Of course barriers always can be broken but the law of diminishing returns also apply, at some point consumers will not want to pay too much for by example CPUs or GPUs that only offer marginal performance with the same silicon of two years ago, then you have to rely in commercial hype gimmicks like RayTracing or lab transistors names like GAAFET or saying 20A instead of 2nm to get people to pay higher prices. Or wating until some weird Cryptocurrency appear so people pay higher prices for hardware expecting some return.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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They can try, but they're not in control here. The final customer is. at 10 nm. let's take a look at the trend chart again.
Going by the cost trend here we predict at the 5 nm node the SoC will surpass the display in cost (83% increase in costs, unit cost likely >$100) to become the most expensive part of the phone. At the 3 nm node the development costs will approach $1 billion USD and the SoC will dominate the price of the phone.
At this point, customers will likely already have everything they want in a 7 nm or 10 nm phone. Are they going to pay literally double (or, alternatively, will a phone OEM halve their profits) for something slightly better on paper that they can't really see the benefits of?
Yeah brother, new materials are the key for the future of the Chinese IC.
The engineering for the current 5nm then 3nm, is massive.
Too massive. That can only be done with over-engineering the current methods.
I'm not an engineer, but over-engineering is no different than anything else in life.
When we get to that point, we all know, that situation has reached its limits, and time for something new.
TSMC can put all its efforts to over-engineering the 7nm to 5nm then 3nm.
China should put all its efforts to figure out a new way of doing it.
Then SMIC talks to TSMC saying they will not wipe them out if they develop new materials and if they continue selling their stuff, out in the open for through the Ho Chi Min Trail.
I agree. You need new paradigms like new architectures, 3D stacking, new materials, etc. Simple die shrinking is going to hit a brick wall.
Looking at the chart, the biggest cost hike is the software?They can try, but they're not in control here. The final customer is. at 10 nm. let's take a look at the trend chart again.
Going by the cost trend here we predict at the 5 nm node the SoC will surpass the display in cost (83% increase in costs, unit cost likely >$100) to become the most expensive part of the phone. At the 3 nm node the development costs will approach $1 billion USD and the SoC will dominate the price of the phone.
At this point, customers will likely already have everything they want in a 7 nm or 10 nm phone. Are they going to pay literally double (or, alternatively, will a phone OEM halve their profits) for something slightly better on paper that they can't really see the benefits of?
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."They can try, but they're not in control here. The final customer is. at 10 nm. let's take a look at the trend chart again.
Going by the cost trend here we predict at the 5 nm node the SoC will surpass the display in cost (83% increase in costs, unit cost likely >$100) to become the most expensive part of the phone. At the 3 nm node the development costs will approach $1 billion USD and the SoC will dominate the price of the phone.
At this point, customers will likely already have everything they want in a 7 nm or 10 nm phone. Are they going to pay literally double (or, alternatively, will a phone OEM halve their profits) for something slightly better on paper that they can't really see the benefits of?
Not just software but also fab companies. Every single less competitor is an increase in fabrication prices.
China and SMIC will solve this rising costs.
China and SMIC will break this technology and flood the market with reasonable prices.
No, I mean the bottleneck isn't tools to fab the chip but software to design them?
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