Chinese semiconductor thread II
- Thread starter vincent
- Start date
In 2015 the Chinese government goal for 2020-2030 was to have:
2020:
250 nm I-Line machine. Wavelength = 350nm 0.8NA
110 nm KrF machine. Wavelength = 248nm 0.8NA
90nm ArF machine. Wavelength = 193nm 0.8NA
2025:
45nm Immersion machine. Wavelength = 193nm 1.35NA
And for 2030:
32nm EUV machine. Wavelength = 13.5nm 0.30NA
Not 7nm no 5nm no 3nm, that goal was to make chips in a planar process closer to the resolution of the machine because at the time,2015, overlay was still an issue. So for 250nm the overlay is 80nm, 110nm is 35nm, for 90nm is close to 30, for 45nm is 15nm and for 32nm is 10nm. Single exposures and big overlays.
My thinking is that the goal was not to replace foreign machines but to have machines that could make chips that are critical for the government, the space program and the military. That was the self-reliance that government wanted in with MIC2025, is to have 70% of the chips that the government use being produced locally, that include chips for the military, reducing the dependency of critical components that could be blocked. But US stooges in their infinite stupidity miss-interpreted this as China wanting to replace every single chip in China with domestic one and from there with the narrative of bellicose overpaid US think tankers everything when downhill with the situation escalating significantly under Biden in 2022.
I do think was bit foolish for the Chinese government not keeping their MIC2025 plans secret knowing that US clowns would misinterpreted it BUT at the same time I think that with MIC2025, the Special Project 02 and other projects China may have avoided a US made bullet.
2020:
250 nm I-Line machine. Wavelength = 350nm 0.8NA
110 nm KrF machine. Wavelength = 248nm 0.8NA
90nm ArF machine. Wavelength = 193nm 0.8NA
2025:
45nm Immersion machine. Wavelength = 193nm 1.35NA
And for 2030:
32nm EUV machine. Wavelength = 13.5nm 0.30NA
Not 7nm no 5nm no 3nm, that goal was to make chips in a planar process closer to the resolution of the machine because at the time,2015, overlay was still an issue. So for 250nm the overlay is 80nm, 110nm is 35nm, for 90nm is close to 30, for 45nm is 15nm and for 32nm is 10nm. Single exposures and big overlays.
My thinking is that the goal was not to replace foreign machines but to have machines that could make chips that are critical for the government, the space program and the military. That was the self-reliance that government wanted in with MIC2025, is to have 70% of the chips that the government use being produced locally, that include chips for the military, reducing the dependency of critical components that could be blocked. But US stooges in their infinite stupidity miss-interpreted this as China wanting to replace every single chip in China with domestic one and from there with the narrative of bellicose overpaid US think tankers everything when downhill with the situation escalating significantly under Biden in 2022.
I do think was bit foolish for the Chinese government not keeping their MIC2025 plans secret knowing that US clowns would misinterpreted it BUT at the same time I think that with MIC2025, the Special Project 02 and other projects China may have avoided a US made bullet.
I mean, it's probably not something that was predicted, at least not with certainty, but US re-actions to MIC2025 was very much a net positive to its completion.
Chinese government can do a lot of things, but one of the hardest thing to do even for China is influencing public behaviour and overcome network effects. Without America's open hostility it would have been very hard to get consumers to buy domestic, and without US giving up on entrenched marketshare it would have taken much longer for Chinese companies to gain a foothold.
e.g. China invested in EVs because EVs are sufficiently differentiated and superior to ICEs to overcome entrenched western ICE market dominance, but if there were no EVs and China has to compete on ICE, it would have been much harder without somehow forcing errors from western ICE carmakerse.
The original 2015 semiconductor plan was equivilent to an auto industry that tries to compete with the west on ICE, the oppertunity for signfiicant acceleration only really became aviliable because of US reaction to MIC2015.