Chinese semiconductor industry

horse · Oct 20, 2020

taxiya said:
Oh, so how small is your scope? Or how many small pieces are you going to cut the current "war" which started since Trump got into the office years ago? Ah, I see, you want to cut the war into numerous thin slices so you can pick once slice that just shows Trump's attack without seeing the counter-attack? How clever you are!

As about the "current tech war" that you want to talk, wasn't the TikTok robbery dead already by China's "export control list"? Where is Trump's counter-counter-strike? Isn't Trump scared? Isn't Trump afraid to inflame? Isn't Trump hesitant?

You apparently refuse to see the inconvenient "current", but choose to only see the convenient "current", aren't you? It is a common behavior for a child. But it is called "ostrich burying head in the sand" among grownups.

What Trump did was really stupid.

Are you suppose to fight stupidity with stupidity?

Best thing to do is to let the stupidity collapse on its own.

Huawei market share went up during the Trump administration. China has standalone 5G networks in at least two cities today (where none exist anywhere else).

They are losing so badly, the Liberal media has to make it sound like Huawei is being dismantled.

In the end, one makes a choice. They either believe in what is true, or bullshit.

horse · Oct 20, 2020

Published: 3:30am, 9 Sep, 2020

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taxiya · Oct 20, 2020

horse said:
What Trump did was really stupid.

Are you suppose to fight stupidity with stupidity?

Best thing to do is to let the stupidity collapse on its own.

Huawei market share went up during the Trump administration. China has standalone 5G networks in at least two cities today (where none exist anywhere else).

They are losing so badly, the Liberal media has to make it sound like Huawei is being dismantled.

In the end, one makes a choice. They either believe in what is true, or bullshit.

well, I just realized that I wasted my precious 10 minutes on such kind of person, so I put him/her in my ignore list.

horse · Oct 20, 2020

September 7, 2020

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An example of a Chinese company getting "slaughtered."

Orthan · Oct 20, 2020

weig2000 said:
That said, the statement that "its no surprise that these days few if any 5G customer would want to touch them" is factually wrong. It's only applicable to many western countries.

Ok, but the western countries are the countries that would pay big buck to huawei for their 5G network. Where will huawei replace those lost markets?

weig2000 · Oct 20, 2020

Orthan said:
Ok, but the western countries are the countries that would pay big buck to huawei for their 5G network. Where will huawei replace those lost markets?

It's a loss for Huawei, no doubt about it. The current telecom equipment market environment in Europe has been highly politicized. So you have to take it. But see the market share reports in the two posts above yours. Huawei continues to do well. Besides, China's 5G equipment market is the largest in the world at least from the mobile base station standpoint. It continues to dominate the Chinese market, and I expect Nokia and Ericsson will shed some market shares there.

It's unfortunate we have to live through this. It all started because the US felt its tech dominance was under threat and Huawei became its target, without any evidence. Many European countries, despite repeated resistance from telecom companies and even some government officials, had to succumb to the pressure from the US government. European countries are just not strong enough to stand on their own. That's the reality. Otherwise, how do you explain that Huawei has been operating in Europe for over two decades now with telecom customers in pretty much every country there and, all of a sudden, Huawei's equipment aren't accepted now because China is a one-party country?!

I'm assuming you have a pretty good understanding of this Huawei situation, and we don't need to get into more discussions/arguments. Suffice it to say, no one emerges out of it as a clear winner now, but Huawei will survive this and come out stronger in a couple of years. We will see.

gelgoog · Oct 20, 2020

TD739 said:
Even SMEE is ready, ASML could still offer low price due to its matured product and initial investment already recouped.
What made you think China government would do that to a Dutch firm? US government slaughtering Chinese firms yet Chinese government acting scared and idn't go after US firms or setup obstacles for them.

In that case China can just lodge a complaint to the WTO and preemptively increase tariffs on imports of ASML equipment. Like by 100%.
They can just claim that ASML is dumping product. In fact I think they should have done this already.

Just look at what Boeing did to Bombardier a couple years back. They pushed court claims for dumping even when Bombardier's CSeries airplane did not overlap with any of their airplanes on offer. It (CSeries) was a lot smaller than their smallest airplane (737). In the 1980s the USA, when Ronald Reagan was president, also all but banned the sale of NEC SX (Japan) series supercomputers to protect Cray (USA). This basically killed the prospects of NEC supercomputers in the US. Amusingly Cray eventually went bankrupt anyway as supercomputers made with clusters of cheaper market available microprocessors became the norm. NEC even got the last laugh on that because they still sell SX series supercomputers and Cray is just a brand name today and doesn't produce any machine which is compatible with their erstwhile supercomputer architecture at all.

In the case where you can't sanction the company outright you can just claim damages of a certain amount of money and impose tariffs to cover the damages. The US does this all the frickin time like raising tariffs on European cheese and wine imports against claims of damages to Boeing by Airbus for receiving low interest rate loans or other state aid. China just needs to play this game too.

I wouldn't say the Chinese government is being passive. They might take some time to mobilize because of the CCP's, what do the communists call it 'democratic centralism'?, but once they do mobilize it will be quite swift. It takes time for communist regimes which use democratic centralism to come to a decision but once they do it is pretty damn unstoppable.

Just look at what happened at Hong-Kong with the new law as an example.

Stop the NVIDIA acquisition of ARM. It would just reinforce their near monopoly status.

Tyler · Oct 20, 2020

gelgoog said:
In that case China can just lodge a complaint to the WTO and preemptively increase tariffs on imports of ASML equipment. Like by 100%.
They can just claim that ASML is dumping product. In fact I think they should have done this already.

Just look at what Boeing did to Bombardier a couple years back. They pushed court claims for dumping even when Bombardier's CSeries airplane did not overlap with any of their airplanes on offer. It (CSeries) was a lot smaller than their smallest airplane (737). In the 1980s the USA, when Ronald Reagan was president, also all but banned the sale of NEC SX (Japan) series supercomputers to protect Cray (USA). This basically killed the prospects of NEC supercomputers in the US. Amusingly Cray eventually went bankrupt anyway as supercomputers made with clusters of cheaper market available microprocessors became the norm. NEC even got the last laugh on that because they still sell SX series supercomputers and Cray is just a brand name today and doesn't produce any machine which is compatible with their erstwhile supercomputer architecture at all.

In the case where you can't sanction the company outright you can just claim damages of a certain amount of money and impose tariffs to cover the damages. The US does this all the frickin time like raising tariffs on European cheese and wine imports against claims of damages to Boeing by Airbus for receiving low interest rate loans or other state aid. China just needs to play this game too.

I wouldn't say the Chinese government is being passive. They might take some time to mobilize because of the CCP's, what do the communists call it 'democratic centralism'?, but once they do mobilize it will be quite swift. It takes time for communist regimes which use democratic centralism to come to a decision but once they do it is pretty damn unstoppable.

Just look at what happened at Hong-Kong with the new law as an example.

Stop the NVIDIA acquisition of ARM. It would just reinforce their near monopoly status.

The Chinese should just mandate buying local for national security reasons.

gelgoog · Oct 20, 2020

Peter2018 said:
The Chinese should just mandate buying local for national security reasons.

This is a bad idea for several reasons. While there are precedents for something like that, like, I think the French have some regulation where at least some percentage of movies shown in theaters are made in France - you would risk WTO sanctions.
But I think the worst aspects of mandating to buy local are that currently the local manufacturers don't have the scale to meet the demand for the rapid semiconductor industry ramp up required in the current five year plan, and if you outright ban ASML that only leaves the Japanese manufacturers, which could then bring prices up a lot. If you outright ban all non-domestic suppliers that will reduce the incentive for national products to improve. In India and in Brazil they used to do that a lot and their industries stagnated churning out the same crap over and over again at the same time black market imports rose. So I think imposing a steep tariff is a lot better.

TD739 · Oct 20, 2020

Huawei stock pile of cellphone chips will enable it to survive another half year. Showing the graph current revenue doesn't tell the story at all. Who try to fool? Huawei knows they will face a very challenging situation once stock pile used up. Reportedly Huawei about to unload its honor cellphone brand. It won't be able to survive under current situation. Talk about looming storm ahead

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Chinese semiconductor industry

horse

Colonel

horse

Colonel

taxiya

Brigadier

horse

Colonel

Orthan

Senior Member

weig2000

Captain

gelgoog

Lieutenant General

Tyler

Captain

gelgoog

Lieutenant General

TD739

Junior Member