who said this piece?
If each wafer contains 450 good SoC for TSMC wafer of Snapdragon, then I may have to revise my total of total chips per wafer down (i did calculation based on 550 chips/wafer when it's possible this may only be 500 to 525, not sure TSMC yield here), which would further lead to lower # of good chip per SMIC wafer
Which again is the reason I am skeptical of the sub 50% yield number we have seen. Again, I am sure it was at that level for a long time, buy the sudden change in huawei, especially with the brazen dig at raimondo tells me that they have seen an improvement recently in kirin production. Otherwise, how do you tell supply chain to prepare for 15 to 20m mate 60 phones and then tell stores to not worry about supply? And that's just tip of the iceberg. So many new phones out that will need Kirin chips.
And now they get a full ban, they must have done some calculations and think that smic + whatever they stocked up is sufficient to last until whenever smic can ramp up production. My guess sometimes over next year.
My calculations was that even 20k wpm of 7nm isn't enough for Huawei itself let alone all the other OEMs in china.
And that number needs to continue to increase, because they will have to keep going advanced packaging and larger combined die size to deal with the gap in process node.
So one would think that either Huawei just went crazy here or they are seeing a way through. Which means more finfet capacity+ higher yield expected going forward.
If it is not sustainable, Huawei would not have done it. They usually keep a very low profile to avoid being targeted. Just compare how easily they got ZTE versus how many hoops they had to jump through to ban Huawei.
All evidence points to the fact that Huawei and SMIC have a definitive workaround of the ban and have factored in the worst case scenario of US lawmakers going full retard and using the nuclear option. Otherwise they could easily have waited a year or two because contrary to popular belief, smartphone sale is not the core of Huawei’s business.