Unlikely.
Immense capital is needed for semiconductors and profits determine the amount of capital. Banning chips will wipe out the profits for sustained investments.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Immense capital is needed for semiconductors and profits determine the amount of capital. Banning chips will wipe out the profits for sustained investments.
Hey man, here is that old article from 2018, which I would believe was based on industry consultants on the state of the telecom industry and the rollout of 5G. That graph seems to be accurate, in that China did start it's 5G standalone rollout last year.
Since the US government could not stop or slow down Huawei from rolling out the standalone networks in China, and that Huawei still had many international customers, including NATO members like Spain and Italy, the Trump administration basically tried to ban China itself and all Chinese tech with their semiconductor restrictions.
That's it I guess. China must cancel that Mars mission, no chance of that ever landing!
I use this chart to keep score, of what is happening. Unless we read something different, then that chart is what is happening. Too much fake news, so I am forced to use a 3 year old article to just read the news.
December 13, 2018
This is a very curious "war" in chips.
It is every man for himself, so to speak. Everyone wants to be number #1 - the USA, China, Korea, Taiwan.
We do not know what will happen. China will probably boycott American chips sooner or later. It is what that Huawei executive said, trust in the industry had been broken.
You get the feeling there will be some big winners and maybe some big losers out of this.
Check out the chart, the chart with the lines. There are big losers in the IC industry.
The United States and China basically in the same boat in this war.
Both will be expanding chip making capacity. They are the same as we have to expect they will boycott each other's chips, but one market for chips is 10x time larger than the other market.
Then what about the anti-China restrictions from American lawmakers? Will that last forever, or collapse?
When TSMC and Samsung invests so much money in the future production of chips, they have to sell it to somebody!
Doesn't it seem like the Americans don't really have strategy? A coherent strategy? Wishful thinking is for dreamers and stoners. Seems like their specialty. You got to be ruthless in business. You got to play to win. Look at what TSMC and Samsung are doing. Do we think they are looking at the Americans and decided to take such drastic actions?
Seems to me that TSMC and Samsung more like looking past the Americans, with their aggressive investments.
I feel like that too. People don't know how cutthroat the industry is how low the profit margins are for most designers. A fab needs fabless companies and fabless companies need consumers to exist. Without a large consumer base, any attempt to make an advanced chip (both in design and manufacturing) is likely to end up with a financial disaster. This is even more true these days.When TSMC and Samsung invests so much money in the future production of chips, they have to sell it to somebody!
Doesn't it seem like the Americans don't really have strategy? A coherent strategy? Wishful thinking is for dreamers and stoners. Seems like their specialty. You got to be ruthless in business. You got to play to win. Look at what TSMC and Samsung are doing. Do we think they are looking at the Americans and decided to take such drastic actions?
Seems to me that TSMC and Samsung more like looking past the Americans, with their aggressive investments.
There are very few applications that would justify spending $550 m on a single design. Most of these need massive consumer bases to be profitable. Fab costs are increasing rapidly too.
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Huh, looks like a 2nm chip design could cost $1 billion.
@Tyler bro step by step, 28nm check to be mass produced, 14nm check next year and 7nm maybe late next year to 2023, that is for the domesticated line, right now SMIC is mass producing 14nm, N+1 (8NM) this year and maybe N+2 late this year. If the domesticated 14nm and 7nm line is finished, we can flood the market and let it run its course. From my thinking TSMC, Samsung and Intel is focusing on mass production of 5nm and below knowingly that it will take China at least 4 years (EUVL) to catch up, surrendering the 7nm, 14nm and 28nm processes to the Chinese. But it has its drawback to many producers chasing to few customers, those 5nm chips and below are niche products and the West policy makers is to preoccupied with lower nodes not knowing the significant of other processes and the latest chip shortages is a result of that policy.
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