Chinese semiconductor thread II

[manqiangrexue]

Trying to lay a deeper trap against China would not work because being able to lay a trap in tech for China depends on having a lead over China in technology, while US has parity at best. US is still reliant on SK and even China's semiconductors.

No, they could have laid this trap under the pre-tech/trade war order where China was basically not considering competing with ASML or TSMC but instead continued to build a lead based on the foundations provided to it from overseas. This is the trap; it was there; it was laid; it would only have gotten worse with time, but the US screwed it up by revealing it early and without the commitment to actually spring it fully.

So if they waited until a critical moment and genuinely threatened China's national IC scene (NOT just Huawei), China can just nationalize/ban TSMC from selling to US and instantly bottleneck all of US' needs into Samsung, which they can't sustain. Even worst, given SK's precarious security situation, China can easily manipulate delays/sabotage on Samsung.

To nationalize TSMC, China would have to gain de facto control over Taiwan so that move would be in doubt depending on what situation that "critical moment" represented. But in any case, it would have led to China being directly cut off while the US getting an insufficient supply. Now, it could end up with China's semiconductor supply being undisturbed since all of it is domestic with the US getting the insufficient supply.

In a battle of annihilation, US doesn't have the semiconductor capacity at home to stand directly to China, so they are trying a peeling the cabbage strategy by going after private companies first. But if they are not posing a credible threat to Huawei, there will be no need for Beijing to move out in person and respond.

America has nothing to stand directly to China; it always uses all the lacky nations that it can control to attempt to gang-fight isolated nations. That trap would have to be set together and sprang together. It's the weakness of the parasite to need to get everyone on board but absent the parasitic way, the US has no way to compete with China.

 

[interestedseal]

Interesting！
The U.S. Department of Commerce Control List (CCL) states that 8-bit devices with SPS exceeding 1.3G must apply for a license.
Suzhou Xunxinwei's latest ADC analog-to-digital converter, 8-bit 50G SPS

View attachment 135018
View attachment 135014

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Here is an even more impressive ADC company from Chengdu Sino H1 report: 已形成 12 位 6GSPS 高速高精度 ADC 和 8位64G超高速ADC 等谱系化产品,且 已实现小批量供 货;单通道 12 位 12G 高速高精度 ADC 已 经形成初样;4通 道 12 位 16G、12 位 40G 高速高精度 ADC 和单通道 10 位 128G 超高速 ADDA 正在研发.
Also HW is rumored to have the best ADC tech in China (8bit 71G in 2020)

 

[horse]

Chinese government has honestly been way too lenient on these chip sanctions. Still refusing to even invalidate patents by AMAT and Lam in China.

It's clear that ASML hasn't done a good job of lobbying Dutch government here. They had threatened to leave Netherlands last year and all that got them is further restrictions. At this point, China has to put real pressure on ASML.

I wouldn't do anything.

IIRC, these service agreements, means the employee of a company, is not allowed to touch the inside of the machine. If they do, that means the service agreement is violated.

Sort of like the label we see on a HDD saying do not tamper with this otherwise the warranty is voided.

If there is no service agreement, and ASML is in breach, then the company can go poke around inside the machine all they want. Someone is kissing all their IP out the window on American insistence.

This to me is one of the worst things the Americans and the Dutch can do to ASML. These service contracts probably are expensive and permanent. Kiss that money goodbye too.

 

[gelgoog]

The truth is there are 3rd party used tool resale businesses. There are companies which refurbish old tools. There are companies which resell them. In China as well. A lot of the Chinese tool builders started out as 3rd party repair businesses for foreign tool imports. In most cases used semi tools sell for the same price as new tools. The market is just that tight and limited.

Why do you think Russia can still manufacture chips even in factories using ASML tools?

 

[Weaasel]

Chinese government has honestly been way too lenient on these chip sanctions. Still refusing to even invalidate patents by AMAT and Lam in China.

It's clear that ASML hasn't done a good job of lobbying Dutch government here. They had threatened to leave Netherlands last year and all that got them is further restrictions. At this point, China has to put real pressure on ASML.

Coming from you, always the deliberate, measured, and calculating one, this is very notable...

 

[Weaasel]

Tools are not LEGOs.


Except the US government will apply pressure to ASML to prevent this from happening.

China should just shed light on the fact that the US is monopolizing the chip sector by force by using what levers it has. And that this can be used against Europe, Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan too. That the US seeks to undermine their own industries as well. It is as simple as that.

In the long term China has roughly a third of global chipmaking capacity, like half the chip demand, and that market will be self-sustainable. Just the sheer gravitational pull of the sector in China is irresistible. Talk that a single country cannot encompass the whole supply side of chipmaking is hogwash. Japan could basically make it and they have like a tenth the population of China. So what if the machines are complex. So are jet engines and China is getting there. Just like they did with high-speed rail, solar power, EVs, space launchers, and other sectors.

Thanks for mentioning Japan, but China is very different from other countries. It has a huge domestic market which on its own can be profitable for highly advanced chips. There is also the huge incentive on the part of China to go on its own entirely due to the United States being capable of ensuring that all other countries with tech that it doesn't want China to possess and which China does not have or does not gave in sufficient quantities or presently do not make well do not sell that tech to China, and now the US is going all out to threaten its allies. Ever since I joined this forum in 2018 I said that China should be able to produce ANY and EVERY item of technology worth producing so as not to be vulnerable to other countries restricting access and I predicted that the United States would go as far as ensuring that all tech and materials for certain areas of technology, such as semiconductors and IC chips and IC chip manufacturing equipment, would be prevented from being sold to China, regardless of the cost to any foreign country, against the interests of any non US country... Things were heading in that direction before even Trump came to power and they have continued that way steadily... Do not be surprised when even when it comes to 100 micron chips, which China can easily make, the United States will ensure an export ban of everything related to them...

 

[Weaasel]

something from Paul on this topic and he knows these things quite well, so I think it's something to consider. I would imagine ASML itself would fight tooth and nails to keep the service personnels in there, so looks like some spare parts will be denied license. Which I think they can probably get through with some pain.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1829215835631554793

The law will change to ensure all those things are prevented... Watch this space...

 

[tinrobert]

The law will change to ensure all those things are prevented... Watch this space...

Here's an article I wrote on ASML and its sanction issue.

ASML: Trying to Endure U.S. Sanctions That are Ineffective and Backfiring​

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[gelgoog]

@tinrobert I think this is the link you meant to write:

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[gotodistance]

"Black Myth : Wukong"
Which Chinese GPU company can gaming use in China to replace Nvidia's GPU?