Chinese semiconductor thread II

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
If there wasn't a serious pursuit, SMEE wouldn't have been founded in 2002 and kept alive all this years. And I do not buy the market forces theory for SMEE's exceptionally slow development. Basically every high tech chinese product in the last 30 years has had to fight tooth and nail against western products and various other market forces, almost every area from passenger jets to nuclear reactors has seen decent progress other then in lithography machines, and those fields weren't even sanctioned 6 years ago. There's a reason why lithography is a extremely hard techologny and there's a reason why everyone other then ASML has basically dropped out of the field.

And if we can't draw on past experiences, what else is there left to draw on? The handful of scraps of info that we get that has people here speculating that EUV is right around the corner around 2025/2026? There's basically no evidence for that either. There has been a lot of progress but no indication on how it translate into the readiness for mass production.

I will add that EUV being made up of so many critical parts means that even a single critical competent being delayed means the entire machine is delayed. It's not like a J-20 situation where it can fly without it's intended engine for a couple years while the WS-15 was being worked on. Having 90% of the EUV ready today doesn't mean much if critical parts like light source or optics or wafer stage isn't ready for another decade.

That was the problem that SMEE faced wasn't it? Like ASML, they mainly worked on intergrating various competents from various suppliers into a complete machine, they didn't produce everything inhouse. And their suppliers kept having issues and delays. I mean I would love it if EUV came out in 2025 but there's plenty of reasons that it's development path will be plagued with delays.

But fine I will drop the topic.

Still better than what SMEE had. At least they had a somewhat competive products that could stand on their own. And they sure scaled up fast when the sanctions came knocking.
Are you concern trolling?
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member

Gaoche Shares: The current equipment orders on hand are saturated, and the net profit is expected to exceed 1.44 billion yuan in 2023​

Gaoche Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that the company's equipment orders are currently saturated and the factory production schedule is normal. Equipment orders mainly come from the expansion of new production capacity in the silicon wafer segment and the replacement of old production capacity stock. It is expected that the demand for replacement of old production capacity stock and overseas demand may increase in 2024.

Gaoche Co., Ltd. recently issued a pre-performance announcement, predicting that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2023 will be 1.44 billion to 1.48 billion yuan, which is expected to increase by 651.388 million yuan compared with the same period last year (statutory disclosure data). 691.388 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.60%~87.67%.

The company expects to achieve a net profit of 1.40 billion to 1.46 billion yuan attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in 2023. Compared with the same period last year (statutory disclosure data), it is expected to increase by 649.7683 million yuan to 709.7683 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.61%~94.61%.

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Gaoche Co., Ltd. stated that the global demand for new photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to be strong in 2023. The company has given full play to the closed-loop technical advantages of "cutting equipment + cutting consumables + cutting technology" to continuously improve product competitiveness. Photovoltaic equipment, diamond wire, and silicon wafer cutting and processing services have All businesses continued to develop rapidly and achieved substantial growth in performance. Orders for photovoltaic equipment have increased significantly, and the company's leading position has been consolidated; diamond wire production capacity and shipments have increased significantly, and it has basically achieved full production and sales, and its competitiveness continues to improve; the production capacity of the silicon wafer cutting and processing service business continues to be released, and the advantages of professional cutting technology continue to lead, The scale of shipments has increased significantly.

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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member

Runyou New Materials has received tens of millions of yuan in angel + round financing, focusing on the R&D and production of high-purity quartz sand and quartz products.​


Recently, Runyou New Materials received tens of millions of yuan in angel + round financing from Qizhen Innovation Venture Capital. Qizhen Venture Capital news shows that this round of financing will be mainly used for the company’s production capacity construction, team expansion and new product research and development.

Runyou New Materials was established in September 2022 and focuses on the research, development and production of high-purity quartz sand and quartz products. The "Zhejiang Runyou New Material Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual output of 40,000 tons of high-purity quartz products and semiconductor silicon-based new materials project" under construction is listed as a major industrial project in Zhejiang Province. After completion, it will form a high-purity enterprise with an annual output of 40,000 tons. The production capacity of quartz products and new semiconductor silicon-based materials can effectively solve the supply bottleneck problem of domestic high-purity quartz products. The performance and quality of the company's quartz sand and quartz products for the photovoltaic field have been highly recognized by downstream customers and have been shipped in batches. In the future, we will further develop and produce semiconductor-grade quartz materials and products to meet the needs of customers for multiple product types.

On July 4, 2023, the groundbreaking ceremony for Zhejiang Province’s “thousands of trillions” major projects was held. Zhejiang Runyou New Material Technology Co., Ltd., located in Wuyi County, Jinhua City, has an annual output of 40,000 tons of high-purity quartz products and semiconductor silicon-based new material projects. It participated in this centralized start-up event.

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
The analogy is totally wrong here. China can make ICE cars, can for decades, they are just crappy and unable to penetrate the mass market due to Japanese/german competition.
And as people have explained to you the importance of market forces, which seem to be too difficult for you to understand, that is the exact same situation.
But they existed in the hundreds of thousands, were midly popular in China and you can buy them. Electric cars build up on the common ICE cars framework China already had
Common people don't buy lithographs, do they? Before the sanctions, it was either be the best or be obsolete. SMEE didn't have the funding or drive to be the best but it would be too dangerous for the Chinese government to let it be gone, so it stood in the shadows behind ASML working with government funds seemingly without use. Then when the sanctions happened, suddenly we see why it was useful and wise to keep it right where it was, so that China wouldn't be starting from scratch, but from a point where a very expensive and hard-fought sprint could close the gap and render the sanctions harmless (or actually beneficial).
The analogy would be like if a nation totally couldn't make a single car at all, not the engine, tyres, gear box or any of the important parts despite more then a decade of effort, but announced that they were gonna mass produce supercars within a handful of years.
No, it wouldn't, as everyone has demonstrated to you. Everything was made and ready for refinement, but they were not market-viable in an environment where they would have to compete with ASML.
The point still stands, I'm not saying that China can't get a EUV, just that it's gonna take wayyyyy longer then most people expected.
There was never a standing point from anything you said. "Wayyyyyy longer" isn't a number. It took wayyyyyy longer for me to get to work this morning because of the traffic and I was late 6 minutes.
China's own EV development mirrors this, BYD didn't pop up in 2020. They have been making hundreds of thousands of ICE cars/hybrids for decades since 2003 before their batteries got good enough to reach EV mainstream success. They took more then a decade to scale up and get good.
So basically, what I said, they were making crappy ICE cars, then leapfrogged to come out ahead in EV. This decade, the whole world was trying to scale up EV; it was not catching up but moving ahead.
It would only mirror the lithography situation in China if BYD and other chinese automakers only this year, made their very first cars ever, just a few dozen units and people on internet forums are predicting that in the 5 years, that China would be making a few million super cars.
No, that's you confusing being a viable player with being the globally dominant player and also you confusing a globally competitive environment with a closed domestic environment. In this specific Chinese environment in which there is great need and foreign competition as self-banned, SMEE only needs to make a working product to be successful; it doesn't actually need to make a product that is competitive with AMSL right off the bat. So, could a Chinese car company go from scratch to making a working car in 5 years and producing millions for a Chinese domestic market in which the only choice was this car or bicycling? Yes, easily. Does that apply to SMEE? Only the environmental part. The scratch foundation assumption is untrue because it's not going from scratch; it's going from a base where it was following the global leader much closer behind than anyone knew and is now already making 7nm equivalent chips in a market where 5nm is the lowest that is viable.
That's how bad the lithography situation is in China right now
No, that's how bad your understanding is right now.
and I don't think it's realistic for mass production of EUV within this decade, maybe a prototype or two at most
Prototypes have existed for over a decade. You're going backwards.
Are you concern trolling?
This guy is all sorts of trolling. Been banned like 15+ times. It's the same person who presented these ideas (among others):

1. AI can kill humanity by tricking a stupid person trying to make a protein shake into making a prion disease to wipe out humanity.
2. Asian men are less violent to women than other races because Asian men and women are the same size. How was it determined that they are the same size? Because him and his female cousin are the same size. Case closed.
3. How violent a man is can be determined by the amount of body hair on him.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
With all the discussion, I almost forgot about posting this:

1707410868299.png

SSB500 was the machine that they were selling before.

SSB520 was the one who was announced in 2021 with enhanced resolution, when the stooges in D.C. decided to blacklist SMEE.

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But then there is this new one called SSB545 and looks massive in comparison with the other two. So this one could be for really high end packaging stuff with very high throughput.
 

sunnymaxi

Captain
Registered Member
With all the discussion, I almost forgot about posting this:

View attachment 125041

SSB500 was the machine that they were selling before.

SSB520 was the one who was announced in 2021 with enhanced resolution, when the stooges in D.C. decided to blacklist SMEE.

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But then there is this new one called SSB545 and looks massive in comparison with the other two. So this one could be for really high end packaging stuff with very high throughput.
did you see the pattern of latest development from SMEE.

SMEE basically reborn.

first they update their website with high end Overlay Metrology equipment and specifically mentioned 7nm. now this very high end packaging equipment. and this year Lithography production too.

this is indeed a big sign..
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Yes, but I think we should keep the actual news and factual information rolling about the topic as the situation evolve but avoid further unproductive discussions. I forget from time to time that we shouldn't feed these trolls.
I am referring to this back and forth rather than lithography discussions in general. It’s quite clear this discussion with @tacoburger has run the course
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Cameras for high end semiconductor wafer inspection equipment, supplier for metrology and high end semiconductor wafer inspection tool makers in China.
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Dhyana 9KTDI (Abbreviation: 9KTDI) back-illuminated TDI camera is based on advanced sCMOS back-illuminated thinning and TDI time integration technology, using reliable and stable refrigeration packaging technology, covering a wide spectrum from 180nm ultraviolet to 1100nm near-infrared, effectively improving ultraviolet TDI Line scan and low-light scanning detection capabilities are designed to provide more efficient and stable detection support for semiconductor wafer defect detection, semiconductor material defect detection, gene sequencing and other applications.

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