New U.S. BIS amendment on export controls on semiconductor manufacturing items tightened overlay performance criteria of scanner restriction. I have yet to go over the entire document, but it appears the new criteria (f.1.b.2.b) seemed to be quite harsh. You can read it for yourself via the link below:
Thanks for this.
I read through most of the document and I wouldn't necessarily say "equipment restriction for the most part are relaxed". There are a few instances where the revision was relaxed, but nothing too significant.
Actually I don't understand how they can impose rules on ASML, like it is a US-company. But of course US rules are always based on power-play (especially with their so called allies), more than on international law.
ASML CEO spoke about limitations but only on few big firms, this part is totally missing in the document. Limitations seem to apply to all Chinese firms....probably there is some behind-the-curtain negotiation ongoing.
LAM Research stated that new regulations do not affect their business. I'd guess that, after last year fiasco, now they don't want US firms to be kicked out completely from China market...but this horse has bolted already.
The most worrisome news is about lithography machines.
New rules state that DUVi is banned in China. This means to cripple not only advanced nodes, but also 28nm node. If US succeeds in banning ASML, this will be a "success" for US hawks....and a cold shower for everybody else.
Now it is really time from SMEE to come out with a viable commercial solution!
China semiconductor and SME community did a wonderful job: today they have all covered for 28nm and soon for more advanced nodes too, but there isn't yet a commercial litho machine. After many years of stricter and stricter export controls, now chickens came to roost: China badly needs localization of lithography machine. This is the last hurdle in the long way to self-sufficiency, but is also the hardest to conquer....and is needed now.
These new export controls will hardly be effective in the last months of 2023, so if no new DUVi machine is delivered starting from 2024, China will feel the pain maybe from Q1/Q2 2024.
One final note: SMEE had plenty of time to develop a commercial solution, indeed they had more than 10 years time! Unfortunately, due to complacency and a wrong read of the future, they wasted much of this time with money-grabbing static prototypes, and started to work for real only in the last few years...now all China semiconductor world is suffering for their shorth-sighted approach.
Please don't take it as a rant, I have nothing against SMEE and I'm sure they will succeed eventually. I just try to have an objective view of the current situation.