Chinese semiconductor industry

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Nutrient

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All links along the supply chain are important but some links are more important than others. CORE technologies, meaning those technologies needed for everything else, are the most important because they are held by few, but used by many. China's stated 70% self-sufficiency in ICs by 2025 is meaningless without the core capabilities needed to create those ICs in the face of tech sanctions. China could always ramp up IC self-sufficiency if they had total self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment and materials. If it had 100% IC self-sufficiency without 100% self-sufficiency in IC production technology and materials, any sanctions along the production chain would immediately destroy their "supposed" IC self-sufficiency.

Core technologies, just like anything else that is held by few, but used by many, are an important tool the West uses to control the world. Whether that control is in the form of semiconductor equipment & materials, turbofan engines, US Dollar, SWIFT, GPS, ARM, etc., it all still comes down to control. This is why China is that guy, that threat to the Anglo-American empire that the Soviet Union never was. Unlike the Soviet Union, China has the ability to break every single choke point technology control mechanism the West has. Like I've said before, the US are control freaks.

A country with limited resources would focus on developing the most important bits (the core technologies), yes. But China has enormous resources; these enable the country to advance everywhere at the same time. China can be totally self-sufficient -- and should be self-sufficient, as there is almost no weakness the Americans will not attack. Of course, the US has weaknesses too, and I am sure that China knows this.
 

krautmeister

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All links along the supply chain are important but some links are more important than others. CORE technologies, meaning those technologies needed for everything else, are the most important because they are held by few, but used by many. China's stated 70% self-sufficiency in ICs by 2025 is meaningless without the core capabilities needed to create those ICs in the face of tech sanctions. China could always ramp up IC self-sufficiency if they had total self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment and materials. If it had 100% IC self-sufficiency without 100% self-sufficiency in IC production technology and materials, any sanctions along the production chain would immediately destroy their "supposed" IC self-sufficiency.
A country with limited resources would focus on developing the most important bits (the core technologies), yes. But China has enormous resources; these enable the country to advance everywhere at the same time. China can be totally self-sufficient -- and should be self-sufficient, as there is almost no weakness the Americans will not attack. Of course, the US has weaknesses too, and I am sure that China knows this.
I think we are both saying China should be fully self-sufficient but in different ways. I am pointing out that China should have set higher priorities on certain supply chain items. That means it should have self-sufficiency in entire supply chains but PRIORITIZE on core areas like strategic control of key technologies and materials, just as ASML, Cymer, AMAT, Tokyo Electron, TOK, ARM, Synopsis/Cadence, etc have control of key items. Before the tech war began, China's strategy focused on semiconductor design and fabrication where local governments would go on to subsidize imports of those domestically designed semiconductors. In other words, China impeded its own semiconductor equipment and fabrication industry by subsidizing foreign fabrication of domestically designed ICs, including mature IC nodes like >=28nm. That harmed all domestic fab companies like SMIC and Huahong while indirectly supporting TSMC, Global Foundries, UMC, etc, none of which use China semiconductor equipment, with the exception of TSMC using 5nm etching equipment from AMEC. That was a dramatic policy failure because even though they had plans for across the board semiconductor self-sufficiency, they didn't focus on core technologies and materials that were controlled by hostile foreign countries. They allocated the lions share of semiconductor funds toward IC self-sufficiency while providing relatively miniscule funding to the equipment & materials industry. It's only because of the tech war sanctions that we even have this intense drive towards semiconductor equipment & materials self-sufficiency.
 

jfcarli

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Setback for YMTC.

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This is not entirely bad news. YMTC is also testing 192 layers which is more than SAMSUNG can presently do. If they manage to sort out yields of both 128 and 198 layers, YMTC will become the top dog as far as NAND memory is concerned.

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ansy1968

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Nutrient

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I think we are both saying China should be fully self-sufficient but in different ways.
Yes, I think we are saying basically the same thing.


In other words, China impeded its own semiconductor equipment and fabrication industry by subsidizing foreign fabrication of domestically designed ICs, including mature IC nodes like >=28nm. That harmed all domestic fab companies like SMIC and Huahong while indirectly supporting TSMC, Global Foundries, UMC, etc, none of which use China semiconductor equipment, with the exception of TSMC using 5nm etching equipment from AMEC. That was a dramatic policy failure because even though they had plans for across the board semiconductor self-sufficiency, they didn't focus on core technologies and materials that were controlled by hostile foreign countries.
I think I understand what you mean now. My impression is that China didn't focus on even core technologies because it could not do so: 15 years ago, the underlying technological base did not exist. So the Party developed what it could, the more software-like chip designs. I would not call it a policy failure; it was rather a lack of feasible alternatives.

Now the situation is different. The Middle Kingdom has comprehensive technologies, or will soon develop them with internal resources. Total self-sufficiency is possible in semiconductors now.

Of course, if China's semiconductor ecosystem dominates the local market, the US companies will suffer -- not only from lack of access to the largest semiconductor market in the world by far, but also from heavy, ever-increasing competition in their own markets from the Chinese firms. I won't cry for the Americans; they started the tech war, and they lied a lot about China. They have richly earned their comeuppance.
 
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