Chinese semiconductor industry

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gelgoog

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ansy1968 said:
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Yes, its a great achievement, the problem is if your 2 generation behind and your being sanction, your tech product especially in the high end will be uneconomical. Its a good marketing ploy to introduce your flagship product with all the bell and whistle money can buy, it permeates down your product line and it boost your brand image, That what Huawei had done. like I said before being a generation behind is the target now just to stay in the game. Samsung is behind TSMC especially in 5nm , at least she can use its 7nm tech for its high end spec phone, Huawei doesn't have that luxury.
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That is one viable business strategy but another is to start from the bottom. Samsung started like that.
For this you need as low costs as possible and razor thin margins. Huawei has enough scale it could have had its own fabs. I think they shot themselves in the foot by believing in market capitalism way too much.

I wouldn't mind purchasing a phone with a processor two generations back if it came with an headphone jack and its own power supply.
 
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ansy1968

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Hi gelgoog,

I think they shot themselves in the foot by believing in market capitalism way too much.

Yup your correct, but it also help Huawei a lot in using their tech to boost its business both economically and its branding. Huawei is doing IDM right now, better late than never, but it will be a long long journey again after reaching the summit. But they will emerge more stronger than ever with better product to bout. IF a big IF their plan succeeded.

I wouldn't mind purchasing a phone with a processor two generations back if it came with an headphone jack and its own power supply.

For us oldies, it would not be a problem, but for generation Z and the next generation it matters a lot, they are the next consumer, a target rich environment for major tech companies.
 
horse

horse

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TD739 said:
Typical American thinking of what's gonna happen with China chip drive.

What does rapproachment mean? Back to old self normal and happy dandy?
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This is my impression of Chinese Communism and how strategy is executed by the party.

But first, that article, that is typical aristocratic thinking. Those on top, will remain on top, forever. Like Orwell wrote about a boot stamping on a human face, forever!

Although, this ban on Huawei and SMIC by the Imperialist to deny them semi-conduct chips in order to cripple them, that is a technology story, along with a business story. But the application of what to do, that is all Mao Zedong, praise the Great Helmsman!

There is the peculiar point in Marxist Leninist theory, that the right wing always tries to come back. Mao got this endless revolution idea from that. What Chairman Mao also was concerned about, was the revolution was too young and not ready - and should the reactionary forces in society and the world strike back at that time, the revolution could lose and be annihilated for good.

Hence, the inescapable logic here, is that once the war against the Imperialist starts, the aristocrat traditionally was the imperialist, there is no turning back. There will be no stalemate. Only one side can come out of this alive. Either you overthrow the old order, or it kills you for good.

If the tech industry inside China fought the tech war against the Imperialist tech when it was too young or too immature or not ready, it could be wiped out. Permanently. Chinese tech could be wiped out, or relegated to 4 or 5 generations behind, which makes China poor again.

I think that is the idea behind what they were doing.

They waited until they were ready, and this tech could be close to ready, there is no turning back. Grandpa Xi said it was time, yeah baby! Go for it.

That is why I believe comrade Deng's advice of keeping your head down had to be cast off. It became untenable, and there could be another one of these fights between the usurper (ie peasants, Huawei) and the established order (lead by imperialists power last 500 years).

That is why China should have not done anything but take the blows, then when it was ready and time to attack, there is no turning back.

Just my 2 cents.

:)
 
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ansy1968

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You know what America scxxw you. Japan is our new daddy hehehehe. Now we know the reason why Japan won't ban Huawei.... and had the courage to DE-AMERICANIZED their production to supply Huawei. And now all Chinese tech company are doing the same, stockpiling and preparing for a possible sanction.

from cnTechPost

Xiaomi, OPPO reportedly stockpiling Japanese parts and increasing production significantly
2020-10-18 17:30:24 GMT+8 | cnTechPost
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Xiaomi, OPPO reportedly stockpiling Japanese parts and increasing production significantly-cnTechPost

Japanese electronic parts makers received large stockpiling orders from Chinese handset makers such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo to fill the loss of orders from Huawei, according to
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Huawei's orders were suspended after US sanctions took effect on September 15. Still, a surge in demand from rivals such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo filled the gap, according to the report on Friday. Some customers are looking for Japanese technology, fearing that the US could extend the ban to other Chinese companies.

Total smartphone shipments are expected to fall for the fourth consecutive time in 2020, according to market researcher IDC. A 10 percent decrease to 1.2 billion units, due in part to Covid-19. However, some manufacturers have more aggressive production plans to fill Huawei's market share.
Apple recently announced to its suppliers that it plans to produce 220 million iPhones this year, 10 percent more than it previously expected. Xiaomi and OPPO are looking to seriously ramp up production in 2021, according to several of their suppliers, to reach a goal of 200 million phones each, which is more than half of what they will produce in 2020.

Huawei is expected to produce about 190 million phones this year, 20 percent less than in 2019. While Huawei has stockpiles of spare parts to minimize the immediate impact of sanctions, these reserves can only go so far. The company is thought to have about six months' worth of parts, with production expected to fall from the first quarter of 2021.
TDK Corporation, a Japanese electronic parts maker, expects other companies to purchase more than Huawei's lost business. An employee of a major Japanese electronic parts maker said, "Orders at the end of September are already at a record high, and some manufacturers are planning to double their production plans for next year."

Chipmaker Renesas Electronics Corp. was asked by a Chinese customer to have a non-US engineer redesign a specific product at a factory outside the United States. Zuken, a supplier of circuit board design software, reports growing interest from companies in China and elsewhere in finding alternatives to US-made tools.
In addition, suppliers are distancing themselves from the US in order to continue doing business with Huawei. Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. has begun using Japanese-made equipment instead of some US equipment to test components for Huawei's base stations.
However, one supplier warned that this is a special one-time demand boost that may be adjusted in early 2021.
 
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TD739

Junior Member
Registered Member
horse said:
This is my impression of Chinese Communism and how strategy is executed by the party.

But first, that article, that is typical aristocratic thinking. Those on top, will remain on top, forever. Like Orwell wrote about a boot stamping on a human face, forever!

Although, this ban on Huawei and SMIC by the Imperialist to deny them semi-conduct chips in order to cripple them, that is a technology story, along with a business story. But the application of what to do, that is all Mao Zedong, praise the Great Helmsman!

There is the peculiar point in Marxist Leninist theory, that the right wing always tries to come back. Mao got this endless revolution idea from that. What Chairman Mao also was concerned about, was the revolution was too young and not ready - and should the reactionary forces in society and the world strike back at that time, the revolution could lose and be annihilated for good.

Hence, the inescapable logic here, is that once the war against the Imperialist starts, the aristocrat traditionally was the imperialist, there is no turning back. There will be no stalemate. Only one side can come out of this alive. Either you overthrow the old order, or it kills you for good.

If the tech industry inside China fought the tech war against the Imperialist tech when it was too young or too immature or not ready, it could be wiped out. Permanently. Chinese tech could be wiped out, or relegated to 4 or 5 generations behind, which makes China poor again.

I think that is the idea behind what they were doing.

They waited until they were ready, and this tech could be close to ready, there is no turning back. Grandpa Xi said it was time, yeah baby! Go for it.

That is why I believe comrade Deng's advice of keeping your head down had to be cast off. It became untenable, and there could be another one of these fights between the usurper (ie peasants, Huawei) and the established order (lead by imperialists power last 500 years).

That is why China should have not done anything but take the blows, then when it was ready and time to attack, there is no turning back.

Just my 2 cents.

:)
Click to expand...
Xi is no mao though. If mao still alive he would order the country prepare for self sufficiency long before the tech war and even if goes against market direction. Xi had the slogan but short on implementation and he doesn't enforcing the action.
 
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ansy1968

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TD739 said:
Xi is no mao though. If mao still alive he would order the country prepare for self sufficiency long before the tech war and even if goes against market direction. Xi had the slogan but short on implementation and he doesn't enforcing the action.
Click to expand...
Hi TD739,

Xi had the slogan but short on implementation and he doesn't enforcing the action.

Mao is to blame for the present problem due to his Cultural revolution, right now his successor are correcting the mistake he made.

Their solution

1) You need to establish the foundation first, done during Deng era

2) you need market to sell , done during Jiang era

3) you need company that can innovate and be competitive , done during Hu era

4) consolidating all the gain and focus on new tech plus localization currently being address by Xi.

We have to wait until 2025, to see if Xi can accomplished its goal, then we can passed judgment.
 
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BrightFuture

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