Myself and others have been saying this for a while. TI and similar US companies that produce these commoditized chips like ADC/DACs would be put on the firing line. Chinese companies are buying them because the economics for replacement just doesn't make sense. However, the continued belligerence of American sanctions changes that equation. American companies will lose easy business for nothing.[News] China’s Probe into U.S. Chip Subsidies May Target Texas Instruments
are you simply not capable of change from x.com to twitter.com to make it easier for this thread? another infraction like this and you can't post on this thread for a month.
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This guy is having a paranoia about CXMT as of late and it's an amazing accomplishment by that company. I'm sure CXMT is using some of the same loopholes SMIC used to import SME to develop below 18.5nm DRAM.
But really interesting to see how american administration in turning a blind eye on them.
I remember when they got the news on YMTC surpassing Samsung they were sanctioned very quickly
this is good news. Micron got to D1b without EUV. CXMT is at good enough yield with D1z and whatever tools they got from before the October sanctions came + whatever non-American tools they have now. I'd assume they can get to D1a by 2026 as long as AMEC/NAURA tools continue to improve.Changxin Memory (CXMT), recently began mass production of products using the D1z (16 nanometers or less) of the 10-nanometer (1 nm = 1 billionth of a meter) DRAM process. It is reported that there is a growing sense of crisis that competition in leading products may intensify in the future due to the low-price offensive of Chinese memory companies.
■ Samsung conducts on-site investigation in pursuit of CXMT technology
According to the semiconductor industry on the 22nd, Samsung Electronics has started to grasp the trend after recently seeing that China's CXMT is mass producing double date rate 5 (DDR5) using the D1z of the 10-nanometer DRAM process, which is a leading process. As the 'super gap' technology competition in the semiconductor industry intensifies, semiconductor companies including Samsung Electronics are also putting a lot of effort into understanding their competitors' technological capabilities.
The 10nm DRAM process narrows the circuit width in the order of D1x → D1y → D1z. As the circuit width narrows, more cells (data storage units) can be integrated in the same area, which increases density and reduces power consumption. The subsequent generations, D1a to D1b and D1c, are called next-generation processes. The industry sees that if CXMT, which was producing products with the D1x (18nm) and D1y (17nm) level of technology, has begun to introduce the D1z process in earnest, it means that it has narrowed the technological gap quickly.
Significant capacity by Chinese suppliers hurting pricesDRAM has entered a decline since Q4 2024, driven by continued weakening demand in major applications since the second half of last year. High industry inventory levels and price declines for DDR4 and LPDDR4, which are impacted by Chinese suppliers, are particularly notable.
Koreans are shifting focus to HBM and not participating in DRAM price war, it looks likeWhile HBM is leading AI memory growth this year, general DRAM is expected to go through a gradual adjustment. Investments are being focused on HBM, and we are proceeding cautiously. With AI as the priority, we anticipate market behavior to differ from past cycles.
Revenue share of DDR4/LPDDR4 going down by more than 50% for SK. Huge growth likely for CXMT and others.• While high-performance, high-spec DRAM products like HBM and DDR5 will remain in tight supply this year, demand for legacy products like DDR4 and LPDDR4 is expected to decrease, further decoupling product-specific demand. • SK Hynix plans to focus on HBM and DDR5 while reducing DDR4/LPDDR4 production and normalizing inventory. • As a result, DDR4/LPDDR4 revenue share is expected to shrink significantly from 20% last year to single digits this year.
SK is being overly optimistic about need for higher end HBM here. I think while HBM3 will be on Nvidia chips, it doesn't give you all that much more. I can see Huawei continue to go HBM2E on chips it sells for inference even after HBM3 domestic production starts next year.We disagree. While lower-spec HBM was initially considered sufficient for AI inference applications, the importance of high-spec HBM is now increasing.
so SK is still optimistic about their more densely packed DDR5 vs CXMT. But they are moving to D1c, which is 3 generations ahead of D1z that CXMT is mass producing now.What is your position on Chinese DRAM manufacturers? Do you think they can enter the high-performance memory market such as DDR5 and HBM? • Since the second half of last year, Chinese DRAM suppliers have increased their supply of DDR4 and LPDDR4 products, coupled with declining demand, leading to continued price drops in legacy products. • Recently, there have been reports discussing the development and sale of DDR5 by Chinese manufacturers, raising concerns in the market. • However, compared to the processes applied by major suppliers to produce high-performance products, there is still a significant gap. The performance and quality of DDR5 based on their current processes will show a clear difference. • With escalating trade restrictions on China, Chinese manufacturers are likely to face even more uncertainties in securing advanced fabs. • SK Hynix plans to continue developing advanced fabs and preparing high-performance products in a timely manner. We aim to maintain our competitive edge by preparing a variety of AI memory products, including HBM, to stay ahead of emerging competitors.