So far there's no proof that Korean chips contain US IP.
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Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Somewhere along supply chain use US IP.So far there's no proof that Korean chips contain US IP.
That's how Huawei get caught. There's is no way in reality any tech companies want to bypass US IP. Even the company can make indigenous electronics product somewhere along supply chain use US IP.
Currently Chinese company still play by US rule. Don't they realize, someday when they surpassed US, US can make new law invalidated all their patent in ground endangered national security.
Someone on reddit claimed very confidently that China won't be able to create an EUV machine this decade, and will have to spend hundreds of billions and decades to catch up, that semiconductors isn't like building normal factories blah blah
Looking at the facts I'd be inclined to agree with him. 28nm DUV is only coming out next year, not to mention all the other aspects dominated by the US like EDA software.
Realistically, when can China catch up to the west in semiconductor tech? Heck, is it possible it never catches up at all?
Looking at the facts I'd be inclined to agree with him. 28nm DUV is only coming out next year, not to mention all the other aspects dominated by the US like EDA software.
Realistically, when can China catch up to the west in semiconductor tech? Heck, is it possible it never catches up at all?
Someone on reddit claimed very confidently that China won't be able to create an EUV machine this decade, and will have to spend hundreds of billions and decades to catch up, that semiconductors isn't like building normal factories blah blah
Looking at the facts I'd be inclined to agree with him. 28nm DUV is only coming out next year, not to mention all the other aspects dominated by the US like EDA software.
Realistically, when can China catch up to the west in semiconductor tech? Heck, is it possible it never catches up at all?
I bet within 5 years China can produce her own EUV machine, as the current progress seems very good.
Graphene and Photon Chip will be a game changer.
Someone on reddit claimed very confidently that China won't be able to create an EUV machine this decade, and will have to spend hundreds of billions and decades to catch up, that semiconductors isn't like building normal factories blah blah
Looking at the facts I'd be inclined to agree with him. 28nm DUV is only coming out next year, not to mention all the other aspects dominated by the US like EDA software.
Realistically, when can China catch up to the west in semiconductor tech? Heck, is it possible it never catches up at all?
Is there any special reason that we should care about this random person's opinion on this matter, confidently expressed or otherwise? And since you already agreed with him/her, why bother to ask people here? Have you been following this thread?
Isn't a forum just a place for random people to discuss opinions? I didn't say I agreed with him, I said I was inclined to agree. I was simply looking for other opinionsIs there any special reason that we should care about this random person's opinion on this matter, confidently expressed or otherwise? And since you already agreed with him/her, why bother to ask people here? Have you been following this thread?
What is the sub reddit that post came from?Someone on reddit claimed very confidently that China won't be able to create an EUV machine this decade, and will have to spend hundreds of billions and decades to catch up, that semiconductors isn't like building normal factories blah blah
Looking at the facts I'd be inclined to agree with him. 28nm DUV is only coming out next year, not to mention all the other aspects dominated by the US like EDA software.
Realistically, when can China catch up to the west in semiconductor tech? Heck, is it possible it never catches up at all?
@Kazuo Ken bro allow me to repost again an excellent explanation from one of our esteem member @BoraTas .What is the sub reddit that post came from?
From Ollie Ranta (Pakistan defense forum)
Sometimes you find interesting text in surprising places: From
Bora Taş on January 30 2021
Lives in The Netherlands Computer scientist/chip designer.
"United States is pressuring the Netherlands to block the sale of EUV equipment to SMIC by Dutch company ASML is ultimately affecting China's dream in technology". How long US can resist China's development?
I think I am the perfect person to answer this. I have been working in the semiconductor industry for years, currently living in the Netherlands, lived and worked in China for 3 years, I know a lot of engineers from ASML (expecially after they hired hundreds of Turkish engineers). Let me tell you something: High-end semiconductor manufacturing is black magic. Both the processes and tools used for it are very complex. ASML’s EUV lithography machine is probably the most complex tool humankind ever developed since it stopped jumping between trees. It took billions of Euros and decades of experience to perfect it. Other experienced lithography machine suppliers failed at it. China has no experience in high-end semiconductor manufacturing tools with the exception of one-off/few-off prototypes.
ASML’s EUV lithography machine. Needs 41 semi-trucks to get transported, costs $150 million, has 100.000 major parts, has mirrors that need months of grinding to reach needed smoothness, needs multiple people with PhD’s as machine operators. Quite high-tech. Isn’t it?
Unfortunately, ASML is a very convenient target for the USA. The company uses a lot of critical parts from the USA but those parts don’t represent anything significant in the US economy in terms of their monetary value. Chinese electronics industry still depends on foreign chips so it can not threaten fabs with banning the sale of chips in China that were manufactured using ASML tools. Also, China isn’t a big customer of ASML too.
Is China hopeless? No.
1- All of those tools are engineered and made by humans, and the laws of physics are the same both in the Netherlands and China. If the Netherlands could, then there is no reason for anybody else to fail with the correct approach.
2- China is filthy rich compared to the Netherlands. Chinese economy is 17x of the Netherlands’, 9x of SK’s, 27x of Taiwan’s, 3+x of Japan’s. With state support, Chinese fabs and tool makers can hire the top people from the rest of the world with salaries ASML, LamResearch, AM, Synopsys, TSMC, Samsung, … simply can not compete with. A significant portion of these companies’ employees are expats anyway, most of them are just after money. In fact China is already doing this successfully with good results. For example, it already has a working EUV lithography machine prototype, already caught up with the rest in chip testing, packaging, wafer production, also its first immersion lithography machine (good enough for most things) is getting prepared for commercial use.
3- China is a scientific powerhouse on its own. It is the country with most patent applications, most research output, graduates more STEM students than any other country, 2nd largest R&D spender, has 11 universities in top 100. This leads us to my first point. If the Netherlands could, so can China if given enough time.
4- Catching up is much easier than innovating. Knowing something is possible and having a general knowledge of how it works make things much easier.
5- Time is on the Chinese side. Technology of semiconductors is close to maturity/stalling (choose the word depending on your view). If the development slows (which it does) it gives China the opportunity to catch-up. If a tech revolution happens, then the playing field evens out anyway.
6- You don’t need EUV for the most things. You don’t even need high-end processes for the most things. There is more to semiconductors than the latest smartphone processors, GPUs, and CPUs. Look at iPhone 12 teardown videos. You will see a lot of chips. Only one of them needs EUV. An average modern car has 250+ computers inside. That means thousands of chips. All of them are manufactured using old processes. This is even more true for military and space applications. Those use very old chips that are known to be reliable and secure.
Conclusion: Blocking ASML from selling EUV machines to China can hurt Chinese businesses for some time but in the grand scheme it is insignificant. The USA needs to run faster rather than keep trying to block China if it wants to preserve its dominance in tech.
Ah, Of course I know him. I even have made a comments toward that answer. Under the name Lim Abdullah. That's me in Quora. Check it out.@Kazuo Ken bro allow me to repost again an excellent explanation from one of our esteem member @BoraTas .
From Ollie Ranta (Pakistan defense forum)
Sometimes you find interesting text in surprising places: From
Bora Taş on January 30 2021
Lives in The Netherlands Computer scientist/chip designer.
"United States is pressuring the Netherlands to block the sale of EUV equipment to SMIC by Dutch company ASML is ultimately affecting China's dream in technology". How long US can resist China's development?
I think I am the perfect person to answer this. I have been working in the semiconductor industry for years, currently living in the Netherlands, lived and worked in China for 3 years, I know a lot of engineers from ASML (expecially after they hired hundreds of Turkish engineers). Let me tell you something: High-end semiconductor manufacturing is black magic. Both the processes and tools used for it are very complex. ASML’s EUV lithography machine is probably the most complex tool humankind ever developed since it stopped jumping between trees. It took billions of Euros and decades of experience to perfect it. Other experienced lithography machine suppliers failed at it. China has no experience in high-end semiconductor manufacturing tools with the exception of one-off/few-off prototypes.
ASML’s EUV lithography machine. Needs 41 semi-trucks to get transported, costs $150 million, has 100.000 major parts, has mirrors that need months of grinding to reach needed smoothness, needs multiple people with PhD’s as machine operators. Quite high-tech. Isn’t it?
Unfortunately, ASML is a very convenient target for the USA. The company uses a lot of critical parts from the USA but those parts don’t represent anything significant in the US economy in terms of their monetary value. Chinese electronics industry still depends on foreign chips so it can not threaten fabs with banning the sale of chips in China that were manufactured using ASML tools. Also, China isn’t a big customer of ASML too.
Is China hopeless? No.
1- All of those tools are engineered and made by humans, and the laws of physics are the same both in the Netherlands and China. If the Netherlands could, then there is no reason for anybody else to fail with the correct approach.
2- China is filthy rich compared to the Netherlands. Chinese economy is 17x of the Netherlands’, 9x of SK’s, 27x of Taiwan’s, 3+x of Japan’s. With state support, Chinese fabs and tool makers can hire the top people from the rest of the world with salaries ASML, LamResearch, AM, Synopsys, TSMC, Samsung, … simply can not compete with. A significant portion of these companies’ employees are expats anyway, most of them are just after money. In fact China is already doing this successfully with good results. For example, it already has a working EUV lithography machine prototype, already caught up with the rest in chip testing, packaging, wafer production, also its first immersion lithography machine (good enough for most things) is getting prepared for commercial use.
3- China is a scientific powerhouse on its own. It is the country with most patent applications, most research output, graduates more STEM students than any other country, 2nd largest R&D spender, has 11 universities in top 100. This leads us to my first point. If the Netherlands could, so can China if given enough time.
4- Catching up is much easier than innovating. Knowing something is possible and having a general knowledge of how it works make things much easier.
5- Time is on the Chinese side. Technology of semiconductors is close to maturity/stalling (choose the word depending on your view). If the development slows (which it does) it gives China the opportunity to catch-up. If a tech revolution happens, then the playing field evens out anyway.
6- You don’t need EUV for the most things. You don’t even need high-end processes for the most things. There is more to semiconductors than the latest smartphone processors, GPUs, and CPUs. Look at iPhone 12 teardown videos. You will see a lot of chips. Only one of them needs EUV. An average modern car has 250+ computers inside. That means thousands of chips. All of them are manufactured using old processes. This is even more true for military and space applications. Those use very old chips that are known to be reliable and secure.
Conclusion: Blocking ASML from selling EUV machines to China can hurt Chinese businesses for some time but in the grand scheme it is insignificant. The USA needs to run faster rather than keep trying to block China if it wants to preserve its dominance in tech.
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