Well I did not pay for it. I think it is good to know what these people think.
I think this was the most interesting chart in their whole diatribe.
Chinese semiconductor thread II
- Thread starter vincent
- Start date
I think this was the most interesting chart in their whole diatribe.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Doing nothing would have been a reasonable alternative had they not boxed themselves into a corner by demonizing China to the public and hyping up an issue that could have been ignored. Government controls media and media influences people and those people put pressure on the government by voting. So, right from the root, they did it to themselves. If they just shut up and didn't say anything to anyone about China, that would have been better. If they were intelligent enough to paint a semi-positive image of China to the American people so they can lay a deeper trap for China increasing our reliance and improving America's image in China by softening their stances on Taiwan and the SCS, that would have lulled China into a very dangerous situation, should they do a sudden 180 and impose all sanctions at once in a conflict we didn't think they would care to escalate. But that's talking about a 4D chess move being played by a kid with Down Syndrome so... we're here instead.
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Just because you’re an “insider” doesn’t mean you have a good read on the whole picture of an industry.
Feels like a pretty big development
This i agree. Not just on chip Sanctions but on most othet sectors. It seems the Chinese government is wary of taking drastic measures to affect US/Western companies in a tit for tat move. I believe there must be a reason Xi jinping has been more passive and lenient in this regard. Afterall, they know more about the country and state of affairs than we common people do. So we should trust his/their judgement.
In this heated discussion of today, we missed the importance of this news.
SMIC is going to start 4(!) new fabs for 28nm and above for local consumption.
This is impressive news, and we can extrapolate many considerations out of it.
- These fabs will be 100% localized, otherwise SMIC knows US would not allow to build them
- In particular, SMEE 28nm litho has to be almost ready now, or at least they are sure that in the worst case it will be ready for volume production in 2026/27 (the time to build the fabs)
- Such huge 28nm capacity for internal market will especially hit Taiwan
- Taiwan foundries will be more and more bounded to western customers. China will do without Taiwan foundries. This is very bad for Taiwan, their geopolitical negotiation power will shrink considerably.
- China foresees US will go for total decoupling in semiconductors. This is already clear now, and we can infer that also China administrators have this point very clear.
Regarding Sullivan's statements:
This is important because Sullivan is the mind behind the tech war US moved to China. Note the word "collectively" referring to SME equipment restrictions. This clearly means that US will push ASML to stop selling and servicing China. ASML and Dutch government can only play to delay the inevitable, like they did in the last 2 years, so the only question is "when", not "if".
It is definitely a race against time for both China and US....
All you need to understand about the sanctions, their intentions and their effect is this:
1) China is at least 50% (probably more now with advent of EVs, green energy, etc.) of the global market chips market,
2) China imported $432B of integrated circuits in 2021; China had been -- and still is -- the largest supporter of the global chips sector,
3) Today those imports have gone down to $350B after Biden's chip bans in 2022; the US bans forced China to go domestic, away from the global companies it always relied on,
4) Most importantly, remember the true intention of the ban in 2022
They went for annihilation. They wanted the Chinese chips industry dead. It was no different than what they wanted for Huawei. But it didn't happen. No discussion of this should ever ignore that hard fact,
5) China chips output (and exports) have been growing massively since and accelerating; 1st qtr 2024 production was up 40%, three times that of 1st qtr 2019,
6) Still a lot of room for growth; $350B imports in 2023. That needs to be whittle down and will be,
7) Know that one American high-node fab champion, Intel? It had 27% of its revenue come from China in 2023. Guess what is happening now with that stream of income eventually being "chipped" away to nothing?
1) China is at least 50% (probably more now with advent of EVs, green energy, etc.) of the global market chips market,
2) China imported $432B of integrated circuits in 2021; China had been -- and still is -- the largest supporter of the global chips sector,
3) Today those imports have gone down to $350B after Biden's chip bans in 2022; the US bans forced China to go domestic, away from the global companies it always relied on,
4) Most importantly, remember the true intention of the ban in 2022
They went for annihilation. They wanted the Chinese chips industry dead. It was no different than what they wanted for Huawei. But it didn't happen. No discussion of this should ever ignore that hard fact,
5) China chips output (and exports) have been growing massively since and accelerating; 1st qtr 2024 production was up 40%, three times that of 1st qtr 2019,
6) Still a lot of room for growth; $350B imports in 2023. That needs to be whittle down and will be,
7) Know that one American high-node fab champion, Intel? It had 27% of its revenue come from China in 2023. Guess what is happening now with that stream of income eventually being "chipped" away to nothing?
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The way I read it is that the mass production of SSA800A had an effect, why? if we believed the rumored that it's performance is comparable to NXT 2000i then its game over. The 7nm domestic line will be ready in 2025 and I think the Beijing FAB is been primed to mass produced it. That SMIC Beijing FAB is huge with a potential capacity to produce 150,000 WPM, while the new Shanghai FAB will be using the recent purchase ASML DUVI making use of the supply chain and maintenance support already established there.