Chinese semiconductor industry

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paiemon

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I don't think many people (not this forum though!) really understood what it meant when we say Huawei was going to drag the entire domestic industry along with them.

It wasn't like the people working on this popped out of thin air after the US sanctions. The expertise and talent was always there, but it sure was convenient to point to the domestic industry's past performance and pretend they are a non-factor when they dreamed up these tech sanctions.
Well Huawei was/still is the most vertically integrated of all the chinese electronic companies. So even though they didn't manufacture/control most of the components that they integrated, they still had great insights into the components as a integrator due to setting specs, managing integration, etc. Since Huawei was at the leading edge for its finished products having worked with many multinational industry leaders, that expertise translated over when they had to switch over to working with domestic supply chain in terms of designing and manufacturing, it wasn't entirely from scratch. Alot of these companies were probably closer to mid or lagging range in their fields, but being forced to work with Huawei and meet their requirements forces you to step up your game, similar to how being an Apple or Tesla supplier is like a certification itself. The US definitely picked the "wrong elf fool" as a target.

A spokeswoman for the company said ASML will be able to continue to ship the products in its NXT:2000i and more advanced DUV models, which fell under the restrictions as of Sept. 1, for the remainder of 2023.

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Seems like the Dutch export controls are more for show at the US that they did something. They probably won't give any clear waivers with a far out target date post 2023 since that would enrage US politicians but since we expect this to hold true for the foreseable future as they have more to lose as the years progress, this is actually the best outcome possible since DUVi will be a workhorse for years to come. China continues to import all the DUVi it needs, it ramps up its domestic program in parallel without any disruption to industry and continues to benefit from exposure to ASML and its domestic program running side-by-side. Now the question is will the US apply FDPR to the DUVi components ASML sources and if so, does ASML have a program in place to sidestep it? I would think yes, because otherwise the Dutch license would be useless if the system couldn't work without those potentially FDPR'ed components/subsystems.
 

tphuang

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Well ASML continues to see no impact from the new restrictions. My sense is that the impact will come from internal Chinese competition

On the other hand, now that the Japanese needlessly restricted themselves from more sales, ASML get to eat more of Nikon/Canon's lunch.

Also, I think the Europeans will get their gallium and germanium. Japan can kiss it goodbye
 

ansy1968

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Well Huawei was/still is the most vertically integrated of all the chinese electronic companies. So even though they didn't manufacture/control most of the components that they integrated, they still had great insights into the components as a integrator due to setting specs, managing integration, etc. Since Huawei was at the leading edge for its finished products having worked with many multinational industry leaders, that expertise translated over when they had to switch over to working with domestic supply chain in terms of designing and manufacturing, it wasn't entirely from scratch. Alot of these companies were probably closer to mid or lagging range in their fields, but being forced to work with Huawei and meet their requirements forces you to step up your game, similar to how being an Apple or Tesla supplier is like a certification itself. The US definitely picked the "wrong elf fool" as a target.


Seems like the Dutch export controls are more for show at the US that they did something. They probably won't give any clear waivers with a far out target date post 2023 since that would enrage US politicians but since we expect this to hold true for the foreseable future as they have more to lose as the years progress, this is actually the best outcome possible since DUVi will be a workhorse for years to come. China continues to import all the DUVi it needs, it ramps up its domestic program in parallel without any disruption to industry and continues to benefit from exposure to ASML and its domestic program running side-by-side. Now the question is will the US apply FDPR to the DUVi components ASML sources and if so, does ASML have a program in place to sidestep it? I would think yes, because otherwise the Dutch license would be useless if the system couldn't work without those potentially FDPR'ed components/subsystems.
Correct BUT the Japanese will say otherwise just ask Nikon and see how they are doing...lol Their press statement said it all. ;)

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Jul 23, 2023 — Under the new regulations, Japan's list of restricted items now includes equipment for cleaning, checkups and lithography, a technology used ...
 

tonyget

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Does China have domestic producers of DUV photoresists?
 

BlackWindMnt

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Well ASML continues to see no impact from the new restrictions. My sense is that the impact will come from internal Chinese competition

On the other hand, now that the Japanese needlessly restricted themselves from more sales, ASML get to eat more of Nikon/Canon's lunch.

Also, I think the Europeans will get their gallium and germanium. Japan can kiss it goodbye
Yeah sounds like we Dutch if we can earn a penny we will do a lot of things to find a loophole to get that penny. ASML getting export license from our previous or temporary government for 2023 :p

Who will the US blame there's no real Dutch government they can blame until the dutch election in November.
 

Franklin

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Yeah sounds like we Dutch if we can earn a penny we will do a lot of things to find a loophole to get that penny. ASML getting export license from our previous or temporary government for 2023 :p

Who will the US blame there's no real Dutch government they can blame until the dutch election in November.
That is what I was thinking as there is going to be "regime change" in the Netherlands as prime minister Mark Rutte has said that he won’t seek re-election so he doesn’t have to deal with any of the diplomatic fallout with America over this.
 

european_guy

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Yeah sounds like we Dutch if we can earn a penny we will do a lot of things to find a loophole to get that penny. ASML getting export license from our previous or temporary government for 2023 :p

Who will the US blame there's no real Dutch government they can blame until the dutch election in November.

You bad boys! You shouldn't make big daddy angry this way! :D:D
 

BlackWindMnt

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That is what I was thinking as there is going to be "regime change" in the Netherlands as prime minister Mark Rutte has said that he won’t seek re-election so he doesn’t have to deal with any of the diplomatic fallout with America over this.
Ooh i think diplomatic fallout with the US over this is at the bottom of his list.

The Dutch Economy entered a recession, the Rutte's government Ukraine adventure is also failing and i think that is why he is leaving dutch politics. I also expect a lot of chair will change in Brussels in 2024, so i think he has his eyes on one of those chairs. So he can let other people fix the mess he leaves behind and return to dutch politics again in like 8~10 years.
 

MortyandRick

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pretty detailed hypothesis on the manufacturing of the 9000s chip. I couldn’t understand everything he said so was hoping someone here can clarify the end conclusion of his analysis? I wasn’t due if he thought this chip was one of the stock piles from before tsmc was banned and the CN referred to the end packaging was in china or was it most likely made by SMIC?
 
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