Chinese semiconductor industry

tonyget said:

Nvidia will release B100 next year，it will be much more powerful than H100. Remember H800 is just H100 shrink version，and we don't even know when will Ascend 920 be released. So Huawei has a long way to go to catch up Nvidia

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Nvidia can‘t sell to China anyway.
Also, Huawei has a lot of advantages in communication area. When you are running a system with more than 20k NPUs, communication becomes more important than single card performance. And in era of LLM, companies need such HUGE training clusters.

tonyget said:

Nvidia will release B100 next year，it will be much more powerful than H100. Remember H800 is just H100 shrink version，and we don't even know when will Ascend 920 be released. So Huawei has a long way to go to catch up Nvidia

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Unlike NVIDIA, it Huawei needs to build up a domestic supply chain and wait for a domestic fab to come close to what TSMC is providing for NVIDIA. (Which Huawei itself used before the ban.

But Huawei now has the world's largest market as its base to provide time for it to catch up. Once things are in place, you'll see the repeat of EVs in semicon.

GiantPanda said:

Unlike NVIDIA, it Huawei needs to build up a domestic supply chain and wait for a domestic fab to come close to what TSMC is providing for NVIDIA. (Which Huawei itself used before the ban.

But Huawei now has the world's largest market as its base to provide time for it to catch up. Once things are in place, you'll see the repeat of EVs in semicon.

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Eventually, yes. The current strength in EVs is the result of 20 years of effort. Industries do not grow overnight, even though it's true things are moving in the right direction. In the ideal circumstance, we would see increased use for alternatives to silicon over time the same way EVs displaced ICE vehicles. That would go a long way towards removing the advantage of established players. But who knows.

tonyget said:

Nvidia will release B100 next year，it will be much more powerful than H100. Remember H800 is just H100 shrink version，and we don't even know when will Ascend 920 be released. So Huawei has a long way to go to catch up Nvidia

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Huawei AI chip is cheaper.

A better example is Supercomputers, since AI GPUs are clustered together. Nobody thinks of an LLM model trained on a single card's performance, and superclusters can be highly scalable to achieve extreme performance. Power efficiency and node size is less important, because it's not running off battery in a mobile device, rather in a large building with permanent backup power.

All the West has left is "at what cost"-ing exercise about electricity cost - there is a reason why China was home to largest bitcoin mining GPU farms that thrived in cheap electricity cost environment like China, where hydroelectric is abundant.

It's secretly revealed that China reached it's third exascale supercomputer power despite US sanctions attempts, and China has more combined supercomputer raw power than rest of world combined. AI superclusters will follow the same trajectory.

Jinghe Phase III is ready to go​

report from SEMI pointed out that between 2022 and 2024, 71 new wafer fabs will be built around the world.

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After encountering a trough period in which nearly half of the production capacity was vacant at the end of 2022, Jinghe Integrated's capacity utilization rate quickly reached more than 80% in the second quarter of this year and continues to increase

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China's automotive semiconductor market will be approximately 158.3 billion yuan, accounting for only 28.9% of the global market. The total revenue of domestic chip companies' automotive chip business will be approximately 12 billion yuan, and the local market The self-sufficiency rate is about 7.6%

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The third phase of Jinghe Integration will focus on the development of automotive-grade process platforms

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Nexchip (Hefei Jinghe Integrated 晶合集成) has a very aggressive technological roadmap: they successfully went down to 55nm this year. They plan to go 40nm next year and 28nm in 2025, by then there will be no problem to find any 28nm localized alternative would be needed in case new bans kick in.

Wrought said:

Eventually, yes. The current strength in EVs is the result of 20 years of effort. Industries do not grow overnight, even though it's true things are moving in the right direction. In the ideal circumstance, we would see increased use for alternatives to silicon over time the same way EVs displaced ICE vehicles. That would go a long way towards removing the advantage of established players. But who knows.

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China's semicon industry goes back two decades as well. Actually, China started in this space a bit before EVs. Hua Hong was founded in 1996. SMIC in 2000.

Domestic cars in China always had to compete against foreign competition until China's policies allowed EVs to march past ICE.

In semicon, the domestic players -- like in the auto industry -- had also had to compete against foreign competition. But this suddenly has changed with the US clearing away foreign competion. This and Chinese policies has already created a near complete supply chain in China that is not replicated in any other country in the world. That chain will be completed in the coming few years with lithography. This will be like in EVs where China has the advantage of a fully domestic end to end process chain.

Sales orders continue to grow, and Shengmei Shanghai’s revenue in the first three quarters reached 2.749 billion yuan​

According to Jiwei.com, on October 27, Shengmei Shanghai released its third quarter report for 2023, stating that the company achieved revenue of 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.17%; net profit during the same period was 233 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.16%.
In the first three quarters of 2023, Shengmei Shanghai achieved operating income of 2.749 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.01%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 673 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.57%.
Shengmei Shanghai said that benefiting from the increasing demand for equipment in the domestic semiconductor industry, sales orders have continued to grow; new customer expansion and new market development have achieved certain results; the company's electroplating equipment continues to be recognized by more customers, and the corresponding operating income continues increase.
The company's main business income and gross profit increased, mainly due to the substantial growth in operating income of other semiconductor equipment (electroplating, vertical furnace tubes, stress-free copper polishing and other equipment) from January to September 2023.
Secondly, the company's non-recurring gains and losses have increased significantly compared with the previous period. The company's non-recurring gains and losses from January to September 2023 were 33.1169 million yuan, mainly due to the sale of stocks to obtain investment income of 23.9549 million yuan, and the holdings in this period. Income from changes in the fair value of stocks was 5.8304 million yuan; while the amount of non-recurring gains and losses in the same period last year was -40.0668 million yuan.
Previously, Shengmei Shanghai disclosed the company’s order status. As of September 27, 2023, the company's total order amount on hand was 6.796 billion yuan (including the amount of signed contracts and winning bids that have not yet been signed), an increase of 46.33% compared with that of September 30, 2022. Among them, 6.526 billion yuan of contracts have been signed, an increase of 41.01%; the amount of contracts that have been awarded but not yet signed is 270 million yuan, an increase of 1554.55%.

tonyget said:

Nvidia will release B100 next year，it will be much more powerful than H100. Remember H800 is just H100 shrink version，and we don't even know when will Ascend 920 be released. So Huawei has a long way to go to catch up Nvidia

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You are not getting the point. Question is whether you can create big enough computing cluster for your AI needs. Ascend-910 is sufficient for that. When 920 comes out, it will be even better for the role.

It's entirely incorrect to say you need the latest process to train your models

KYli said:

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When we say don't post random takes, that's not restricted to just negative takes. We don't need 100 articles of people saying China will be fine. keep to factual and udpates. Please reduce the number of articles you post. And you do post articles, please post comment. If you are able to add comment, then don't post them

China's growing dominance in SiC substrate market going almost completely unnoticed

科友半导体 (KY semiconductor) will be supplying 8-inch SiC wafers to a customer in Italy. Says that it's Sic Wafers are up to world leading standard

Sanan's 8-inch production has started in Hunan as we've already talked about