Chinese semiconductor industry

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Topazchen

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krautmeister said:
Imo, I absolutely consider it a policy failure because it is the China government relying on the chicken and egg situation while ignoring the strategic realities. In a geostrategic situation like we've had since the Pivot to Asia, there is literally no choice but to invest heavily even in those things that seem impossible. The alternative is surrender. Since China didn't bow down before America like Japan did, they should have naturally went all out. Instead, China continued to underfund core technologies in order to maximize profits in the most feasible commercial areas it was closest to achieving. This is exactly what American strategists count on to happen. I'm not advocating ONLY investment in core technologies and ONLY focusing on weaknesses. This is not a binary choice. However, China made the fatal mistake of trusting globalization as if the American control freaks would never touch it because they've been promoting it since WWII.

Those previously believed impossible goals of indigenizing semiconductor equipment and materials was once believed to be out of reach for at least 10+ years, if ever. That was the consensus opinion from industry experts only 3 years ago! It wasn't until Trump used the sledgehammer that it forced China on the path it is now. If industrial policy emphasized semiconductor equipment and materials back in the early days of the Pivot to Asia, we would be 5 years earlier in the game and China would have DUV comparable to Nikon/ASML, TSMC/Samsung now and probably have commercialized EUV by 2020.
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Don't be too hard on the government. Saying that they neglected foundational technologies 20 years ago is like expecting India today to start tech independence journey.
It was still a poor, no critical engineering mass and had different priorities.

Hindsight is always 20/20 but no one could have foreseen an America blocking foreign companies working with Chinese ones because they use parts that have 10 % American content.


China went for the low hanging fruits and they reaped big. Flooding the world with cheap electronics has enabled Chinese firms to accumulate capital and experience and the recent American actions have all Asian firms on supply chain alert.

The best thing to have happened to the Chinese SEM sector is the recent bans because it's a case of thrive or die. The external motivation was needed to turbo kick the laggards.

I'm sure by 2030, we'll all thank Trump and Pompeo
 
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WTAN

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jfcarli said:
Interesting 4 page report on SMEE and 28nm lithography equipment.

What is particularly worrying is:

"
1. Optical systems

A representative of Changchun UP Optotech Co., Ltd., SMEE's optical system supplier,
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(link in Chinese) that the company did not participate in the latest lithography machine research project. Another supplier, Beijing GuoWang Optics Co., Ltd.,
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(link in Chinese) that it is expecting to finish its foundry construction by September 2023. This new plant will make possible the mass-production of the optical system for ArF immersion lithography. With its key suppliers in this segment facing some difficulties, SMEE might not complete a new ArF immersion stepper this year.

2. Light sources

SMEE's primary light source system supplier Beijing RSLaser Opto-Electronics Technology Co., Ltd. (RSLaser) has delivered the first domestic 40W 4kHz ArF light source. However, TWINSCAN NXT:1980Di, an ASML-designed machine currently used to make chips at 28nm, employs a 60W 6kHz ArF laser. Now, RSLaser's team has to make a giant technical leap, so that SMEE can finish the whole machine on time."

Here is the report

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I discussed the Guowang Optics expansion project a while ago with someone here. (cant remember his name, Tidalwave?)
This is basically a newly constructed facility specially built for mass production. Guowangs current facility is too small. The Optics has already been sucessfully developed by Guowang Optics as part of the 02 Special Project.

RS Laser developed its first 40W Arf Laser which "Passed Acceptance" in 2017.
The 60W Arf Laser has already been developed for the SMEE 28nm DUVL.
That is why the SMEE Insider mentioned that this SMEE 28nm DUVL is equivalent to the ASML 1980i.
The 1980i was used by TSMC to fabricate its first DUVL-Made First Gen 7nm Chip.
Everything is going according to plan with mass production of 28nm Chips late this year.
 
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Tyler

Captain
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jfcarli said:
This is not entirely bad news. YMTC is also testing 192 layers which is more than SAMSUNG can presently do. If they manage to sort out yields of both 128 and 198 layers, YMTC will become the top dog as far as NAND memory is concerned.

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YMTC flooding the market and displacing Samsung with nand memory should have long term strategic implication. When are they selling their SSD on amazon?
 
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ansy1968

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WTAN said:
I discussed the Guowang Optics expansion project a while ago with someone here. (cant remember his name, Tidalwave?)
This is basically a newly constructed facility specially built for mass production. Guowangs current facility is too small. The Optics has already been sucessfully developed by Guowang Optics as part of the 02 Special Project.

RS Laser developed its first 40W Arf Laser which "Passed Acceptance" in 2017.
The 60W Arf Laser has already been developed for the SMEE 28nm DUVL.
That is why the SMEE Insider mentioned that this SMEE 28nm DUVL is equivalent to the ASML 1980i.
The 1980i was used by TSMC to fabricate its first DUVL-Made First Gen 7nm Chip.
Everything is going according to plan with mass production of 28nm Chips late this year.
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@WTAN Sir for SMEE 28NM DUVL to achieved comparable performance to ASML 2050i is to increase the Arf laser to 90W?
 
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jfcarli

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Tyler said:
YMTC flooding the market and displacing Samsung with nand memory should have long term strategic implication. When are they selling their SSD on amazon?
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"Under the brand name Zhitai, the drives will be sold at JD.com and other retailers for RMB369 for the 256GB version and RMB529 for the 512GB version. That said, consumers are currently unable to purchase the drives as they are out of stock—we believe that the firm’s production quantity is limited."

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krautmeister

krautmeister

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Topazchen said:
Don't be too hard on the government. Saying that they neglected foundational technologies 20 years ago is like expecting India today to start tech independence journey.
It was still a poor, no critical engineering mass and had different priorities.

Hindsight is always 20/20 but no one could have foreseen an America blocking foreign companies working with Chinese ones because they use parts that have 10 % American content.


China went for the low hanging fruits and they reaped big. Flooding the world with cheap electronics has enabled Chinese firms to accumulate capital and experience and the recent American actions have all Asian firms on supply chain alert.

The best thing to have happened to the Chinese SEM sector is the recent bans because it's a case of thrive or die. The external motivation was needed to turbo kick the laggards.

I'm sure by 2030, we'll all thank Trump and Pompeo
Click to expand...
I greatly admire how well the China government has planned and governed overall. They didn't neglect foundational technologies 20 years ago as @Nutrient pointed out. It's what they didn't do in the last 10 years after the Pivot to Asia. Like where TSMC is allowed to have their 28nm expansion plan subsidized by local governments or where local semiconductor design firms are incentivized to outsource their designs to foreign fabs at the expense of domestic fabs. Stuff like this is clearly harmful to China but those local government officials are rewarded for it because the incentive structure and FDI rules lack enough detail and expert guidance.

I totally agree with your Trump/Pompeo stance. China is not perfect, so it needs things to make up for its imperfections. Trump, Pompeo, Ron Vara and the rest, were the perfect rallying cry for American worshippers to be bluntly shown some American hospitality. A steady stream of anti-China propaganda, Asian hate crimes and targeted anti-Chinese racism is what the doctor ordered to this.
 
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