AMD employees in China will be the net winners.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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antiterror13
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Why and what is the logic/explanation of it?
Intel is getting a lot of government support to bring back Semi manufacturing to the US. AMD went on the fabless TSMC path and sold their own fabricator global foundry. TSMC is getting gutted by the US and will probably have to do some sort of tech transfer in the next 2~4 years to intel engineers. So in the future AMD and Apple might have to order their semi design fabrication from their competitor.
@BlackWindMnt bro they're culling the competition, the greatest weapon of a hegemonic power is monopoly. And from what I'm seeing TSMC had the power to fight back, they're the dominant player with monopolistic power of pricing on their wide range of product and lest we forget there is a chip shortage, now is the time to play both side as a strategy and fight back. People may say its impossible but they hold all the cards, if losing those tech is inevitable at least you try to gain some bargaining power by leveraging your advantages. TSMC need to grow some big BODA Balls, their company future is at stake. Good leader see the tree great leader see the forest, That anecdote best describe the difference between TSMC and Huawei. Leadership counts and I think SK will do what Huawei had done and fight back.
TSMC can't really fight back from Taiwan, they are really pushing the China will invade Taiwan narrative. I think mostly to prepare people for ASML or CYMER export bans. So people be like yeah we need to stop TSMC from getting EUV equipment can't let that fall into hands of the mainland.
So either TSMC services the west exclusive and lose the China market or TSMC will loose access to EUV equipment in 2023~2025 and later. Between a rock and hard place wouldn't want to be TSMC CEO or Taiwan leadership getting your economy gutted by your mafia overlord.
I notice it gets recommended as a buy by some stock analysts, but do they take the current US/China situation into account. When I looked into the stock, it has been on a slow trek downwards.
@BlackWindMnt I know bro but is there a middle ground? From the profit it had gain and the knowledge it hold, it can do its owned research and replaced those equipment? My gut feeling is Samsung is trying to go that route and may take at least 5 years, with some investment as part of their $100 billion dollars program. The time of pushing the envelope of Moore"s law smaller node maybe delayed as the cost multiply and escalated therefore the right money is to invest and owned the critical equipment. After reading and browsing the net I learned a lot of equipment used are manufactured by the Taiwanese themselves, only the EUVL and the materials used are foreign, so they had a great start to begin with.
In 1968, Alexander Dubcek was elected as First Secretary of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia. He advocated a moderate policy, the so called "socialism with a human face". The Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia later that year under the
In response to the invasion, Romania denounced the Soviet Union, Albania left the Warsaw Pact, and China split even further away. This split in the Warsaw Pact eventually led to the downfall of the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union itself because they could not tolerate a single small ally doing anything even a tiny bit different.
Hmm... I wonder, is there another power in this world today, that has to enforce its dictates by threat, and was strongly denounced by their allies who proceeded to distance themselves?
@FairAndUnbiased bro great analysis and from your thesis a Chinese EUVL the gamer changer or a catalyst?
It is important but there's not really one tool that is a game changer. Let's say that China had EUV but no reactive ion etcher. Then they can block that. Or no metrology tools. They can block that. Or a part, such as a wafer stage or optics. etc etc. Let's say that even a screw is imported. But how do we know that screw is not a screw made of a very specific steel grade that has highly constrained tolerances, tensile strength, surface cleanliness, etc? And that replacing it with a regular screw won't work?
It has to be a comprehensive supply chain in all ways.
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