Chinese shipbuilding industry

Wrought said:

Where were the US port fees in 2020-21 which caused Chinese orders to fall below Korean ones? It's a volatile industry.

View attachment 162757

Click to expand...

highly fluctuate industry. for every month we have a different data.

in 2024, China reached at peak position. with its share of the global orderbook surging to 70% in 2024. most of local shipyards have backlog orders till 2028. so it was obvious there will be a dip in 2025 and it happened.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
there are two important measures in shipbuilding. deadweight tonnage and order backlog

despite the dip in 2025, China still the largest and dominated power in shipbuilding.

From January to September 2025, China's completed shipbuilding output reached 38.53 million deadweight tons (DWT), up 6.0 percent year-on-year; new orders totaled 66.60 million DWT, down 23.5 percent; and as of the end of September, order backlog stood at 242.24 million DWT, up 25.3 percent year-on-year.

During the same period, China's share of the global market, measured by deadweight tonnage, accounted for 53.8 percent of completed output, 67.3 percent of new orders, and 65.2 percent of order backlog. Measured by compensated gross tonnage (CGT), the shares were 47.3 percent, 63.5 percent, and 58.6 percent, respectively, maintaining China's leading position in the global shipbuilding industry.

Nevermore said:

What you're saying is one aspect, but looking at this year's new order data, the decline in new orders for Chinese shipyards far exceeds that of South Korean shipyards.

Click to expand...

That's not how this works, you need to average out muiltple years in this business to see the trend. Month-to-month is waaaay too short period of time. Last year was a banner year for China partly because of the high overall shipbuilding orders. Shipyards elsewhere do not have excess capacity, so when more ships than usual are ordered then the excess ships have to go to Chinese shipyards. There's been an overall chill in the market due to at least perceived deglobalization trends since "liberation day", and less overall ship orders will then in turn disproportionately affect Chinese shipyards.

What will affect Chinese shipyards in the long term is 1) continued increase in global trade despite the headwinds, and 2) continued move up the supply chain. The SK shipyards will primarily be affected by #2.

escobar said:

New U.S. port tax unlikely to have much effect on China's shipbuilding momentum

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

I guess they're going to separate analyze the effect of China's port tax with exemption for Chinese built vessels and those placing new orders at Chinese shipyards, lol

And then there's the potential for Chinese sanctions on South Korean shipyards if they take on maintenance orders for US navy ships