Chinese semiconductor thread II
- Thread starter vincent
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The consensus here is that China will likely have an EUV line in operation by next year and entire new dabs with them by 2026.
No, their premise was the ban was supposed to kill the Chinese industry outright with the sudden removal of chips, equipment and personnel:
What the Biden admin wanted was "annihilation" so in this context every day that the industry survived would have been a victory.
But instead the industry thrived. And is well on its way to dominating the market in legacy and is powering the return of Huawei with 7nm and soon 5nm chips.
As far as EUV, just follow CETC and Huawei with its new campus in Shanghai:
EUV isn't even the end all be all. There are a million and one things in this bubbling cauldron of growth that is the China semicon landscape right now. Things like packaging, multiple passing schemes, etc. that can extend competiveness up to 3nm without EUV, there are things that can blow the current state of EUV out of the water like SSMB and then there are others like Graphene, Photonics and Quantum that make EUV and the current state of chip production absolutely meaningless.
The key to this is gaining control of China's own market -- the world's largest by wide margin. Replace imports with domestic chips and you have the resources to not only survive but to do anything you want and dominate. Right now, that market is 50% of the global share and is still importing more chips than oil.
Nah. It is way more complicated than that. My guess would be maybe 2030.
1. China already has some form of EUV, so a lot of this tech is known inside China.
2. What we are talking about is a commercial problem too, where all this tech must be integrated into a factory that can mass produce chips that is commercially viable.
3. The commercial part of this problem which is point 2, may be harder to achieve than the tech part which is point 1.
4. Look at TSMC plant they are building in Arizona. They have point 1, but they are telling the world and their customers, that point 2 will not be the same, compared to chips produced in Taiwan. (In other words, the TSMC plant in Arizona will not be commercially viable if forced to compete with a Taiwan fab.)
5. It is going to be soon in my estimation. Just look at those patent applications and filings. They did something and then they patent what they found out. Something was actually done.
6. I do not think there is an urgent rush like before. We should always not lose sight of the fact that the chip is just a means to an end. In other words, that chip goes into something. The 3nm chip? Into consumer products. How fast will 3nm be adopted for other uses? Eventually it will be, but that could be years before we see where that 3nm chip winds up.
From @superdog "having the best tools doesn't guarantee a masterpieces, having a master craftmanship do" and China have it in Liang Mong Song.
no, it will be around 2028-2030, the 2026 line is someone's own.. not Mainland's alone
Meaning Huawei?
Huawei people are telling people around them some pretty aggressive deadlines and that's percolating through various channels these days.
I would just suggest that people don't get too concerned with Huawei chip development in general. I don't forsee that they get stuck due to lack of EUV options