This is more reasonable. A surface profilometer has a few angstrom resolution and would be able to measure sub-nm features. Picometer on the other hand is literally smaller than the bond length of silicon.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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Now this is a very interesting discussion. @BoraTas, where are the values for the surface roughness of the optics coming from? I couldn't find them in the links you provided. A parameter I ran into in my casual reading about EUV optics is "mirror wavefront aberration" - and that usually given as RMS (I believe that means root mean square). Do you know how that relates to the measures you're using?
There seems to be a critical value for that parameter which is λ/30 where λ is the wavelength of light (13.5nm in the case of EUV). The value for a full-fat EUV (below 7nm) is 0.45nm RMS. CIOMP demonstrated a 0.75nm RMS machine in 2017, which can do features 22nm-32nm.
I think the best means we have of broadly estimating progress without getting too deep into the technical weeds is comparing milestones. ASML had similar machines to the CIOMP demonstrator in 2013, so it's roughly 4 years ahead of China. Since it delivered the EUV to TSMC in 2019, we can extrapolate a 2023-2024 delivery date for a device similar to the NXE3400 in China. This matches up nicely with the estimates we have.
There seems to be a critical value for that parameter which is λ/30 where λ is the wavelength of light (13.5nm in the case of EUV). The value for a full-fat EUV (below 7nm) is 0.45nm RMS. CIOMP demonstrated a 0.75nm RMS machine in 2017, which can do features 22nm-32nm.
I think the best means we have of broadly estimating progress without getting too deep into the technical weeds is comparing milestones. ASML had similar machines to the CIOMP demonstrator in 2013, so it's roughly 4 years ahead of China. Since it delivered the EUV to TSMC in 2019, we can extrapolate a 2023-2024 delivery date for a device similar to the NXE3400 in China. This matches up nicely with the estimates we have.
Sorry to disrupt an interesting discussion, I'll just post this (having holding this one for a time now and don't want to interrupt) and please continue I'm all ears.
China Focusing on new material (carbon based) if done properly may elevate Chinese tech company (with gov't and state institution support) with less legacy cost issue due to being a late comer. That transition is like the Chinese bypassing the laptop and straight to smartphone. Now with the 14th 5 year plan we can see the Chinese transitioning from being a follower to a leader, let's hope it pan out as plan as the challenges are enormous and had a lot of unknown.
China Focusing on new material (carbon based) if done properly may elevate Chinese tech company (with gov't and state institution support) with less legacy cost issue due to being a late comer. That transition is like the Chinese bypassing the laptop and straight to smartphone. Now with the 14th 5 year plan we can see the Chinese transitioning from being a follower to a leader, let's hope it pan out as plan as the challenges are enormous and had a lot of unknown.
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It's like if the entire semiconductor industry hit a wall.You are correct the increasing costs of EUV systems are going to eat the semiconductor industry from inside at least for a while.
There's always Doubting Thomas articles like this about lithography, and in every single case the barriers are broken. 3nm on time is a certainty, you can bet your house on it. The money is irrelevant, the investments are irrelevant, and the difficulties are irrelevant - this is literally the only advanced industry Taiwan has, no one's lining up to buy aircraft from them. If TSMC loses its edge, they'll all become pineapple farmers.
The advancements will stop like they stopped in clock speeds: when physics says they stop.
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Bet the ASML and SMEE (or whoever brings the Chinese EUVL to market) will be charging close to $1 billion for the latest NA 0.6 EUVL machine by 2030.
Yeah brother, new materials are the key for the future of the Chinese IC.
The engineering for the current 5nm then 3nm, is massive.
Too massive. That can only be done with over-engineering the current methods.
I'm not an engineer, but over-engineering is no different than anything else in life.
When we get to that point, we all know, that situation has reached its limits, and time for something new.
TSMC can put all its efforts to over-engineering the 7nm to 5nm then 3nm.
China should put all its efforts to figure out a new way of doing it.
Then SMIC talks to TSMC saying they will not wipe them out if they develop new materials and if they continue selling their stuff, out in the open for through the Ho Chi Min Trail.
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