Chinese semiconductor thread II

[GulfLander]

"TSMC hit by Tawain’s soaring energy prices, FT reports
Taiwan’s labored energy transition is straining its industry, and a series of price increases has made it so Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) now expects to pay more for power in its home country than anywhere else, Kathrin Hille of The Financial Times reports. The chipmaker operates plants in the U.S. and Japan and is also building on in Germany. “Basically, the price has doubled in the past few years. So next year, we think that electricity price for us in Taiwan will be the highest in all the regions that we operate,” Wendell Huang, chief financial officer, told investors, according to the Times.[....]"

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[PopularScience]

Sales up 34% YoY. Nothing short of amazing.
Another 21k wpm in a single quarter. That would be close to a gigafab in a single year.
90.4% utilization rate. So much for overcapacity.

It is not surprising that capex is going down. They likely finished construction of all the buildings at this stage. Probably started moving tools in early this year already. They will be filling those buildings with tools before expanding again. Maybe next year or the year after that.

Will add another 30k wpm in fourth quarter.

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[huemens]

TSMC Reportedly to Halt 7nm and Below Chip Shipments to China’s AI Firms Next Week​

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TSMC has reportedly notified all its AI chip customers in China by formal emails that starting next week (November 11), it would halt shipments of all the 7nm and more advanced chips to its AI/GPU clients there

According to the ijiwei report, with the newly elected Trump claiming that TSMC should pay a “protection fee,” the company’s latest move seems to be an effort to align itself with the U.S. Department of Commerce.

According to another media outlet SEMICONVoice, the U.S. Department of Commerce has reportedly instructed TSMC to make the move, as production could only proceed after being reviewed and approved by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security) and receiving a license. This would effectively tighten the availability of advanced 7nm and below processes for all Chinese AI chips, GPUs, and autonomous driving ADAS systems, the report notes.

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Another insider pointed out that the relevant US personnel went to Taiwan last Friday to discuss further control over China's advanced processes.

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1854843884519489896

All the domestic chip designers have probably been expecting this. If they haven't been working with SMIC, they deserve whatever they are getting.

 

[Overbom]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1854843884519489896

All the domestic chip designers have probably been expecting this. If they haven't been working with SMIC, they deserve whatever they are getting.

If no Chinese company has access to TSMC any more, what's the reason to allow TSMC to keep operating.

I think sabotage on TSMC advanced ( 7nm<= ) foundries is now a viable and acceptable action per game theory.

Basically, if I cannot have them, I will at least make sure you cannot have them as well

 

[Randomuser]

Maybe Im reading only certain news via this thread. But Im really surprised how early Korean and now even Taiwanese semiconductors are starting to struggle. I thought TSMC was untouchable for the time being but we can already see cracks.

At the same time, domestic Chinese companies are making significant progress. Something that would catch many off guard because the news isn't in English.

 

[sunnymaxi]

If no Chinese company has access to TSMC any more, what's the reason to allow TSMC to keep operating.

I think sabotage on TSMC advanced ( 7nm<= ) foundries is now a viable and acceptable action per game theory.

Basically, if I cannot have them, I will at least make sure you cannot have them as well

the major problem is below 7nm for high end mobiles. TSMC still have many Chinese customers like Vivo/OPPO/Techno and especially Xiaomi..

SMIC/China still need few more years. by the time domestic EUV will be available even with low yields, they will start using.

 

[Overbom]

the major problem is below 7nm for high end mobiles. TSMC still have many Chinese customers like Vivo/OPPO/Techno and especially Xiaomi..

SMIC/China still need few more years. by the time domestic EUV will be available even with low yields, they will start using.

oh I think I misread. If it's for Chinese AI makers only and not for all Chinese companies then I take it back. In that case, the game theory calculation needs to be closely looked at

If it was all Chinese companies, no need for calculation, sabotage is the only viable action remaining

 

[sunnymaxi]

oh I think I misread. If it's for Chinese AI makers only and not for all Chinese companies then I take it back. In that case, the game theory calculation needs to be closely looked at

If it was all Chinese companies, no need for calculation, sabotage is the only viable action remaining

yeah. only Ai companies now prohibited to use TSMC process.

China's long term strategy is to defeat TSMC with homegrown technology. it will take time but will be worth it.

 

[european_guy]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1854843884519489896

All the domestic chip designers have probably been expecting this. If they haven't been working with SMIC, they deserve whatever they are getting.

This is a clear sign that Taiwan is losing negotiation power vs US. The earlier TSMC's Arizona fab gets online, the sooner they will lose even more power.

This latest move has nothing to do with Trump, these are the last days of Biden's and hence can be very problematic: they have lost any brake and can "go wild" with bans and threats because don't have to bear the consequences.

Of course the strategic target of US is to kill TSMC business with China altogether, any business...and with Trump this process can even abruptly fasten up.

AI for automotive, i.e. ADAS is a key strategic technology with huge market potential within the end of this decade. Now Horizon Robotics will get a hit. It is critical for China do not let the ADAS train move on without China is onboard....