They are not useless per se, but they are definetely useless on what China needs now. Which is, first, domestic IC equipment, and second, foundries.
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Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Well you should expect them to work that way. In fact these examples and experience should really serve (to observers not CCP because they know) to show their game strategy and they have been very predictable. A predictable enemy is the easiest one to outsmart. You can probably already see how the US will act in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years time etc.
You're wrong about Chinese corporate and government leaders "allowing" this situation to transpire. You're wrong because you haven't been able to see or imagine the alternative timelines. There is no way Chinese planners have been caught with their pants down here. What's happened is it's been revealed how much push the Chinese powers have been giving to SC industry since decades. Without all that quiet work, there is no way China would be any more than India or Russia even now. In terms of SC overall, if US is 100, China is a 75, Russia would be 20, and India a 1. It's relatively easy to go from 1 to 50 let's say, especially if you have continued access to the entire supply chain, but since learning about this subject (the history of the politics and developments only), I didn't realise China was this competent in this field lol. If anything China is far more behind on turbofans than SCs.
US isn't depriving China of chips. China can design the best chips in the world. They currently do design some of the best chips in the world down to 5nm of all types already done. The US is just depriving China of EPA and EUV, the last two major things it hasn't conquered. Can the US stop China from producing 28nm chips? No. Can it stop China from producing 12/14nm chips now that it's starting to? No. Can the US stop China from producing 7nm when production is ready which some Chinese companies are already saying they are? No. So how is this US depriving China of chips as if all Chinese chips have disappeared overnight and China can never have a single chip after? It's nothing like that at all.
It's importing record numbers because it foresees bans disrupting things further and it wants to stockpile as a backup. Whatever it could buy last month, it would have. It's both a hedge against domestic efforts for 7nm and it can buy some time as well.
We'll have to see how Chinese fab proceeds from here.
So you are okay with this kind of sabotage?
Or maybe you think the 20 freescale semiconductor engineers that dissappeared on MH370 headed to Beijing was just coincidence as well as the ASML EUV machine that China ordered but caught on fire before it could be delivered...
Or America arbitrary and politicially motivated detention of Meng, or the fact they unilaterally lowered the deminiums from 25% to 10% and finally to zero...
Im guessing to you none of these hostile actions are considered US depriving China of chips and the semiconductor supply chain??
Also, many of those Chinese fabless developers/designers are world class and leading several fields. While that's not what they need for the problem of overcoming FAB for 7nm and beyond, it's worth continued work and progress. It has nothing to do with fabrication issues. It's not like Chinese fabless thrives on the blood of Chinese fab industry. Chinese fabless only show how competent and talented these people are. They're leading several fields... no stealing, no copying (using architecture isn't copying... everyone does it... you can't credit Indians for the work of modern engineers/mathematicians who use Hindu numerals for their maths). These talented people aren't working at the expense of Chinese fab tech/industry.
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My ratings for China IC sectors are:
Design - Very good, world class level, dynamic industry, strong innovation base and prospects for growth
Foundries - like 30/100 (maybe less), while they have foundries on old processes they dont have sufficient quantity, and they are too slow on ramping up production. Production capacity on 14nm is too low, need more Foundries.
IC equipment - probably 4-5 years max, for EUV tools. Production is still too low and the newer equipment need more testing (maybe enter full scale production in early 2022?)
Wildcard: New materials, or architectures can allow China to leapfrog the competition (important because with current materials the physical limit of 2nm will be reached soon.)
Design - Very good, world class level, dynamic industry, strong innovation base and prospects for growth
Foundries - like 30/100 (maybe less), while they have foundries on old processes they dont have sufficient quantity, and they are too slow on ramping up production. Production capacity on 14nm is too low, need more Foundries.
IC equipment - probably 4-5 years max, for EUV tools. Production is still too low and the newer equipment need more testing (maybe enter full scale production in early 2022?)
Wildcard: New materials, or architectures can allow China to leapfrog the competition (important because with current materials the physical limit of 2nm will be reached soon.)
Economic limit is probably at 3nm
This isn't really sabotage. It's something they can play and it's surprising they haven't played it much sooner.
Let me use an example for my point. If China in a sandbox universe was the only nation on earth which possessed the full means of producing a certain tool that made humans 100x more productive, and China is the undisputed superpower and recently found itself on a decline trajectory for the last 20 years. A new rising power with positive trajectory is partly getting those progress rates because China is selling (and making tidy profit) those magic tools to this rising power, would it not make sense to cut off supply immediately BEFORE that rising power manages to produce those tools that allow for 75x more productivity? Would China be foolish and aggressive to do that? Keeping in mind this is purely non kinetic! I don't think it would be unreasonable at all for China. In fact if China considered its right to rule so absolute, it ought to have done that and it would be a compassionate path because it's non-violent!
Now that tool is SCs and rather than cutting China off supplies (and losing profits) 20 years ago, the US has done is in 2021... an era where China equal leads the world in computing tech and leads in comm tech. An era where China can already produce this tool and give 75x productivity so even being cut off from 100x, it's not like sending it back to base. Not even remotely close.
The main reason the Americans didn't cut China off back then was because a combination of 1. They totally underestimated China's own abilities to develop its SCs industry by itself and with boosts in acquiring Taiwanese engineers etc and any espionage. 2. They still wanted to make lots of money from China not only in the sales of the equipment along the supply chain, but also the corporate profits that are made from China's manufacturing of their products for the most optimal cost-profit. 3. They didn't think China was this capable this quickly. 4. Cutting China off back then would mean they had to totally decouple 20 years ago and wouldn't have made so much money for their own progress engines... you gotta remember that they thought with all the money they are making from the setup, they should been accelerating faster than China. 5. They believed they would always progress at a faster rate than China and keeping things as they were, China eating a smaller fraction of the pie means they should have more energy for faster development rate which means always ahead of China.
So seems like they blundered and squandered all the resources they had. It is literally like the faster kid eating a bigger portion of the finite meal than the slower kid and then squandering it all by taking a nap during the race and finding that the "slower" kid who consumed the smaller energy meal, somehow is running at pretty unpredictable speeds lol. Basically they're sort of blew their advantage but there is still great advantage held by the US. It's just that China is far closer than they have thought and would prefer.
Lmao do you really guys believe that the US would hand over the crown and allow China to walk over them?
It is China's fault that it doesn't have domestic IC capabilities. Why should the US give technology to their enemies?
Do you think that the US is some kind of charity and it is obligated to sell advanced tech to China?
If China wants US tech, then it is very simple. Have Xi phone Biden and tell him that China will become another US vassal.
If you dont want China to become a US vassal then it should stop whining about semiconductors bans, and start developing their own tech.
All this conversation about China blaming the US, EU, Taiwan (TSMC) is quite tiring.
The only country to blame here is only one, China itself.
TLDR: Stop whining and expecting other countries generocity, and start building your own stuff
It is China's fault that it doesn't have domestic IC capabilities. Why should the US give technology to their enemies?
Do you think that the US is some kind of charity and it is obligated to sell advanced tech to China?
If China wants US tech, then it is very simple. Have Xi phone Biden and tell him that China will become another US vassal.
If you dont want China to become a US vassal then it should stop whining about semiconductors bans, and start developing their own tech.
All this conversation about China blaming the US, EU, Taiwan (TSMC) is quite tiring.
The only country to blame here is only one, China itself.
TLDR: Stop whining and expecting other countries generocity, and start building your own stuff
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