The analogy is totally wrong here. China can make ICE cars, can for decades, they are just crappy and unable to penetrate the mass market due to Japanese/german competition.
And as people have explained to you the importance of market forces, which seem to be too difficult for you to understand, that is the exact same situation.
But they existed in the hundreds of thousands, were midly popular in China and you can buy them. Electric cars build up on the common ICE cars framework China already had
Common people don't buy lithographs, do they? Before the sanctions, it was either be the best or be obsolete. SMEE didn't have the funding or drive to be the best but it would be too dangerous for the Chinese government to let it be gone, so it stood in the shadows behind ASML working with government funds seemingly without use. Then when the sanctions happened, suddenly we see why it was useful and wise to keep it right where it was, so that China wouldn't be starting from scratch, but from a point where a very expensive and hard-fought sprint could close the gap and render the sanctions harmless (or actually beneficial).
The analogy would be like if a nation totally couldn't make a single car at all, not the engine, tyres, gear box or any of the important parts despite more then a decade of effort, but announced that they were gonna mass produce supercars within a handful of years.
No, it wouldn't, as everyone has demonstrated to you. Everything was made and ready for refinement, but they were not market-viable in an environment where they would have to compete with ASML.
The point still stands, I'm not saying that China can't get a EUV, just that it's gonna take wayyyyy longer then most people expected.
There was never a standing point from anything you said. "Wayyyyyy longer" isn't a number. It took wayyyyyy longer for me to get to work this morning because of the traffic and I was late 6 minutes.
China's own EV development mirrors this, BYD didn't pop up in 2020. They have been making hundreds of thousands of ICE cars/hybrids for decades since 2003 before their batteries got good enough to reach EV mainstream success. They took more then a decade to scale up and get good.
So basically, what I said, they were making crappy ICE cars, then leapfrogged to come out ahead in EV. This decade, the whole world was trying to scale up EV; it was not catching up but moving ahead.
It would only mirror the lithography situation in China if BYD and other chinese automakers only this year, made their very first cars ever, just a few dozen units and people on internet forums are predicting that in the 5 years, that China would be making a few million super cars.
No, that's you confusing being a viable player with being the globally dominant player and also you confusing a globally competitive environment with a closed domestic environment. In this specific Chinese environment in which there is great need and foreign competition as self-banned, SMEE only needs to make a working product to be successful; it doesn't actually need to make a product that is competitive with AMSL right off the bat. So, could a Chinese car company go from scratch to making a working car in 5 years and producing millions for a Chinese domestic market in which the only choice was this car or bicycling? Yes, easily. Does that apply to SMEE? Only the environmental part. The scratch foundation assumption is untrue because it's not going from scratch; it's going from a base where it was following the global leader much closer behind than anyone knew and is now already making 7nm equivalent chips in a market where 5nm is the lowest that is viable.
That's how bad the lithography situation is in China right now
No, that's how bad your understanding is right now.
and I don't think it's realistic for mass production of EUV within this decade, maybe a prototype or two at most
Prototypes have existed for over a decade. You're going backwards.
Are you concern trolling?
This guy is all sorts of trolling. Been banned like 15+ times. It's the same person who presented these ideas (among others):
1. AI can kill humanity by tricking a stupid person trying to make a protein shake into making a prion disease to wipe out humanity.
2. Asian men are less violent to women than other races because Asian men and women are the same size. How was it determined that they are the same size? Because him and his female cousin are the same size. Case closed.
3. How violent a man is can be determined by the amount of body hair on him.
