Chinese semiconductor industry

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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Lmao do you really guys believe that the US would hand over the crown and allow China to walk over them?

It is China's fault that it doesn't have domestic IC capabilities. Why should the US give technology to their enemies?

Do you think that the US is some kind of charity and it is obligated to sell advanced tech to China?

If China wants US tech, then it is very simple. Have Xi phone Biden and tell him that China will become another US vassal.

If you dont want China to become a US vassal then it should stop whining about semiconductors bans, and start developing their own tech.

All this conversation about China blaming the US, EU, Taiwan (TSMC) is quite tiring.

The only country to blame here is only one, China itself.


TLDR: Stop whining and expecting other countries generocity, and start building your own stuff

Actually there are very few people whining here although you're absolutely right. It's so tiring to hear that. China isn't whining. It's been working on it since the early 2000s and still quietly marching on and reacting. China probably never thought it would take the US this long to stop their own gravy train and eat some bitter medicine (in the interests of the US empire... contrary to China). These cards are the American's to play and they have.

You're right in that China should have scaled up domestic fab production sooner but you forget that everyone then needed the best and latest to be competitive. Domestic fab didn't offer as good as TAiwanese fab. Ergo domestic fab lines were rather limited. But did you notice that they exist? They're not too bad. If the US and Taiwan are on 6th gen fighters... China's own is a 4.5 gen and soon will have 5th gen as a certainty. The rest are either 0 gen or at best 1st gen. That's bloody good and could only have come about WITH corporate and government leadership understanding the strategic game and outplaying the US.

Also we are suspecting domestic fab lines are delivery low production rates for now but this is the minimum. Leaderships could also refrained from devoting money and resources at scaling them up when access was still full. They may have known it is relatively quick and easy to scale it up if the US bans and it makes no sense to mass produce your 4.5 gen when the other guy is on 6th gen. It would make better sense to put those resources into your own 5th gen when it is ready or if 4.5 is all you have but you need it now. Either way, I don't think that's a blunder at all - keeping domestic fab and foundries alive but not putting stock into them until the right time.

Fact Chinese modern foundries do exist. Fact...modern foundries are rarer than nuclear weapons and experimental fusion reactors. I'd say China's done as optimally as it could have and shows this was only possible with authoritarian determination. A purely capitalistic market/industry would have not built a single foundry based on domestic tech. India has like one for military applications using almost only foreign equipment from the 1990s era to the 2000s era, producing >100nm node chips as their absolute latest capability and advancing at a far slower rate. Why? 1. because it has less market and national incentive. 2. no government determination until recently with $1B offer to foreign company... Not a single one even looked at it. If they upped it to $50B maybe lol. Then there'd be many people trying for angles rather than genuine intention.

So China not only having foundries of relatively modern capability but also foundries that are using entirely Chinese equipment that China can make itself, that's enough to show they didn't drop the ball.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
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All of the supply chain folks are saying this even though all of them are at least on surface politically on US side, because they have had their lunches halved. They also feel that the money and resources won from continuing things as they were, means they get to keep their lead on China and any other competitor in whatever very specific niche field they're in.

If their income is halved, they would be running on less and would be progressing slower than if they had money made by supplying.

On the side, they're also worried that these actions by US has changed everything from China not heavily invested in going TOTALLY self sufficient and only partially invested, to completely losing Chinese patronage and money and China fully devoted to conquering whatever is left. And if and when China gets there, they would have even less food. In the background, TSMC and ASML execs are cursing the US. But that's already obvious and been shown to be the case. I just hope that TSMC execs and Taiwanese corporate and government leadership can see where they stand. Hopefully that's enough for them to favour China and convert feelings to actual help like allowing engineers and even hardware to get into PRC hands. The US is thinking it's time to plug Taiwan leaks. Then there's also the threat of reunification peaceful or forceful which means the US would lose access to TSMC.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Lmao do you really guys believe that the US would hand over the crown and allow China to walk over them?

It is China's fault that it doesn't have domestic IC capabilities. Why should the US give technology to their enemies?

Do you think that the US is some kind of charity and it is obligated to sell advanced tech to China?

If China wants US tech, then it is very simple. Have Xi phone Biden and tell him that China will become another US vassal.

If you dont want China to become a US vassal then it should stop whining about semiconductors bans, and start developing their own tech.

All this conversation about China blaming the US, EU, Taiwan (TSMC) is quite tiring.

The only country to blame here is only one, China itself.


TLDR: Stop whining and expecting other countries generocity, and start building your own stuff
But you too stop blaming the Chinese as a whole Yes the private sector make a blunder by not investing early on FAB. But the the government did their best by investing in science and technology foundation of semi production. But the fact is if you are under tech embargo it is hard to build Semi supply chain from scratch

Se the SMEE take almost 2 decades to built 90nm lithograph because no one make the component for lithograph machine They have to start finding manufacture to make those components first. And it is hard for any manufacture to make product they didn't see any profit right away. Not to speak about investment in tool, machinery, research and development.
The US has the luxury of sourcing the components from the western world, Japan, S Korea etc.
That is basically why development in China is slow because they have make the machinery, process, chemical firs t before attempting to make the product!

And as Ouguah said China is lucky that only now they set the motion of embargo were it 5 or 10 years ago China ambition in semi will be totally impossible.
 
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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
But you too stop blaming the Chinese as a whole Yes the private sector make a blunder by not investing early on FAB. But the the government did their best by investing in science and technology foundation of semi production. But the fact is if you are under tech embargo it is hard to build Semi supply chain from scratch

Se the SMEE take almost 2 decades to built 90nm lithograph because no one make the component for lithograph machine They have to start finding manufacture to make those components first. And it is hard for any manufacture to make product they didn't see any profit right away. Not to speak about investment in tool, machinery, research and development.

And as Ouguah said China is lucky that only now they set the motion of embargo were it 5 or 10 years ago China ambition in semi will be totally unfeasible.
I dont blame them too much. I blame them because they were worhsipping western technology (and some people still do...)

Anyway, I believe China's plans for getting the whole supply chain on IC are very ambitious and if it works (it will..) then the US sanctions are toast.

And let me note, that I personally find China's achievements on semiconductors extremely impressive however, more need to be done
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Now China has market forces working in its favour with bans. Previously domestic developers for fab tech (rare on earth than exp. fusion tech) had close to zero incentive to develop any fab tech. The CCP kept things running and F me they've done well it seems. Already capable of 28nm and pretty much down to 7nm. Now there market involved and MASSIVE profits to be had as opposed to almost none - chasing TSMC dragon with lower starting base and less resources. Now it's a full step and a half away with the absolute best aspects of the 5 nations and 1 breakaway province (lol) combined and incredible amounts of resources available to do the job. It's got about 5 years or so and if utter failure, gotta play the rare earths card and play it soon before the others start mining operations.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
I dont blame them too much. I blame them because they were worhsipping western technology (and some people still do...)

Anyway, I believe China's plans for getting the whole supply chain on IC are very ambitious and if it works (it will..) then the US sanctions are toast.

And let me note, that I personally find China's achievements on semiconductors extremely impressive however, more need to be done

But they weren't worshipping Taiwanese tech! They had to use it because it was the best available on the planet and good business sense so that all those Chinese tech giants could get to where they are!

In the background both Chinese gov and plenty of corporate initiative have been doing China right by developing own domestic fab tech.

You admit and know that Chinese fabless chip design, research development etc are all top notch and world leading now and has been for the last two to three years in both computing, communications tech, and smartphones at least... if not even more like simple white goods and smart devices of all varieties. Could Chinese domestic fab manufacture those chips? No way... not even now (and so why the US is playing these cards). So how could those Chinese products and chips be made? It wasn't worshipping Taiwan's tech and all the supply chain but it was out of necessity. In the background they've been working hard on fab tech as well but they never could pour lots of funding into it until access to TSMC and ASML etc was banned. There also wasn't market incentive for Chinese fab then. Now there is a ban which means you can only go with domestic and now there are market forces because there is trillions of RMB to be made.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
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Patent numbers AREN'T everything but they are a good indicator. No nation of scientific and tech capability has low patents count. Inverse true as well. While plenty of Chinese patents and papers are garbage, plenty are also great. Plenty of US patents are sham and scam patents too. Most in fact are pretty stupid and pointless on every side. Cited papers sort of better indicator and China's certainly up there as well. It's like IQ, it's far from everything but there's NEVER been a very low scorer who is overall very intellectual capable and there's never been a very high scorer who is intellectual incapable.

But this is not surprising. Seeing as even US's own AI industry is powered by such a proportion of Chinese born and even Chinese graduate (from Chinese universities) human talent. This forum has been graced by those stats a while ago. Something like nearly 30% of the US AI industry is Chinese born? lol The "American" part of it is also probably disproportionately Jewish along with Asian and European immigrants.

If the US did nothing to disrupt China at every corner, it would be getting too far for comfort in computing, comms, software AI etc.

If there are people who can be called "traitors" of China here, they are not CCP or Chinese corporate leaders who were at worst inactive in domestic fab, but those 30% etc of Chinese who contribute so meaningfully to American tech dominance. Many prefer the US because of politics and actually hate PRC and the commie thingo lol but even more are there because the Americans offer "better" lifestyles and life cultures etc if you ignore the crime, daily shootings (actually some towns are daily!), rampant mass shootings, hate crimes, rife racism, aggressiveness and other negatives... the truth is China has plenty of negatives of its own and on balance these people still previously considered the US a better place to work and live. Of course the pay is probably much better and they believe they're working for themselves rather than for the state.

If China could get to only a step and a half (at combined maximum!) behind the very selected best, with ONLY state initiatives and forces, imagine what it could do in time with these new levels of market forces and incentives. The state only need to manage it well and get rid of the muppets and fraudsters of which I'm sure would be gunning for the cash.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
China in chip design has gone in less than two decades from a researcher at a leading university being exposed as a fraud when he claimed he developed a DSP chip design to making their own advanced CPU designs. I think in one decade the Chinese semiconductor fabs will be the world leader in semiconductor manufacture capacity, and in another decade will be the world leader in advanced process as well.
 

Oldschool

Junior Member
Registered Member
Actually there are very few people whining here although you're absolutely right. It's so tiring to hear that. China isn't whining. It's been working on it since the early 2000s and still quietly marching on and reacting. China probably never thought it would take the US this long to stop their own gravy train and eat some bitter medicine (in the interests of the US empire... contrary to China). These cards are the American's to play and they have.

You're right in that China should have scaled up domestic fab production sooner but you forget that everyone then needed the best and latest to be competitive. Domestic fab didn't offer as good as TAiwanese fab. Ergo domestic fab lines were rather limited. But did you notice that they exist? They're not too bad. If the US and Taiwan are on 6th gen fighters... China's own is a 4.5 gen and soon will have 5th gen as a certainty. The rest are either 0 gen or at best 1st gen. That's bloody good and could only have come about WITH corporate and government leadership understanding the strategic game and outplaying the US.

Also we are suspecting domestic fab lines are delivery low production rates for now but this is the minimum. Leaderships could also refrained from devoting money and resources at scaling them up when access was still full. They may have known it is relatively quick and easy to scale it up if the US bans and it makes no sense to mass produce your 4.5 gen when the other guy is on 6th gen. It would make better sense to put those resources into your own 5th gen when it is ready or if 4.5 is all you have but you need it now. Either way, I don't think that's a blunder at all - keeping domestic fab and foundries alive but not putting stock into them until the right time.

Fact Chinese modern foundries do exist. Fact...modern foundries are rarer than nuclear weapons and experimental fusion reactors. I'd say China's done as optimally as it could have and shows this was only possible with authoritarian determination. A purely capitalistic market/industry would have not built a single foundry based on domestic tech. India has like one for military applications using almost only foreign equipment from the 1990s era to the 2000s era, producing >100nm node chips as their absolute latest capability and advancing at a far slower rate. Why? 1. because it has less market and national incentive. 2. no government determination until recently with $1B offer to foreign company... Not a single one even looked at it. If they upped it to $50B maybe lol. Then there'd be many people trying for angles rather than genuine intention.

So China not only having foundries of relatively modern capability but also foundries that are using entirely Chinese equipment that China can make itself, that's enough to show they didn't drop the ball.
I ask you last time which major chinese companies left TSMC still supplying.

It already cut off some of the major ones due to orders from US.

It set up a measly 16nm in Nanjing but 5nm in US. WTH is this?

You also aware Chinese forces massing across the strait. Military unification mode is on, do you? Anything is a fair game.
 
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Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
@WTAN and others,

Do the Taiwanese and TSMC specifically manufacture anything materially towards the semiconductor fabrication chain?

I'm pretty sure there ought to be some suppliers. Surely Taiwan and TSMC isn't just betting on Human resource as its input in the manufacturing chain
 
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