This news says Canon inkjet printer can print 5nm and is a lot cheaper.
If it is cheap enough, one can buy many to print simultaneously even if it is slow.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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If it is cheap enough, one can buy many to print simultaneously even if it is slow.
I presume this just means you cannot do this for any ASML machines with US technology, so ASML has to figure out how to make machines without US technology at all.
I think everyone is still trying to figure out what this means exactly.
I think we should just all wait some time and see how this plays out
I still don't see how US laws can affect Dutch export controls. It can only limit any usage of American tech in ASML machines. Now, it may take sometime for ASML to completely de-americanize their DUVi machines (likely more than just light source that we've talked about), but that's for ASML to figure out with their local partners
With all the deliveries they took in Q2 & Q3, they better be stocked up with more supplies than that.
For example, they probably have 1 to 2 years of Nvidia GPUs in stock
Other thing to consider is just tested "threshold". If they have enough access to ASML machines, then domestic options need to be somewhat close in performance to actually make it too high volume production.
But if they have no alternatives, then domestic fabs will just have to use what SMEE has available. It will likely be tough for yield of 28nm process. Maybe you get 70% instead of 90% yield at lower wafers per month. But over time, that will improve. Forced adoptions are typically painful in the short term, but definitely speeds up adoption.
For sure SMEE has some of the blame, but Chinese fabs and industrialists also have part of the blame by putting all their eggs in the hands of a few Western monopolies and not collaborating with domestic suppliers. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment, EDA and semiconductor grade materials are not develop in vacuum, products get better in positive feedback cycle.
Huawei is another example they shunned domestic suppliers in favor of American suppliers even when all the warning signs where there that stooges in D.C. where not happy with the company position in the communication market, was only when reality hit them in the face like a truck that they decided to swallow their pride and work with domestic suppliers.
The reality is, for SMEE to succeed in China ASML has to sell less. Because if that is not case then SMEE is better by selling machines that make them money.
I do think in the other hand the there is need in China for a second domestic step and scan lithography company that compete with SMEE, like Canon and Nikon in Japan. A competitor of the size of SMEE not like ASML which is way too big of a competition.
These new U.S sanctions have come as a response to the release of Mate 60 Pro by Huawei.
It is inconceivable that Huawei released it's phone without approval from higher authorities since anyone could have predicted that the US would respond furiously and double down on sanctions. The stakes are just too high for it have acted alone without approval.
The release of Mate 60 pro does not seem to be an isolated act of defiance since the blow-back expected would not have been worth the effort.
This shows to me the following points-
1 The government is very confident that it can counter any US sanctions on supply of chip making machines or materials or know-how.
2 If the 7nm process can be used to make millions of phones, which is hardly a strategic product then there must be enough capacity to make A.I chips on the same 7nm process to cover the loss of nVidia chips from future sanctions.
3 The government must have known that the US may immediately cut off access to ASML after release of the Mate 60 pro so it must be confident that the new SMEE machines expected to arrive soon will do the job. Otherwise it would have waited till December end to squeeze everything from ASML before the sanctions announced on Sep 1 came into force.
This all suggests that the semiconductor industry in China is more advanced than many realize, even on this forum.
It is inconceivable that Huawei released it's phone without approval from higher authorities since anyone could have predicted that the US would respond furiously and double down on sanctions. The stakes are just too high for it have acted alone without approval.
The release of Mate 60 pro does not seem to be an isolated act of defiance since the blow-back expected would not have been worth the effort.
This shows to me the following points-
1 The government is very confident that it can counter any US sanctions on supply of chip making machines or materials or know-how.
2 If the 7nm process can be used to make millions of phones, which is hardly a strategic product then there must be enough capacity to make A.I chips on the same 7nm process to cover the loss of nVidia chips from future sanctions.
3 The government must have known that the US may immediately cut off access to ASML after release of the Mate 60 pro so it must be confident that the new SMEE machines expected to arrive soon will do the job. Otherwise it would have waited till December end to squeeze everything from ASML before the sanctions announced on Sep 1 came into force.
This all suggests that the semiconductor industry in China is more advanced than many realize, even on this forum.
Good point. It's all about the next election.
The ban was the kick in the ass required for China to realize that the so called rule of law is completely bogus. Without it, China will continue to rely on a few monopolies for semi manufacturing equipment, because it makes the most sense from a business/profit standpoint.
You still persist on believing ASML will make an alternative supply of tools to the ones with US components despite all proof being in the contrary. And you still don't understand that the Netherlands is part of the Wassenaar Arrangement. Which means these US laws will be codified into Dutch law sooner or later.
Yes Sir, especially it will cost his re-election Bid as China may official announce the launch of its DUVi.
I am not really sure what your point is. If the Dutch wants to stay in china market, it will stop at it's current sanctions. If it wants to give up, it can do that.
It's pretty clear Dutch themselves have protested up and down that they will not restrict further. That's why this required additional us restrictions which pertain to just us technology in asml machines.
My goal here is to understand what the restrictions are and what asml might do to keep its market share rather than predict what future restrictions there will be.
That seems to be something you want to do here. Which is entirely unrelated to my point
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