Chinese semiconductor industry

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tphuang

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Another hit piece by HW before HR. I don't think there has been a study on how much gallium each F-35 uses. But it is interesting his point about how much money it cost for china to setup an industry that can extract Gallium and how much time it takes to recycle Ga and how it's much harder to refine recycled gallium.

有网友说美国人每架F35要用几十公斤氮化镓、每艘宙斯盾驱逐舰要用几百公斤。不知道是不是这么高,要是这样,美军要从砷化锗射频器件升级到氮化镓那是比较困难的,因为他们没有镓的库存;而按美国战机和军舰的产量,一年消耗的氮化镓估计要几顿到十吨级。而当前美国人自己不生产,又没有库存,不着急才奇怪。

而上次我已经分析了,镓和锗主要是炼铝和锌的副产物,美国人根本就补贴不起这些金属矿物材料生产,因为这是几千亿元人民币投资,还有几万亿后端产业链互动才能解决的问题,短期内解决难度不低于中国搞光刻机,甚至更难。
不过好搞笑的是,美国将中国对原材料的管控责任归结到“荷兰禁令”上,说因为中国看到ASML光刻机被禁止才反击的,欧盟对这个理由很无语,对美国这种“盟友”也非常失望;因为荷兰不出口光刻机那是美国人强压的。

如果美国的空军和海军的氮化镓有源相控阵雷达升级受阻,那意味着被中国在雷达拉开的距离在加大。两军相遇,看不见中方飞机,而中方可以先发现美军飞机,这意味着什么,美国人一清二楚。所以美国才急急忙忙收破烂。
但是废品收了要提炼也是非常费劲的,这种生产线以前美国就没有,等建设完成可以收估计要2年后了。卡死这个不仅仅军工,美国一些民用射频器件和功率器件也会大为受挫,就看他们绕过的水平了。

当然,美国人在赌中国因为整机产业链需要买美国氮化镓和锗化合物芯片,如果没有美国芯片,中国整机也会影响。因此美国一个公司总裁说不用担心,中国半年就会放开。我倒要看看美国人信心如何了,因为中国镓华和锗这类半导体器件自产率是比较高的。

我国首次用类似镓和锗限制出口这种措施,很多手段都需要在战争中学习战争,这次反击战中锻炼我们的能力。但是这一炮让欧美开始感觉痛、镓和锗国际价格大幅上涨,这对我们是一个短期的胜利,相信我们一定会有持续的胜利,因为美国锗和镓产能三年内起不来的。

The other point I want to make is that as Ga gets scarce, it's entirely possible that export of Ga RF products to China will not be allowed. At which point, China will need to be able to support its own industries the buy higher valued Ga products from America like power amplifiers.
 

tphuang

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so I think the important thing here is to see just how hard China will enforce export restrictions? Do they block all exports? Do they allow some exports to Germany with guarantee that it won't get redirected to us military? I would imagine some will get through regardless. Hard to imagine they can impose it so tightly that us military won't get their share.

Which brings us to the more likely scenario of RF companies like QCOM,AVGO, QRVO, Murata & skyworks don't get enough Ga and need to sell less or sub out Ga amplifiers with silicon ones, which will perform significant worse.

The implications of Huawei having their own 5G phone is that China's 5G RF supply chain is fully established. Now unfortunately, having a full supply chain does not mean it can supply all the end users. After all, there are 600 million phones from Chinese phone makers. All of them rely on Ga for power amplifiers & low noise amplifiers. So how much can they supply and how quickly can it be ramped up. Even SAW & BAW filters are unlikely sufficient to supply more than 20 million phones a year.

two months ago, it was reported that both Vanchip & OnMicro have developed 5G L-PAMiD
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Which is basically what all 5G phones need as well as the 5G modem chip to handle and process incoming & outgoing signals

OnMicro specifically have both Huawei & Xiaomi investment
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While it's unclear if Huawei actually has onboarded OnMicro as a PAMID supplier for its 5G phones. It certainly does match this timeline of mass production getting delivered in 2023
同时新产品也不断获得行业头部客户的认可,例如全集成5G PAMiD产品已送往客户验证,预计2023年上半年将量产出货。
Looks like it has entered supply chain of many phone companies
得益于强大的产品研发及配套服务能力,昂瑞微的产品拓展已进入全线突破阶段。除荣耀、小米、三星、摩托罗拉、中兴、联想、传音、华勤、龙旗、闻泰等已进入的知名品牌和方案商外,近一年来,包括OPPO、vivo等在内的新品牌客户均启用公司的射频前端系列产品。
so its product is supplying honor, xiaomi, samsung, motorola, ZTE, Lenovo, oppo & vivo

more from 2021 on work Huawei tried to do to achieve 5G independence
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去年华为Mate30拆解结果显示,
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已经实现处理器、基带、天线开关等的自研,但射频前端模块仍来自日本村田制作所;P40的拆解结果同样显示,已经在很大程度上摆脱了对美国公司的依赖,并开始PA的研发,但射频前端组件仍然主要来自高通、Qorvo和Skyworks等厂商。

为了应对美国的出口限制,2019年9月之后,集微咨询梳理发现华为在射频前端上做了几件事:加大射频器件库存备货力度;通过旗下的海思加快相关器件研发,提升内部的射频前端技术能力,同时通过华为哈勃投资国内优秀的射频公司;加大与村田这家主要的非美系射频前端组件供应商的合作力度;与卓胜微等中国本土供应商合作,使其在华为禁令后相关业务翻了一番。

即使美国将来放宽对华为的限制,也将对射频前端市场产生持久的影响。目前这些限制已经对华为的智能手机业务造成重大冲击,被迫剥离荣耀品牌。随着其他智能手机品牌填补华为的市场空白,射频前端市场格局或将发生变化。
tough times

Keep an eye on this. what will happen going forward is hard to say. But if China does full ban or even if export is down b 70%, it will cause havoc in the international market for many RF products, which Chinese producers may or may not be able to take advantage of
 

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another link here on China's BAW/SAW/RF industry

麦捷科技与中电26所生产的SAW滤波器已进入华为、TCL等手机供应链。麦捷科技BAW项目目前处于EC阶段,小批量出货预计将在2023年实现。
SZ Microgate Technology & CETC 26th institute produces SAW filter for HW & TCL phones.

at start of this year microgate says they will start low rate production of BAW this year
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麦捷科技车载业务的目标客户主要是比亚迪、安波福、汇川、麦格米特、英博尔等企业。本部的电感、金之川的变压器等都已形成供应,应用场景覆盖自动驾驶控制域、底盘域、座舱域等。现有车载产品的多数功能板块公司都可以参与进去,DC/DC只是其中之一。由于车规级产品认证周期都比较长,公司未来将继续加强资源投入,争取尽快做大汽车电子业务占比。
looks like they are also a BYD supplier for smart cockpit, wheelbase control & ADAS control and such

from another link
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(300319.SZ)7月26日在投资者互动平台表示,公司一贯秉承正向设计原则,在产品与技术的知识产权方面均为自主所有;PaMID作为高度集成的射频前端模组,是公司未来重点投入的产品方向之一,目前公司正在做积极的布局
they are also looking to get into PaMID. Each 5G phone requires at least 2 PaMID. It's one of the largest source of revenue for RFFE companies

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(300319.SZ)7月20日在投资者互动平台表示,公司TF-SAW预计于今年下半年至2024年上半年实现导入量产,目前该产品尚未实现销售,具体产能不便评估

7月18日在投资者互动平台表示,射频业务是公司核心战略产业之一,现阶段公司将主要围绕SAW产品进行相应地投入开发,其他产品情况请详见公司公告
They anticipate to start mass production of TF-SAW filter later this year or first half of next year

Their main product development is in SAW filters
It does seem to me there are abundant of suppliers in Chinese market. Whoever gets there first will get the domestic phone maker orders and propser. Maybe over next 2 years, we will see a fully blossomed Chinese industry here that can challenge US & Japan
 
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