Chinese semiconductor industry

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tphuang

tphuang

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hvpc said:
TI is not shutting down its MCU R&D operation but merely moving it out of China. Is this continuance of Chinese & western ecosystem really a good thing in the long run?

Based on TI's income statement these past few quarters, it doesn't look like they are getting hurt by domestic MCU players, yet. Their y/y revenue decline is in-line with the industry and not too different from SMIC. Their Operating Margin is still above 40%, down quite a bit from last year, but still very healthy. I'm not sure it's time to count your chickens and declare domestic competition is hurting TI.......again, the key word is: 'yet'.

has anyone studied TI's financial in detail that could shed more light on their situation?
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Give it to two years. TI will see significant declines in China. I don't think people on this forum realize just how much Chinese auto industry for example relies on TI chips at the moment or how that is going to change

And not just in MCU but also Analog space
 
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hvpc

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tonyget said:
Your info is in conflict with Techinsights. According to this article，in Nov 2022 Techinsights first discovered 232L on YMTC product，which puts YMTC ahead of Samsung, Micron, Sk hynix.

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Tech Insight has no insights, no pun intended, into what fabs are actually producing. Hynix alone has 400K wpm capacity, 10K wpm worth of 232L 3D-NAND is 2.5% of their wafers....these chips get mixed in with chips from other process nodes for use in hundreds of products. If I remember correctly, both Hynix and Micron had issued press release about production of 2xxL 3D-NAND even before YMTC did. But they didn't say what end product those chips will go towards. How do you expect TechInsight to get so lucky and randomly find those specific 232L chips in actual products?

TechInsight can only analyze and issue report on what they find.

But they are aware of everyone's raodmap. Lookup TechInsight's 3D-NAND roadmap and you will find them showing 2xxL 3D-NAND in some form of limited production already in 2H22 or 1H23.
 
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tokenanalyst

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hvpc said:
Tech Insight has no insights, no pun intended, into what fabs are actually producing. Hynix alone has 400K wpm capacity, 10K wpm worth of 232L 3D-NAND is 2.5% of their wafers....these chips get mixed in with chips from other process nodes for use in hundreds of products. If I remember correctly, both Hynix and Micron had issued press release about production of 2xxL 3D-NAND even before YMTC did. But they didn't say what end product those chips will go towards. How do you expect TechInsight to get so lucky and randomly find those specific 232L chips in actual products?

TechInsight can only analyze and issue report on what they find.

But they are aware of everyone's raodmap. Lookup TechInsight's 3D-NAND roadmap and you will find them showing 2xxL 3D-NAND in some form of limited production already in 2H22 or 1H23.
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What is the production capacity of YMTC? Do you have any source?
 
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tokenanalyst

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Anji Technology: Many of the company's products have entered the customer mass production and introduction stage in the field of advanced packaging.​


Anji Technology said in a recent investor survey that the company is committed to establishing an electrochemical plating technology platform and developing electroplating solution additives that meet the needs of integrated circuit Damascus technology and advanced packaging bump technology, covering all product categories. At present, the company's R&D products cover a variety of electroplating solutions and additive products, and many products in the advanced packaging field have entered the stage of mass production and introduction by customers.

Electroplating is a key process for integrated circuit manufacturing. It is widely used in integrated circuit manufacturing Damascus process, through silicon via process (TSV), advanced packaging bump process (bump) and redistribution line (RDL) process to achieve metal interconnection. The global market size is approximately to $942 million.

Through various methods such as self-construction and cooperation, Anji Technology continues to strengthen its supply capabilities of functional wet electronic chemical products and raw materials. Through the existing technology platform, the establishment of an electroplating technology platform based on the continuous development of its own technology has further expanded and strengthened the technical level in related fields through international cooperation and other forms.

At present, Anji Technology has become the mainstream domestic supplier of post-etching cleaning , achieving a stable supply of post-etching cleaning fluids for the hard mask copper Damascus process at 28nm and below technology nodes. Completed the extended construction of the etching solution and electroplating solution platform, which is used in advanced packaging and integrated circuit Damascus processes. It has more than 248 invention patents and 240 inventions. The patents have been accepted.

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huemens

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hvpc said:
Tech Insight has no insights, no pun intended, into what fabs are actually producing. Hynix alone has 400K wpm capacity, 10K wpm worth of 232L 3D-NAND is 2.5% of their wafers....these chips get mixed in with chips from other process nodes for use in hundreds of products. If I remember correctly, both Hynix and Micron had issued press release about production of 2xxL 3D-NAND even before YMTC did. But they didn't say what end product those chips will go towards. How do you expect TechInsight to get so lucky and randomly find those specific 232L chips in actual products?

TechInsight can only analyze and issue report on what they find.

But they are aware of everyone's raodmap. Lookup TechInsight's 3D-NAND roadmap and you will find them showing 2xxL 3D-NAND in some form of limited production already in 2H22 or 1H23.
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I don't think TechInsights just find products by luck. They are in the business of selling this kind of information and they make millions of dollars off of it. I am sure they have their sources and knows what products to buy. YMTC has real 232L products in the open market that you and I can buy. Now your saying that's some how less evidence than a press announcement from Hynix and Micron. You are also saying that Hynix and Micron's 2xxL products are invisible because they mix it with their lower-end products. Why would they do that, especially if they are making 2xxL in that high volume why would they sell it mixed-in with lower-end products, why wouldn't they market and sell it as separate and more high-end products.
 
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tonyget

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hvpc said:
Tech Insight has no insights, no pun intended, into what fabs are actually producing. Hynix alone has 400K wpm capacity, 10K wpm worth of 232L 3D-NAND is 2.5% of their wafers....these chips get mixed in with chips from other process nodes for use in hundreds of products. If I remember correctly, both Hynix and Micron had issued press release about production of 2xxL 3D-NAND even before YMTC did. But they didn't say what end product those chips will go towards. How do you expect TechInsight to get so lucky and randomly find those specific 232L chips in actual products?

TechInsight can only analyze and issue report on what they find.

But they are aware of everyone's raodmap. Lookup TechInsight's 3D-NAND roadmap and you will find them showing 2xxL 3D-NAND in some form of limited production already in 2H22 or 1H23.
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Roadmap does not equal actual delivery. Delay is very common in tech field. Just look at Intel's roadmap，the timeline of 10nm and actual delivery time of 10nm
 
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hvpc

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you know what guys.....I'm a bit tired of thankless effort to share my insights.

I think it'll make your lives and mine a lot simpler if I don't stir the pot with info I'm privy to. i'll let you guys go back to scavenging for info from the media.
 
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tokenanalyst

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Yangtze, the most successful of all China’s chip startups, is hooking up equipment in its 200k wpm Fab2 which, it hopes, will give it 10% of the world NAND market.
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Well according to electronics weekly YMTC was outputting 200K wafers per month in their fab2 facility last year, that is between their 128L and 232L products, I could assume that they could be outputting around 50K wpm of 232L NAND in just that facility.

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