Chinese sub surfaces undetected behind USS Kitty Hawk

Status
Not open for further replies.
Finn McCool

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
This incident does not prove anything. It does not prove that the Chinese SSK force can penetrate USN ASW defences. There is not enough evidence on this to prove that, and I find that hard to believe based what I know right now.

That said, it does show that the PLAN has proven that it can find a carrier battle group in the open ocean, and can get a sub/s into its path. Of course, that was aided by the fact that the Kitty Hawk's itinerary was posted on the Internet :)rofl: ) but still, getting that Song in the correct position was probably quite difficult. I personally believe that more than one sub was involved in this operation and that the PLAN put a SSK picket line across the relatively narrow area between Taiwan and the Phillipines.

Few subs can "keep up" with a transitting CBG. Those few are probably Seawolf and Virgina, and maybe Russia's latest nuke attack boat. All others will make noise. If the CBG is really moving, they'll all make noise. A diesel Song simply cannot keep up. on diesel or (for long) on batteries. It is unlikely that the Song "shadowed" the carrier.

What is more likely is that a Song somehow, using an external intellignece source, managed to manovoure itself in the path of the CBG and let screen ships waltz right in

None of this sounds like a blue water operation but cases where we have always assumed PRC might a achieve best case advantage when compared to US Navy (assuming article is true)
Click to expand...

Basically I agree with Seacraft. We here at SDF have always maintained that in a realistic situation the best chance that the PLAN would have at getting at a US carrier would be to put an SSK waiting in its path. Of course, in a realistic situation that would take excellent intelligence and luck.
 
crobato

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
duskylim said:
Dear Sirs:

This incident and the tactics the submarine commander utilized remind me of World War II submarine operations against enemy warships, essentially it consisted of and elaborate ambush, that is, predict the future course of the enemy, place yourself there, wait and hope you were right!

To quote a famous submariner "yee gods! A flat top!"

It must be recalled that half the carriers lost in that war were lost to enemy submarine action, so history suggest that with enough subs available one can do considerable damage to major elements of the opponent's fleet.

Both the Soviet Union before and the PLAN now are aware of this and probably rate subs as their best naval weapon. I would look to see a greater expansion of China's submarine fleet.

By the way someone mentioned that the Song had a seven-blade propeller, however I do believe that only the lead sub - which was rated unsatisfactory and had to undergo extensive modification before being accepted - had this.

All the new build subs in fact have a much smaller (and hence faster-turning) brass propeller - its quite prominent in many pictures of the new Song's. I have always wondered as to why the PLAN decided on this apparently retrogressive step, as the smaller, faster propeller should be noisier and less efficient.

Anyone care to comment?

Best Regards,

Dusky Lim
Click to expand...


Except for the first, they all should have the same 7 bladed skewed propeller, at least according to the pictures I've seen. I'm not really sure where you see the so called smaller propeller. I hope you are not confusing pics with that of older Kilos.
 
crobato

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
That said, it does show that the PLAN has proven that it can find a carrier battle group in the open ocean, and can get a sub/s into its path. Of course, that was aided by the fact that the Kitty Hawk's itinerary was posted on the Internet ( ) but still, getting that Song in the correct position was probably quite difficult. I personally believe that more than one sub was involved in this operation and that the PLAN put a SSK picket line across the relatively narrow area between Taiwan and the Phillipines.
Click to expand...

I don't really think it's far out into the open. Anyway, we know the PLA can "find" ships at least close to their backyard. Back in 1994, the same carrier was harassing a Han sub. J-6s were sent to intercept and they were well out of their loiter range,which means the planes had to be scrambled from the ground and directed. That implies a command network that is able to detect and respond, probably with the aid of satellites.
 
P

Pointblank

Senior Member
duskylim said:
By the way someone mentioned that the Song had a seven-blade propeller, however I do believe that only the lead sub - which was rated unsatisfactory and had to undergo extensive modification before being accepted - had this.

All the new build subs in fact have a much smaller (and hence faster-turning) brass propeller - its quite prominent in many pictures of the new Song's. I have always wondered as to why the PLAN decided on this apparently retrogressive step, as the smaller, faster propeller should be noisier and less efficient.

Anyone care to comment?

Best Regards,

Dusky Lim
Click to expand...

I think it is because they were just more experienced with the older prop, and the newer one was first generation, and hence, they were not experienced with them and they subsequently had some trouble with the design.
 
crobato

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Pointblank said:
Then again, the PRC would want to send a statement to the USN: Your not invincible. We got one of our subs into firing position on your carrier. Watch your back next time, if you decide to cross us.
Click to expand...

The usual policy is to pretend nonexistance of capability. It's always better for the enemy to underestimate you, than to overestimate.

I have a theory that it's not just a message to the USN, but to the PLAN, the PLA and the CMC leadership itself. Recently the PLAN once again had a change in leadership, and these ones are more oriented on surface ships. Hence serious talk and effort on the possible carrier project. Militaries have factions that usually back one doctrine against another, your "mafias" for example. Sensing a change in policy, one that may deemphasize subs for surface ships and carriers, here is a sub guy trying to send the message "hey look, we can do it. We can do it better than anything else you have now or planned. Subs is the best weapon you have."
 
coolieno99

coolieno99

Junior Member
IMHO the carrier group position was probably fixed by the Jian Bing-5 SAR satellite. The outline of carrier flight deck can be made out by SAR satellite in high resolution mode. The sub was then sent to position itself for ambush like in World War 2. German U-boat "wolf packs" always staged an attack by ambush, they never tried to "outrun" their prey, even slow running freighters.
Besides modern subs do not need to get near their targets. They can launched Club-S missiles at 200 miles away. Even the subs are lucky enough to get near their targets, they can launched wave-homing torpedoes at about 20 miles away.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
coolieno99 said:
IMHO the carrier group position was probably fixed by the Jian Bing-5 SAR satellite. The outline of carrier flight deck can be made out by SAR satellite in high resolution mode. The sub was then sent to position itself for ambush like in World War 2. German U-boat "wolf packs" always staged an attack by ambush, they never tried to "outrun" their prey, even slow running freighters.
Besides modern subs do not need to get near their targets. They can launched Club-S missiles at 200 miles away. Even the subs are lucky enough to get near their targets, they can launched wave-homing torpedoes at about 20 miles away.
Click to expand...
Both of those scenarios (Club2 at 200 miles, or wave homing at 20 miles) would be ineffective against a US nuclear powered carrier. AEGIS will knock down the Clubs, unless there are very many of them (like 20-30). And a wave homer from 20 miles? Far too much time for the target to react and either turn away or otherwise avoid the torpedo...becaue they will hear the launch and hear it coming.

Getting inside the ring, like where this Song was at less than five miles is where a sub will need to be to inflict maximum damage on a carrier....even then, a US nuclear carrier is VERY fast, and may be able to outrun most torpedoes unless they are launched within a mile or two and moving at well over 50 knots.
 
S

Scratch

Captain
Could it be possible that the ASW vessels of the Group detected the sub but didn't react to see how the sub would act.
Or would they "ping" every unknown contact in the path of a carrier ?
 
R

RedMercury

Junior Member
Kudos to crobato for the most insightful post so far. Everyone else failed to consider the internal politics of the PLAN.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
crobato said:
The usual policy is to pretend nonexistance of capability. It's always better for the enemy to underestimate you, than to overestimate.

I have a theory that it's not just a message to the USN, but to the PLAN, the PLA and the CMC leadership itself. Recently the PLAN once again had a change in leadership, and these ones are more oriented on surface ships. Hence serious talk and effort on the possible carrier project. Militaries have factions that usually back one doctrine against another, your "mafias" for example. Sensing a change in policy, one that may deemphasize subs for surface ships and carriers, here is a sub guy trying to send the message "hey look, we can do it. We can do it better than anything else you have now or planned. Subs is the best weapon you have."
Click to expand...
If that message was meant to be sent, it was on orders from much higher up, IMHO, than the individual sub commander. I doubt that an individual boat commander would act in such a fashion to take upon himself the decision to send such a message...but I do not discount that higher level brass within the PLAN would set in a motion such a plan to do so, for the reasons you cite

I still believe that the Song did not "shadow" the CSG...it would be too slow to do so...and that if they did penetrate the ring, it was done so by knowing in advance where the carrier would be operating and then waiting there quietly until they were in a position to surface close in to the carrier.

I'd love to see pictures of the surfacing so a more accurate explanation could be formulated...but if they exist, on either side...it is not likely that the general public will ever see them.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top