I think it's important to remember what we already discussed to not hyperventilate.
The part about America banning any machines with its parts on DUVi has been discussed several pages and we were trying to figure out what other than Cymer lasers need to be replaced. ASML itself doesn't see its sales to China affected by this, which I think means it see continued sales of de-americanized scanners as the most likely scenario.
As for not servicing 7nm scanners, that will be annoying, but they somehow have been able to continue to run the AMAT/Lam tools without any support. Maintaining it for another a few more years seem possible.
The most important part is that they've been able to fast track 2050i/2100i deliveries so that they get all they need for a few years. Other than servicing, I don't see too much effect here. At this point, I think they have enough 2050i around. Let's just put it that way.
Ga and Ge. Let's see how they implement this. I think they should ban all exports to US, Japan & Netherlands. Sorry
@BoraTas, but Nexperia likely to be affected given the no servicing clause that Dutch gov't implemented
None of this to say the sanctions haven't affected China's advanced chipmaking.
SMIC's 5nm development likely have been slowed down for 2 year
7nm is the focus, but production likely can't increase until 2025
12/14nm will get de-americanized, but production likely can't increase until early 2024
focus forced to shift from Finfet to more R&D on completing 28/40nm processes. That's important, people
DRAM progress slowed down because CXMT is bad
YMTC got hurt the most. 232 layers production either flat or going down for a couple of years
convert 64 layers to 128 layers and they can ramp up 128 layers as much as possible
Again, late this year or 2024 effort
Hasn't hurt them too much in sales since overall market is down
