Chinese semiconductor industry

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tokenanalyst

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1 - I think the complexity of a SOC is much more higher than a bitcoin miner chip, everyone expected the yields of the miner to be atrocious but now that the are making chips for Huawei, SMIC is in another level.

2- There was a consensus in D.C. that after the October "surprise" SMIC 14nm and below process nodes would just collapse without US toolmakers servicing existent tools, Gina was the one who said "That they could shut down Chinese fabs", I think she was referring to servicing existing tools but some reason to much of dismay of the stooges in D.C. Chinese semiconductor companies are still making progress.
 
BoraTas

BoraTas

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tokenanalyst said:
1 - I think the complexity of a SOC is much more higher than a bitcoin miner chip, everyone expected the yields of the miner to be atrocious but now that the are making chips for Huawei, SMIC is in another level.

2- There was a consensus in D.C. that after the October "surprise" SMIC 14nm and below process nodes would just collapse without US toolmakers servicing existent tools, Gina was the one who said "That they could shut down Chinese fabs", I think she was referring to servicing existing tools but some reason to much of dismay of the stooges in D.C. Chinese semiconductor companies are still making progress.
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I keep hearing from people I know in China from my days there that problems with maintenance started in late 2021. Unusual delays in maintenance services and spare part deliveries etc... It seems China is somehow keeping machines working.

Speaking of Gina "hold their feet to fire" Raimondo, she is a poser just like most of the current US politicians. Looking tough is very important in the USA. Her getting reduced to a meme is almost divine justice.

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tphuang

tphuang

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tinrobert said:
I'm trying to understand why a new article on SMIC gets so much attention lately. I have said before on this thread that back in mid-2022 I already said SMIC was at 7nm. And I explained how SMIC was able to get there with just DUV. YOu can read it here:
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I have an answer for that. Mate 60 came out, so the media and everyone are hysterical and paying attention now.

theorlonator said:
Does anyone think SMIC can deAmericanize and expand ita 7nm line with domestic equipment and the DUVs they're getting?
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That's a good question and the answer is yes, but how long will it take?

Yet, some are convinced that Huawei without any of the tools that smic already bought.

Btw, @tokenanalyst have you seen any recent news of smee winning bids?
 
Phead128

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Opportunity for SMIC N+3 (5nm) to remain competitive even against TSMC N3B (3nm) if N3 gains are as mediocre/disappointing as reported?

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Key summary of N3:
  • Not much faster: only 10% boost in performance for A17
  • No more efficient: no claims of extended battery performance
  • Barely any more transistors: only 3 billion bump in transistor count (19b vs. 16b for A17 vs. A16)
Taken altogether, it's hard to see where the benefits of the new 3nm silicon are kicking in.
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TLDR: benefits of new 3nm is very disappointing in A17 chip compared to 5nm A16 chip.

If A17 chips powered by N3 is as disappointing as reported, then SMIC N+2 plus and N+3 can have 3 years or more to remain competitive on DUV iterations alone until A18 chips powered by TSMC N2 hits the shelf in 2026! Same for Snapdragon 8 gen 3 (4nm) and gen 4 (3nm) may still give Huawei/SMIC room to be competitive.
 
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measuredingabens

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Phead128 said:
Opportunity for SMIC N+3 (5nm) to remain competitive even against TSMC N3B (3nm) if N3 gains are as mediocre/disappointing as reported?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Key summary of N3:
  • Not much faster: only 10% boost in performance for A17
  • No more efficient: no claims of extended battery performance
  • Barely any more transistors: only 3 billion bump in transistor count (19b vs. 16b for A17 vs. A16)


TLDR: benefits of new 3nm is very disappointing in A17 chip compared to 5nm A16 chip.

If A17 chips powered by N3 is as disappointing as reported, then SMIC N+2 plus and N+3 can have 3 years or more to remain competitive on DUV iterations alone until A18 chips powered by TSMC N2 hits the shelf in 2026! Same for Snapdragon 8 gen 3 (4nm) and gen 4 (3nm) may still give Huawei/SMIC room to be competitive.
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I wonder if this is a factor in Samsung choosing to go for GAAFET in their own 3 nm process rather than doing so for 2 nm. 3 nm FINFET doesn't currently seem to have much of a benefit vs its cost. There seems to be a question if each new node after 2 nm requires another large shift in process (new materials, transistor design, machines etc.) to have a performance increase worth the cost of getting there.
 
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