That is the part that is probably disturbing a lot of foreign semi executives sleep patterns. This was supposed to be the hard part, according to US think tankers and policy advisors, that would have take decades for China to develop on its own, if ever. Now you not only see just one, but multiple companies, from the big established ones like Naura to startups, from state companies to private, from different provinces, making high end tools and variations of high end tools that was suppose, according to think tankers, difficult for China to "replicate".I took a careful look through their product lineup. It's pretty wide spread. And I wonder just how much this is about the supply chain. It's almost mind blowing you can have this many startups in such a complex industry that suddenly can produce competitive products.
Even IC metrology that was supposed to be second only to lithography, according to guy who I talked years ago, you have multiple companies basically with the entire catalog of KLA.
Now everything that these think tankers and policy advisers advised few years ago and their copes now hinge in a single Dutch company, but I think lithography is already a done deal in China, from I-Line, KrF, dry ArF, 14nm immersion this year and 7nm EUV in a few years, probably 5nm. For now the goal seem that is not to compete with ASML globally but to have patterning machines, DUV and EUV, that can meet the local demand BUT, I have to say it again, because China is not just building a single machine but an entire supply chain for lithography machines, if that supply chain is not exclusive to a single company, you could have, at least at the beginning, multiple companies entering the local lithography market, like SiCarrier and SMEE in ArF-Immersion-EUV and Naura, ACM and other startups in I-Line-KrF. Having a wild Chinese market is a big long term risk for ASML.
