Re: Chinese sub thread
The projected numbers are not bullshit but are based on very logical assumptions even if they still need to be proven with hard evidence. The latter is not easy due to the lack of transparency and public admission.
For example, in order to have a true 24 hour around the clock deterrance you would need at least 3 to 4 boomer subs, with at least one ship in constant patrol. Regardless of whatever "Chinese indigenous characteristic" you may apply to what the PLAN may be "planning", we know well enough that the PLA does follow or even go out of its way to mimic Western or US characteristics.
Some of these assumptions you cannot avoid. Note that the Russians are building a total of 3 Borei class subs. That's the minimum you need for deterrance.
If they never build a second Xia class, and PLAN wants a minimum deterrance force, they have to make the Xia 406 operational, and bring two of the enhanced Xia class online. If 406 is not operational, then three of the enhanced subs.
Another is that you have to assume that the attack subs themselves are going to be built in a flotilla basis. Especially since we are now seeing that the PLAN adopting group or flotilla tactics in their subs rather than lone wolf tactics. In fact, it was the PLA's own articles and news releases that say so. A flotilla is at least four ships.
Note how ship groupings in the PLAN revolves around a unit of four.
The Han subs --- 402, 403, 404 and 405
The Kilos are a total of 12 --- 3 groups of four. That means a flotilla for every fleet --- North, East, and South.
I am expecting that the Songs should be around 12 for the same reason. 3 flotillas, with one for each fleet. If they built more than that, expect in increments of four, 16 being the next number, followed by 20.
The Houbei probably around a minimum of 12, to 24, or 2 flotillas per fleet for the last.
At least 24 engines are ordered, and with two each for every 054A class, that means a total of 12 ships, nicely separated into 3 flotillas each.
I don't know if they are willing to build at least four modified 091 class, if their purpose extends to tactical and training development. I am thinking the 091 modified is for technological purposes only, and I speculate, if Han 402 has been retired, then the modified Han takes it place.
They should probably at least build a flotilla of 093s, combined both version with the sail on tower and without. Probably two of the ones with the sail, and two without.
It isn't just technological development the PLAN is interested in, but in the training and tactical. Obsolescence does not affect your training and tactical development roles. The 093s along with the Hans, can be used for that to help usher a new generation of crews that can handle 095s.
Note the need for training and tactical development will also apply to the enhanced 092s and 094s.
I would expect no less than four Yuans also in the near term.
The projected numbers are not bullshit but are based on very logical assumptions even if they still need to be proven with hard evidence. The latter is not easy due to the lack of transparency and public admission.
For example, in order to have a true 24 hour around the clock deterrance you would need at least 3 to 4 boomer subs, with at least one ship in constant patrol. Regardless of whatever "Chinese indigenous characteristic" you may apply to what the PLAN may be "planning", we know well enough that the PLA does follow or even go out of its way to mimic Western or US characteristics.
Some of these assumptions you cannot avoid. Note that the Russians are building a total of 3 Borei class subs. That's the minimum you need for deterrance.
If they never build a second Xia class, and PLAN wants a minimum deterrance force, they have to make the Xia 406 operational, and bring two of the enhanced Xia class online. If 406 is not operational, then three of the enhanced subs.
Another is that you have to assume that the attack subs themselves are going to be built in a flotilla basis. Especially since we are now seeing that the PLAN adopting group or flotilla tactics in their subs rather than lone wolf tactics. In fact, it was the PLA's own articles and news releases that say so. A flotilla is at least four ships.
Note how ship groupings in the PLAN revolves around a unit of four.
The Han subs --- 402, 403, 404 and 405
The Kilos are a total of 12 --- 3 groups of four. That means a flotilla for every fleet --- North, East, and South.
I am expecting that the Songs should be around 12 for the same reason. 3 flotillas, with one for each fleet. If they built more than that, expect in increments of four, 16 being the next number, followed by 20.
The Houbei probably around a minimum of 12, to 24, or 2 flotillas per fleet for the last.
At least 24 engines are ordered, and with two each for every 054A class, that means a total of 12 ships, nicely separated into 3 flotillas each.
I don't know if they are willing to build at least four modified 091 class, if their purpose extends to tactical and training development. I am thinking the 091 modified is for technological purposes only, and I speculate, if Han 402 has been retired, then the modified Han takes it place.
They should probably at least build a flotilla of 093s, combined both version with the sail on tower and without. Probably two of the ones with the sail, and two without.
It isn't just technological development the PLAN is interested in, but in the training and tactical. Obsolescence does not affect your training and tactical development roles. The 093s along with the Hans, can be used for that to help usher a new generation of crews that can handle 095s.
Note the need for training and tactical development will also apply to the enhanced 092s and 094s.
I would expect no less than four Yuans also in the near term.
