Chinese UAV/UCAV development

Will be put into mass production? that sounds like a dubious claim. We really need to know who made such a claim. If it was just media in general, quoting some pundit, then that's worthless. If it's citation of an actual manufacturer representative, then that's a different matter. Mass production claim can be true only if there's someone buying that plane. And since it hasn't flown yet, it's very unlikely some third party nation would be buying such a piece of equipment before it has even flown. If so, it'd basically suggest they're co-developers, or better said co-funders of the whole project. And basically there are almost no nations who'd be interested in such projects from China. Perhaps Saudis, Turkey, maybe Pakistan or Russia. (all are unlikely really for various reasons)

Which leaves us with Chinese military being the customer. Would Chinese military announce such a purchase this early, before the plane even flew? Again, source of the claim is extremely important here. If first flight does happen next year, then perhaps entry into service can be made by 2025 or so.

Bltizo said:

it certainly takes after the X-47B a little bit, though a bit less than the recently updated fcas ucav design

it's impressive that CASC is embarking on a stealthy ucav (and at a proper ucav weight with mtow of 13 tons) without commitment from the PLA. Combined with the similar (now relatively old) Lijian demonstrator and the plethora of other flying wing uav demonstrators that have been revealed, one has to wonder what the PLA themselves may be working on

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If you take a flying wing and crank the planform, all resulting designs will be reminiscent of the X-47B.

I think what happened was that CASC was competing for the PLAAF GJ-X contract and lost.

Totoro said:

Will be put into mass production? that sounds like a dubious claim. We really need to know who made such a claim. If it was just media in general, quoting some pundit, then that's worthless. If it's citation of an actual manufacturer representative, then that's a different matter. Mass production claim can be true only if there's someone buying that plane. And since it hasn't flown yet, it's very unlikely some third party nation would be buying such a piece of equipment before it has even flown. If so, it'd basically suggest they're co-developers, or better said co-funders of the whole project. And basically there are almost no nations who'd be interested in such projects from China. Perhaps Saudis, Turkey, maybe Pakistan or Russia. (all are unlikely really for various reasons)

Which leaves us with Chinese military being the customer. Would Chinese military announce such a purchase this early, before the plane even flew? Again, source of the claim is extremely important here. If first flight does happen next year, then perhaps entry into service can be made by 2025 or so.

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From this CCTV video:

SinoSoldier said:

If you take a flying wing and crank the planform, all resulting designs will be reminiscent of the X-47B.

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indeed.

I think what happened was that CASC was competing for the PLAAF GJ-X contract and lost.

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it's definitely possible but as of yet we still don't have a firm understanding of what the PLA stealthy ucav programme is like. Rumours of an in service Sharp Sword UCAV have yet to be substantiated firmly, and information is coming in small dribs and drabs.

One reason I suspect if CASC may be developing CH-7 somewhat on their own dime is because it reminds me of how projects like CH-3, 4, and 5 and even WL-1 and 2 were first developed without the PLA as a firm customer and seemingly without an explicit PLA requirement. of course it would be something to go from developing MALE drones semi independently, to developing full scale stealthy ucavs, but stranger things have happened...

Bltizo said:

it's definitely possible but as of yet we still don't have a firm understanding of what the PLA stealthy ucav programme is like. Rumours of an in service Sharp Sword UCAV have yet to be substantiated firmly, and information is coming in small dribs and drabs.

One reason I suspect if CASC may be developing CH-7 somewhat on their own dime is because it reminds me of how projects like CH-3, 4, and 5 and even WL-1 and 2 were first developed without the PLA as a firm customer and seemingly without an explicit PLA requirement. of course it would be something to go from developing MALE drones semi independently, to developing full scale stealthy ucavs, but stranger things have happened...

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Developing something like CH-7 isn't something that a typical aerospace firm can do something by themselves, and it's a fairly big gamble to assume that the PLAAF/PLAN might want this in the future when they already have another stealthy UCAV in the pipeline. I also find it suspicious that a company that has never built anything so sophisticated before managed to pull the feat off before the "big boys" could do so with their PLAAF-backed counterpart.

So I highly suspect that this has at least some form of PLA backing, if not outright a variant of the drone that the PLAAF intends to have in service. Time will tell, as with all other things at Zhuhai.

SinoSoldier said:

Developing something like CH-7 isn't something that a typical aerospace firm can do something by themselves, and it's a fairly big gamble to assume that the PLAAF/PLAN might want this in the future when they already have another stealthy UCAV in the pipeline. I also find it suspicious that a company that has never built anything so sophisticated before managed to pull the feat off before the "big boys" could do so with their PLAAF-backed counterpart.

So I highly suspect that this has at least some form of PLA backing, if not outright a variant of the drone that the PLAAF intends to have in service. Time will tell, as with all other things at Zhuhai.

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I'm a little bit surprised as well, but CASC is also a pretty big institution even if it hasn't had much of a prior traditional manned fixed wing history.
But as far as fixed wing UAVs go they've had quite a bit of success with the preexisting CH family so it's not inconceivable that they're looking to step it up, or perhaps conduct early development of a new drone with the intention of enticing the PLA as a buyer.

It is also possible that the actual PLA backed stealthy UCAV project may be far more capable than what the CH-7 is meant to be, and/or further along in other ways.


That said, I don't think we can rule out that this has some form of PLA backing, but I would also caution that just because something seems cutting edge now doesn't necessarily mean it has to be PLA backed. Back when WL-1 and CH-3/4 first emerged they were also relatively cutting edge for the PLA yet they were developed mostly in house with an eye for export.

Bltizo said:

I'm a little bit surprised as well, but CASC is also a pretty big institution even if it hasn't had much of a prior traditional manned fixed wing history.
But as far as fixed wing UAVs go they've had quite a bit of success with the preexisting CH family so it's not inconceivable that they're looking to step it up, or perhaps conduct early development of a new drone with the intention of enticing the PLA as a buyer.

It is also possible that the actual PLA backed stealthy UCAV project may be far more capable than what the CH-7 is meant to be, and/or further along in other ways.


That said, I don't think we can rule out that this has some form of PLA backing, but I would also caution that just because something seems cutting edge now doesn't necessarily mean it has to be PLA backed. Back when WL-1 and CH-3/4 first emerged they were also relatively cutting edge for the PLA yet they were developed mostly in house with an eye for export.

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But you have to acknowledge that the CH-3/4/5 is a different ballgame from the CH-7 in terms of cost, R&D time, and complexity. Especially if, as you've proposed, the project was financed in-house.

With a 2019 first flight date and a planned conclusion to flight testing by 2022, this is far faster than the Sharp Sword project has ever been and seems to be a bit of a "miracle" (read: PLA support) when CASC is not known for its VLO research or testing facilities.

SinoSoldier said:

But you have to acknowledge that the CH-3/4/5 is a different ballgame from the CH-7 in terms of cost, R&D time, and complexity. Especially if, as you've proposed, the project was financed in-house.

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in absolute terms they certainly were, but in relative terms (i.e.: comparing what the domestic technology level was like then vs what the domestic technology level is like now) I think the difference may not be quite that large.

With a 2019 first flight date and a planned conclusion to flight testing by 2022, this is far faster than the Sharp Sword project has ever been and seems to be a bit of a "miracle" (read: PLA support) when CASC is not known for its VLO research or testing facilities.

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well we still don't know what the sharp sword project was actually meant to achieve -- tech demo or a prototype intended for production and service by a given date?

furthermore sharp sword was also likely the entire industry's first attempt at a relatively large scale flying wing ucav demonstrator as well, and I suspect since then a fair deal of knowledge and expertise (relating to flying wings, but also more other domains) may have been shared among the major Chinese aerospace players either through top down orders or through natural change of personnel and staff.

CASC wasn't exactly known for its MALE UAVs until the last few years as well, yet here we are.


I'm not suggesting that CH-7 has zero PLA support of any kind or that it may not be intended to try and garner PLA interest, however I am saying that the idea of CASC pursuing this relatively independently and to achieve the time scale described isn't quite fantasy given how well they've performed with other UAV projects in the recent past which were fairly complex for their time

flateric said:

Where have I seen this before...wait

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I think we have something here...

WJ-700... Zoom in the first photo to read the English information placard located in the lower right.







WJ-500 UAV...