Chinese semiconductor thread II

[tokenanalyst]

I took a careful look through their product lineup. It's pretty wide spread. And I wonder just how much this is about the supply chain. It's almost mind blowing you can have this many startups in such a complex industry that suddenly can produce competitive products.

That is the part that is probably disturbing a lot of foreign semi executives sleep patterns. This was supposed to be the hard part, according to US think tankers and policy advisors, that would have take decades for China to develop on its own, if ever. Now you not only see just one, but multiple companies, from the big established ones like Naura to startups, from state companies to private, from different provinces, making high end tools and variations of high end tools that was suppose, according to think tankers, difficult for China to "replicate".

Even IC metrology that was supposed to be second only to lithography, according to guy who I talked years ago, you have multiple companies basically with the entire catalog of KLA.

Now everything that these think tankers and policy advisers advised few years ago and their copes now hinge in a single Dutch company, but I think lithography is already a done deal in China, from I-Line, KrF, dry ArF, 14nm immersion this year and 7nm EUV in a few years, probably 5nm. For now the goal seem that is not to compete with ASML globally but to have patterning machines, DUV and EUV, that can meet the local demand BUT, I have to say it again, because China is not just building a single machine but an entire supply chain for lithography machines, if that supply chain is not exclusive to a single company, you could have, at least at the beginning, multiple companies entering the local lithography market, like SiCarrier and SMEE in ArF-Immersion-EUV and Naura, ACM and other startups in I-Line-KrF. Having a wild Chinese market is a big long term risk for ASML.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Startup making stepper projection lithography machines, imagine when they have access to advanced wafer stages, high end interferometers, high end picometer-positioning technology, high end lithography optics or even entire domestic lens assemblies, damping systems, lithography software, metrology and high end light sources like high power high repetition stable excimer lasers. Of course they will not get ASML level but they could launch pretty powerful lithography systems.

Jiangsu HiSilicon Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. is a professional manufacturer and supplier of stepper projection lithography machines and fully automated lithography machines (Mask Aligners) . HiSilicon's mask alignment can accommodate 300 mm products and is compatible with wafers and substrates of different shapes and thicknesses. These products are used in various fields such as MEMS, integrated circuits, hybrid modules, compound semiconductors, optoelectronic modules, 3D packaging, optical devices, power devices, and micro-nano processing.
We have established partnerships with many internationally renowned semiconductor manufacturers and research institutes. We have a professional team with extensive experience in semiconductor equipment manufacturing and lithography. HiSilicon is committed to providing customers with excellent technical solutions, continuously optimizing its business structure and improving service quality, and consistently providing high-quality services to our customers.
In June 2023, Jiangsu HiSilicon Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. successfully launched a stepper lithography machine and put it into the market, while simultaneously developing a 350nm resolution stepper lithography machine.
In 2024, 350nm and 500nm resolution stepper lithography machines will be officially launched.​

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[tphuang]

That is the part that is probably disturbing a lot of foreign semi executives sleep patterns. This was supposed to be the hard part, according to US think tankers and policy advisors, that would have take decades for China to develop on its own, if ever. Now you not only see just one, but multiple companies, from the big established ones like Naura to startups, from state companies to private, from different provinces, making high end tools and variations of high end tools that was suppose, according to think tankers, difficult for China to "replicate".

Even IC metrology that was supposed to be second only to lithography, according to guy who I talked years ago, you have multiple companies basically with the entire catalog of KLA.

Now everything that these think tankers and policy advisers advised few years ago and their copes now hinge in a single Dutch company, but I think lithography is already a done deal in China, from I-Line, KrF, dry ArF, 14nm immersion this year and 7nm EUV in a few years, probably 5nm. For now the goal seem that is not to compete with ASML globally but to have patterning machines, DUV and EUV, that can meet the local demand BUT, I have to say it again, because China is not just building a single machine but an entire supply chain for lithography machines, if that supply chain is not exclusive to a single company, you could have, at least at the beginning, multiple companies entering the local lithography market, like SiCarrier and SMEE in ArF-Immersion-EUV and Naura, ACM and other startups in I-Line-KrF. Having a wild Chinese market is a big long term risk for ASML.

I really don't think the think tankers understand enough to look beyond what % of Lam and ASML sales still come from China region. In their mind, that means the export restrictions aren't restrictive enough.

IC metrology imo really got better in the past year as the oscilloscope and laser sensor techs got good. That's something that if you don't follow the Chinese supply chain, you just won't notice.

But it just never really seemed to me that obvious why SiGe EPI would be so difficult to do compared to other stuff, so I'm not surprised now to see so many Chinese products for it.

 

[LanceD23]

Anyone heard the story of keyi or Rslaser went back to first generation and convert mercury lamp to solid state laser?