I am saying from the perspective of ASML if they really are considering a long term future in China, they could find themselves restricted in the low-medium end by Chinese domestic players and high end by the US goverment.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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This is just not correct. The large majority of China's capacity expansion in terms of wpm, including expansion by SMIC, is in fabricating mature and legacy nodes. This is consistent with how China has historically approached competition, by leveraging its overwhelming scale advantage in the low-end to squeeze out competitors, then using the profits and process knowledge thus gained to move up a step and repeat.
From January to August this year, local equipment companies in China won 47.25% of the bids for chip manufacturing, almost half of the total.
The proportion was 36.3% in March-April and reached 62% in July-August..
More money goes into local chip making equipment companies and companies will spend more money in R&D.. win-win situation
don't forget. government has exempt Tax in semiconductor R&D till 2027..
The proportion was 36.3% in March-April and reached 62% in July-August..
More money goes into local chip making equipment companies and companies will spend more money in R&D.. win-win situation
don't forget. government has exempt Tax in semiconductor R&D till 2027..
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It's very clear that the issue here is lackadaisical investment and expansion, not any fundamental technological bottlenecks like there were until recently with EUV. Now that ASML's ArFi is a thing of the past and fabs have accepted that they have no choice but to work with SMEE's machines, we're going to see a rapid ramp up.
Too many people are jumping to conclusions. The US will try to push for maximum restrictions enforcement, but they are not all-powerful and there is a cost-benefit calculation for pressuring other countries. Which means a certain amount of flexibility in their position as already demonstrated by the Korean licenses. Where exactly the restrictions will end up is just a guess right now. And the same for domestic Chinese companies. Precision engineering takes time and SMEE cannot possibly scale up fast enough to supply immediate demand. It will be many years before ASML machines are completely replaced, that's just the reality. You can't remake an entire industry overnight.
The best thing to do is wait and see.
The best thing to do is wait and see.
the key thing you said there is "in the future", which means not now. Remember, we've talked about this many times. China just needs more time. If fabs don't have to suffer a year of delay in expansion, that's always a good thing
We already seen that Dutch & Japanese sanctions are as strict as American ones. Dutch granted 2050i export license until end of this year. Japan has also granted numerous export licenses according to that Nikkei article
absolutely not. I doubt any one in the administration is willing to acknowledge SMEE has a working Arf dry machine.
my guess is that ASML has backroom deal here with US where they don't de-americanize at all, but get to continue to sell older models to fabs that are not SMSC, HLMC, YMTC & CXMT. all along, the word was that America wants to ban all DUVi machines to a handful of advanced labs and you can guess which ones those are.
But we will see. I just don't think we know until next year how this actually works in practice.
I don't understand why people are even hyperventilating? It seems like just a couple of members who I will start deleting their posts if they start overstating things.
The people in China's tech industry think none of these sanctions will matter all that much. At most, a delay of some time period. I don't know why people on this forum can't relax. I'm pretty relaxed. I've barely tweeted about this. I haven't tweeted at all about graphite sanction.
CETC sent 4 ion implanters to xx customer in Guangdong.
No Wei!
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