Chinese semiconductor thread II

[iewgnem]

I’m worried about the rest of China. There’s a serious chance the US under Trump goes full throttle and just sanctions everything which would kill half of china’s tech exports like Lenovo and Xiaomi.

Oh please, Intel is already on death-watch, Samsung just shut down half their fab lines, go full throttle and Xiaomi and Lenovo will just turn into Huawei, while Qualcomm and AMD will join Intel.

And if China feel like retaliating, cut off Tesla’s access to Chinese batteries, supply chain or market, take your pick, and Elon’s fortune evaporate, blockade TSMC and entire US tech industry collapses, China has way more escalation room than the US has.

Lastly the USD card isn’t in American hands, its in China’s hands. China controls more than 35% of global manufacturing by value and more than half by volume, China’s acceptance of USD for exports is the only thing giving USD any value.

The heart of the problem is America simply doesn’t have enough real national power for whoever in power to wield. They didn’t last time Trump was in power, didn’t when Biden continued the policies, and even less so today. US already lost the trade war, the bio-war, and is losing the tech war, and China hasn’t even played a fraction of their card yet, I mean just look at Skydio for how vulnerable even American Made-in-USA defence contractors are to the smallest of Chinese sanctions.

 

[curiouscat]

Oh please, Intel is already on death-watch, Samsung just shut down half their fab lines, go full throttle and Xiaomi and Lenovo will just turn into Huawei, while Qualcomm and AMD will join Intel.

And if China feel like retaliating, cut off Tesla’s access to Chinese batteries, supply chain or market, take your pick, and Elon’s fortune evaporate, blockade TSMC and entire US tech industry collapses, China has way more escalation room than the US has.

Lastly the USD card isn’t in American hands, its in China’s hands. China controls more than 35% of global manufacturing by value and more than half by volume, China’s acceptance of USD for exports is the only thing giving USD any value.

The heart of the problem is America simply doesn’t have enough real national power for whoever in power to wield. They didn’t last time Trump was in power, didn’t when Biden continued the policies, and even less so today. US already lost the trade war, the bio-war, and is losing the tech war, and China hasn’t even played a fraction of their card yet, I mean just look at Skydio for how vulnerable even American Made-in-USA defence contractors are to the smallest of Chinese sanctions.

Don’t let nationalism blind you to reality. China needs to prepare for the worst case scenario. There is zero chance every technology company in China will be able to do what HUAWEI does. It’s too capital intensive for all companies to do it. There is significant risk that China’s tech exports will get blown up. Lenovo and Xiaomi and countless of other Chinese companies need US chips at the moment to remain globally competitive and will continue to need them for the foreseeable future. Even now HUAWEI’s global market share excluding China in smartphone is still cratered to 0 and it will be extremely difficult for them to claw their way back up.

 

[curiouscat]

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Taiwanese business leaders and politicians are calculating that US sanctions on China with Trump could tilt the balance significantly in Taiwan’s favor, including in semiconductor. lol.

 

[GiantPanda]

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With Republican control of all branches of the US government China better buckle up. I have a feeling it’s gonna get really ugly.

Buckle up for what? All Chinese semicon companies worth their salt are already on the Entity List.

This move is from a classic American comedy:

 

[iewgnem]

Don’t let nationalism blind you to reality. China needs to prepare for the worst case scenario. There is zero chance every technology company in China will be able to do what HUAWEI does. It’s too capital intensive for all companies to do it. There is significant risk that China’s tech exports will get blown up. Lenovo and Xiaomi and countless of other Chinese companies need US chips at the moment to remain globally competitive and will continue to need them for the foreseeable future. Even now HUAWEI’s global market share excluding China in smartphone is still cratered to 0 and it will be extremely difficult for them to claw their way back up.

China has been preparing for it for years, which is why SMIC and Huawei do what they do, which is why Xiaomi have their own chips. The question you need to ask is does the US have their own Huawei and are they prepared for the worst case scenario.

Here’s the actual worst case scenario: China sanctions all US tech companies, bans Tesla, bans Apple, bans Qualcomm, not just from China but from any contact with Chinese supply chain at any part of the chain, then blocks US access to TSMC, cuts US access to all Chinese exports, sanctions Amazon, sanction US ports and ban all ships that docks at US ports in past 12 month from docking at Chinese ports, ban all all chipmakers that suppy the US auto industry, ban the USD.

See, your worst case scenario for what US can do is Xiaomi exporting less phones because they lose Android, the worst case scenario for the US is total industrial and technological annihilation. That’s the nature of the power differential.

Having one nukes isn’t enough to fight a nuclear war with someone with 1000 nukes.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

After 8,000 explorations, 7,120 novel structural topologies with navigation-level accuracy were obtained, of which 93.7% of the topologies performed better than traditional multi-ring topologies, and some topologies even achieved orders of magnitude improvement in performance compared to traditional topologies.

I sense big improvements in the pipeline.

This right here is the crucial difference in how AI is applied in China vs. America. China, with vast amounts of industrial data, has industrial AIs that push the technological frontier in all sorts of fields. America has chatbots and deepfakes.

 

[gelgoog]

since October, 2022. every single high end machine/EDA have been blocked include repair/maintenance. SMIC is in entity list since 2019 for EUV and remaining machine have been blocked since 2022..

Huawei has been completely cut off from USA/EU tech since 2019.

the only option US has, to bomb SMIC/Huawei factories.

It is more complicated than that. EUV semi tools and EDA capable of GAA transistor design are banned from China altogether.
As for the remaining semi tools, SMIC's FinFET fab is banned from getting anything with US content in it, or immersion lithography tools, but SMIC's other fabs can get immersion lithography tools just fine. Where do you think SMIC is getting the immersion lithography tools for their massive 28nm expansion? ASML.

Only SMIC's SMSC is sanctioned like that.