Maybe but I would not underestimate the U.S. They play a very long game. This story shows that ASM Lithography's monopoly on EUV is not an accident but is a product of U.S. industrial policy. This article from early 1999 shows what promises ASML made at the time (when it was a tiny company) to the U.S. Department of Energy and consortium of Intel/Motorola/AMD:
-ASML agreed that 55 percent of the components used in its commercial EUV systems sold in the United States would be sourced from U.S.-based suppliers
-ASML has agreed to build a factory in the U.S., similar to its Netherlands facility. The factory will supply 100 percent of all ASML's sales in the United States.”
- ASML agreed to establish an American research and development center.
At that time ASML was a tiny company with less than 10% market share. Basically all of ASML today is just a US government project to replace Nikon. Japan also launched an $85 million EUV effort in the late 1990's but apparently it didn't succeed. I wonder why not?
Never underestimate your adversary. We can score a similar victory with Carbon nano tubes. Lete run TSMC out of business.