Chinese semiconductor industry

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sunnymaxi

Major
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SMIC's 5nm development likely have been slowed down for 2 year
7nm is the focus, but production likely can't increase until 2025
12/14nm will get de-americanized, but production likely can't increase until early 2024

focus forced to shift from Finfet to more R&D on completing 28/40nm processes. That's important, people

DRAM progress slowed down because CXMT is bad

YMTC got hurt the most. 232 layers production either flat or going down for a couple of years
convert 64 layers to 128 layers and they can ramp up 128 layers as much as possible
Again, late this year or 2024 effort
Hasn't hurt them too much in sales since overall market is down
conclusion of this post -

Chinese chipmaking only get relief after 2024-25. when domestic suppliers atleast able to supply good chunk of tools include lithography machines. not bad considering China started only in 2018 after sanctions/tech war.

3 to 5 years are nothing in this highly advanced industry.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Dutch gov't has not banned sales of 1980i and below. It's just that they cannot contain American components. As such, ASML needs to de-americanize.
I told you that Nikon litho tools use Gigaphoton light sources, basically no US components, and their sale is still going to be banned. And yet you still continue to believe this is just about US content in the tools. We are way past that point.
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"Effective July, Japan will impose export controls on six categories of equipment used in chip manufacturing, including cleaning, deposition, lithography and etching."

Nikon, Canon, and TEL use all Japanese components, and they are still going to be banned.

Also, contrary to what ASML said initially, there is plenty of evidence that sales of the 1980i tool will also be restricted.
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"The new U.S. plan, which may come in late July, could deny licences for more kinds of ASML machines to ship to certain Chinese chip facilities, including one owned by China’s largest chipmaker SMIC (0981.HK), on the basis that they include U.S.-made components. That gives Biden reach over not only Dutch firms but also suppliers like Germany’s Trumpf and Zeiss, which make lasers and lenses respectively."

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"DigiTimes reported that ASML is mulling the release of a special version of its deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) tool that will comply with the latest U.S. export rules and that could be shipped to Chinese customers without a license. The device would enable companies like SMIC and Hua Hong to make chips on 28nm-class nodes and thicker, but it will not allow them to use more advanced nodes. However, the company has since denied this report.
...
"ASML complies with all applicable laws and regulations, and that it is not designing a system specifically for China and will not respond further to rumors and speculations," ASML said in a statement.
...
The lithography tool in question is the Twinscan NXT:1980Di, and currently this is the least advanced immersion scanner that ASML still makes. The machine has 1.35 numerical aperture optics and is capable of <38 nm resolution, which is enough for 7nm-class and even more advanced nodes. In fact, this scanner — originally released in 2016 — it was used by TSMC to develop its 7nm-class process technology.

Cutting down this device and increasing its minimum supported resolution to prevent SMIC and other Chinese chipmakers from creating sub-28nm process technology is theoretically possible. Keeping in mind that the lion's share of SMIC's revenue comes from production nodes that are thicker than 28nm, it is likely that Chinese companies would still be interested in procuring such tools."

All the news point to there going to be an impeding ban on all immersion lithography. Period. Basically all litho tools 45nm and over.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Nikon also said they expect the ban to cover two of their lithography tools. I assume this would be the NSR-S635E and NSR-S625E i.e. the immersion lithography machines. Well, we will see soon enough. Japanese government directive is supposed to be enacted this month.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
There was a flurry of meetings between the Japanese government and other Western countries corporations and government institutions this year. This is one of them for example.
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"On May 18, 2023, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) held a meeting at the Prime Minister's Office in order to discuss approaches that are necessary to attract human and financial resources from overseas, and stimulate investment in Japan in the fields of semiconductors and next-generation computing, which are indispensable for establishing green transformation (GX), digital transformation (DX), and economic security. Mr. Kishida Fumio, Prime Minister, and Mr. Nishimura Yasutoshi, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, exchanged views with senior executives of global companies in these fields.

This meeting brought together the following senior executives.
  • Dr. Mark Liu, Executive Chairman, TSMC
  • Mr. Pat Gelsinger, Chief Executive Officer, Intel Corporation
  • Mr. Sanjay Mehrotra, Chief Executive Officer, Micron Technology, Inc.
  • Dr. Kye Hyun Kyung, Chief Executive Officer, Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
  • Dr. Prabu G Raja, President, Semiconductor Products Group, Applied Materials, Inc.
  • Dr. Darío Gil, Senior Vice President and Director of IBM Research, IBM
  • Mr. Max (Masoud) Mirgoli, Executive Vice President, IMEC"
Notice who was at the meeting.

Japan wanted Intel and IBM to help with 2nm process development at Rapidus, IMEC is also supposed to cooperate.
TSMC is supposed to build a factory in Japan with Sony, either 28nm, or FinFET.
Several years ago Japan also wanted Samsung to build a factory in Japan. That was before the Japanese blocked sales of materials to South Korea. But yet they invited someone from Samsung again. Samsung is going to build a chip packaging plant in Japan.
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Micron bought Elpida.

Now the question is what was Applied Materials doing at the meeting...
 
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henrik

Senior Member
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Nikon also said they expect the ban to cover two of their lithography tools. I assume this would be the NSR-S635E and NSR-S625E i.e. the immersion lithography machines. Well, we will see soon enough. Japanese government directive is supposed to be enacted this month.
Expect full ban of nikon and canon products by China. Also, ban of rare earths to Japan.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
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I told you that Nikon litho tools use Gigaphoton light sources, basically no US components, and their sale is still going to be banned. And yet you still continue to believe this is just about US content in the tools. We are way past that point.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"Effective July, Japan will impose export controls on six categories of equipment used in chip manufacturing, including cleaning, deposition, lithography and etching."

Nikon, Canon, and TEL use all Japanese components, and they are still going to be banned.

Also, contrary to what ASML said initially, there is plenty of evidence that sales of the 1980i tool will also be restricted.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"The new U.S. plan, which may come in late July, could deny licences for more kinds of ASML machines to ship to certain Chinese chip facilities, including one owned by China’s largest chipmaker SMIC (0981.HK), on the basis that they include U.S.-made components. That gives Biden reach over not only Dutch firms but also suppliers like Germany’s Trumpf and Zeiss, which make lasers and lenses respectively."

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
"DigiTimes reported that ASML is mulling the release of a special version of its deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) tool that will comply with the latest U.S. export rules and that could be shipped to Chinese customers without a license. The device would enable companies like SMIC and Hua Hong to make chips on 28nm-class nodes and thicker, but it will not allow them to use more advanced nodes. However, the company has since denied this report.
...
"ASML complies with all applicable laws and regulations, and that it is not designing a system specifically for China and will not respond further to rumors and speculations," ASML said in a statement.
...
The lithography tool in question is the Twinscan NXT:1980Di, and currently this is the least advanced immersion scanner that ASML still makes. The machine has 1.35 numerical aperture optics and is capable of <38 nm resolution, which is enough for 7nm-class and even more advanced nodes. In fact, this scanner — originally released in 2016 — it was used by TSMC to develop its 7nm-class process technology.

Cutting down this device and increasing its minimum supported resolution to prevent SMIC and other Chinese chipmakers from creating sub-28nm process technology is theoretically possible. Keeping in mind that the lion's share of SMIC's revenue comes from production nodes that are thicker than 28nm, it is likely that Chinese companies would still be interested in procuring such tools."

All the news point to there going to be an impeding ban on all immersion lithography. Period. Basically all litho tools 45nm and over.

I wouldn't really quote Tom's hardware since they are just amateurs like us.

The restriction on 1980i is that you cannot use US components. This has been clear for several weeks now. If German suppliers have US components, then they just need to de-americanize also. At the end of the days, companies will always try to make sales when possible. As long as there is a small opening, they will go for it.

What's important is what ASML says. And they do not think the new restrictions will change their revenue in China region.

What the Japanese decide to ban is not relevant to what ASML can offer.

Until we have more to contradict that from ASML, it's pointless to get all alarmist and stuff
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
Expect full ban of nikon and canon products by China. Also, ban of rare earths to Japan.
already massive drop in Japanese semiconductor related tools/materials to Chinese market in this quarter.

if i m not wrong 32.6 percent drop yoy.

Japanese companies heavily relying on Chinese market. now imagine if China completely shut the market. nevertheless Japan digging its own grave.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I wouldn't really quote Tom's hardware since they are just amateurs like us.
Tom's Hardware is quoting DIGITIMES. Which is an electronics trade publication in Taiwan. They are not concocting things out of thin air.

The restriction on 1980i is that you cannot use US components. This has been clear for several weeks now. If German suppliers have US components, then they just need to de-americanize also. At the end of the days, companies will always try to make sales when possible. As long as there is a small opening, they will go for it.
We will see. I think it is pretty evident that if there is an intention by the government in the Netherlands to ban immersion lithography sales to China then ASML won't be going against the government directive. That would open them up to government retaliation.

What's important is what ASML says. And they do not think the new restrictions will change their revenue in China region.
Their stock already dropped on the news. It is pretty clear what the market thinks regardless of what they said.

What the Japanese decide to ban is not relevant to what ASML can offer.
You will see. The US managed to push Japan to ban tools exports. And Japan has a self-sufficient tools chain.
ASML is deeply intertwined with facilities in the US. Not just Cymer.

Until we have more to contradict that from ASML, it's pointless to get all alarmist and stuff
I think the response by ASML to DIGITIMES is self-evident. But we will see.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Nikon also said they expect the ban to cover two of their lithography tools. I assume this would be the NSR-S635E and NSR-S625E i.e. the immersion lithography machines. Well, we will see soon enough. Japanese government directive is supposed to be enacted this month.
Export controlled doesn't means ban, it means that is going to be reviewed before allowed to be exported.

I do agree that ASML is basically now useless in China, the benefit of liberal trade is to get the best from the world even if harm domestics companies. Now ASML only exist to steal sales from future SMEE tools, they are quickly becoming an obstacle to China domestic industry, I think the best course for China could be as soon SMEE start selling their alternatives systems ASML should be banned from selling similar systems.

I would add Nikon to the list but that company is already death. RIP Nikon.

Also as I said before Chine need to do wartime effort to develop a lithography and patterning ecosystem. EUV(SSMB, LPP, DPP, FEL, whatever works),photoresist, coating, curing, immersion DUV, dry DUV, optics, nano-positioning, nano-alignment, parts, vibration isolation, NIL, maskless, self-assembly and so on. They shouldn't let this to just the free market they, it doesn't matter if benefit private companies if at the end of the day ends benefiting the entire country.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
There was a flurry of meetings between the Japanese government and other Western countries corporations and government institutions this year. This is one of them for example.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
"On May 18, 2023, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) held a meeting at the Prime Minister's Office in order to discuss approaches that are necessary to attract human and financial resources from overseas, and stimulate investment in Japan in the fields of semiconductors and next-generation computing, which are indispensable for establishing green transformation (GX), digital transformation (DX), and economic security. Mr. Kishida Fumio, Prime Minister, and Mr. Nishimura Yasutoshi, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, exchanged views with senior executives of global companies in these fields.

This meeting brought together the following senior executives.
  • Dr. Mark Liu, Executive Chairman, TSMC
  • Mr. Pat Gelsinger, Chief Executive Officer, Intel Corporation
  • Mr. Sanjay Mehrotra, Chief Executive Officer, Micron Technology, Inc.
  • Dr. Kye Hyun Kyung, Chief Executive Officer, Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
  • Dr. Prabu G Raja, President, Semiconductor Products Group, Applied Materials, Inc.
  • Dr. Darío Gil, Senior Vice President and Director of IBM Research, IBM
  • Mr. Max (Masoud) Mirgoli, Executive Vice President, IMEC"
Notice who was at the meeting.

Japan wanted Intel and IBM to help with 2nm process development at Rapidus, IMEC is also supposed to cooperate.
TSMC is supposed to build a factory in Japan with Sony, either 28nm, or FinFET.
Several years ago Japan also wanted Samsung to build a factory in Japan. That was before the Japanese blocked sales of materials to South Korea. But yet they invited someone from Samsung again. Samsung is going to build a chip packaging plant in Japan.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Micron bought Elpida.

Now the question is what was Applied Materials doing at the meeting...
Forget about that experiment, TSMC and Samsung are just too competitive. They are no going to convince TSMC clients. Before the trade war everyone was using the same tools and even then TSMC was eating the entire competition. Things are not going to change just because the Japanese want to.
 
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