if they build some parts elsewhere. but in my humble opinion i think China`s C919 has a relatively easier way ahead than the MRJ

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It's not labor cost in terms of construction but the massive overhead in developing support hubs around the world in which they anticipate to sell. It's the former in my Chicken or the egg analogy in which Mitsubishi is investing ahead before orders.

SamuraiBlue said:

To make the story easy I believe CEO of Mitsubishi had once said in a interview that his company has to sell 1,000 MRJ units to break even to recuperate cost for various support related costs.

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firstly it is OT (again)
Secondly ... not good being too pessimistic ... with your analogy, nobody would ever challenge Boeing and Airbus ... yes I respect your opinions, but I don't agree.
Remember Samsung vs Sony and thousands other samples