Chinese semiconductor industry

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voyager1

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mderfox said:
Its not weird but a classic capitalist system. Lets say China manage develop EUV, ASML will immediately sell EUV tools to China. Then chinese company will got on dilemma either buy or face fierce competition.

Why China indigenous product fail because of competition. Currently ASML EUVL is completely monopoly, practically they can put any price and condition to customer and price is very expensive. Meanwhile in the process they already get ROI back. Once competition coming in they can put price very cheaply on reason technology mature to avoid anti-dumping law.

That's why Chinese company (public or pribate) very hard to develop their own indigenous tech. Competition in China is cutthroat than any capitalist country on the world. They need survive first than develop their own tech in the process they already to late. If not central government intervention and US sanctions hard to any china company to innovation. Among Chinese company that have innovation already sanctions by US.
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This will be solved by tariffs on imported IC equipment.

First step, on 2022 Q2 when the 28nm DUV manchine becomes available, slap a nice fat 100% tariff on importing foreign 28nm DUV equipment.

If ASML wants to play hardball then bring it on. China will kill ASML's old process equipment sales on first half of 2022 in China
 
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mderfox

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ansy1968 said:
@mderfox And it also help that Germany and Japan don't restrict its company and even let the Chinese bought KUKA and now most of them had factory in China. The same thing is happening in the semi conductor sector. The banning force the Chinese to develop its own and when they had develop a successful product the ban will be lifted. Its a nuance on China part but deep inside they are thankful cause it made them self sufficient, with SMEE 28NM DUVL coming on stream ASML will break ranks with the US and sell their DUVL. The Chinese had been calm ever since Trump implement his sanction against the Chinese company, they had played this game before and know how to win it.
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Game already changed. Western alliance already tightening their loopholes. At the same times China force to liberate part of their economy. Hell even tesla got subsidy and own 100% share(before need to hand over 51% share).

Hope central government have solution with current mess, who know maybe next CAS will get sanctions by US.
 
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voyager1

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mderfox said:
Game already changed. Western alliance already tightening their loopholes. At the same times China force to liberate part of their economy. Hell even tesla got subsidy and own 100% share(before need to hand over 51% share).

Hope central government have solution with current mess, who know maybe next CAS will get sanctions by US.
Click to expand...
CAS is ok. They "just" need more funding, better facilities and a better research environment. In 5 years it should be far stronger than today.

China is huge ship and it is taking time to change course. However when it does change it will carry temendous momentum behind it
 
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mderfox

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voyager1 said:
This will be solved by tariffs on imported IC equipment.

First step, on 2022 Q2 when the 28nm DUV manchine becomes available, slap a nice fat 100% tariff on importing foreign 28nm DUV equipment.

If ASML wants to play hardball then bring it on. China will kill ASML's old process equipment sales on first half of 2022 in China
Click to expand...
This easy to solve just make production inside China to avoid tariffs. This how they operate before, many company do this to avoid tariffs in different countries.

The worst case they JV with local company to produce tools.
 
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ansy1968

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mderfox said:
Game already changed. Western alliance already tightening their loopholes. At the same times China force to liberate part of their economy. Hell even tesla got subsidy and own 100% share(before need to hand over 51% share).

Hope central government have solution with current mess, who know maybe next CAS will get sanctions by US.
Click to expand...
@mderfox then game on bro, I don't want to sound cocky but China today is different from 10 years ago, and they are focusing on new tech and if they restrict its their lost cause China is their main market. Bro necessity and scarcity drives innovation, while competition breeds efficiency. China experiences both so let see who come out the winner in the end and I'm placing my bet on China even though I'm not a betting man...LOL
 
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voyager1

Captain
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mderfox said:
This easy to solve just make production inside China to avoid tariffs. This how they operate before, many company do this to avoid tariffs in different countries.

The worst case they JV with local company to produce tools.
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Come on man, lets not play games. We both know that if China Gov wants this to happen it Will happen.

They can just pass a law that on industries where China is sanctioned, it can limit foreign IP to enter the Chinese market on these sanctioned industries. Then they can say "We respect our WTO commitments, and this is a defencive measure against sanctions " yada, yada

There are plenty of valid excuses to pass this law to ban foreign IP if the industry is sanctioned by these countries.
 
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Kazuo Ken

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Registered Member
mderfox said:
Its not weird but a classic capitalist system. Lets say China manage develop EUV, ASML will immediately sell EUV tools to China. Then chinese company will got on dilemma either buy or face fierce competition.

Why China indigenous product fail because of competition. Currently ASML EUVL is completely monopoly, practically they can put any price and condition to customer and price is very expensive. Meanwhile in the process they already get ROI back. Once competition coming in they can put price very cheaply on reason technology mature to avoid anti-dumping law.

That's why Chinese company (public or pribate) very hard to develop their own indigenous tech. Competition in China is cutthroat than any capitalist country on the world. They need survive first than develop their own tech in the process they already to late. If not central government intervention and US sanctions hard to any china company to innovation. Among Chinese company that have innovation already sanctions by US.
Click to expand...
Brilliant post
 
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mderfox

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Registered Member
voyager1 said:
CAS is ok. They "just" need more funding, better facilities and a better research environment. In 5 years it should be far stronger than today.

China is huge ship and it is taking time to change course. However when it does change it will carry temendous momentum behind it
Click to expand...
CAS is very big with 60000 research and 114 institute with budget usd 15b. That's fat US likely to slaughter.
 
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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
mderfox said:
CAS is very big with 60000 research and 114 institute with budget usd 15b. That's fat US likely to slaughter.
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Its not that easy. The CAS has connections all over the world and makes it extremely difficult for a full sanction. Maybe some small sanctions are possible.

And lets not forget the Chinese bazooka. Digital Yuan.
If the Americans try to do something then China would be justified to start using Digital Yuan and steamrolling any resistance to it.
 
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