Chinese semiconductor industry

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tokenanalyst

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What I am saying and this is what ASML CEO Sr. Peter Wennink is trying to warn people is that once Chinese semiconductor equipment, materials and software companies capacity increase and become dominant players in the Chinese semiconductor industry, the barriers of entry for foreign companies are going to become a lot higher, the Chinese goverment will want to protect their nascent companies, in the near future could be probably that these semi companies will have to beg their respective goverment to allow them sell the stuff that the Chinese companies hasn't mastered yet. Basically a sell your best or nothing scenario.

And those barriers could be even higher when goverment subsidies are involved.
 

Phead128

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I predict Japan may institute requiring licenses for wide range of semi exports but then follow the US lead of approving all the license applications. US approves 94% of licenses to export to China.

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Because if even US approves nearly all tech export to China that requires licenses, Japan will have their own Potemkin village of export controls and then follow in same footsteps. The implementation is the key, and so far it's not even fully enforced by US.
 

tokenanalyst

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Jingsheng Electromechanical: The company's silicon carbide epitaxial equipment shipments are in the forefront of the country.​


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Jiweiwang News On May 22, Jingsheng Electromechanical disclosed the latest research summary, saying that the company's semiconductor equipment business is divided into three areas: first, large silicon wafers, that is, 8-12 inch large silicon wafers; second, characteristic processes, That is, power semiconductor equipment; third, advanced manufacturing process, that is, wafer-side related equipment.

At present, the company's 8-12 inch large silicon wafer equipment (grown crystal, slicing, polishing and CVD equipment, etc.) has basically been localized and delivered in batches; epitaxy equipment for power semiconductor equipment and high-temperature furnace tubes and other equipment have also been delivered in batches. Especially silicon carbide epitaxy equipment, the shipment volume has reached the forefront in China; in the field of advanced manufacturing process, the company is laying out 12-inch thinning and epitaxy (atmospheric pressure epitaxy, decompression epitaxy), LPCVD and other equipment. In addition, there are research and development and layout related to semiconductor materials, parts, auxiliary materials and consumables.

Regarding the difficulty of silicon carbide substrates, Jingsheng Electromechanical said, "On the material side, equipment and technology are inseparable. The method of technology and the know how of technology must be solidified in the equipment, and the growth of materials can be realized through equipment. We In the field of silicon carbide, we develop our own equipment and make our own substrate materials. But in the link after the substrate, we still focus on equipment and sell equipment products to market customers.”

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gelgoog

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I predict Japan may institute requiring licenses for wide range of semi exports but then follow the US lead of approving all the license applications. US approves 94% of licenses to export to China.
The Japanese government is not the US one. If the Japanese government institutes a licensing scheme where they have to vet each purchase it is highly unlikely they will ever grant any licenses.

What I am saying and this is what ASML CEO Sr. Peter Wennink is trying to warn people is that once Chinese semiconductor equipment, materials and software companies capacity increase and become dominant players in the Chinese semiconductor industry, the barriers of entry for foreign companies are going to become a lot higher, the Chinese goverment will want to protect their nascent companies, in the near future could be probably that these semi companies will have to beg their respective goverment to allow them sell the stuff that the Chinese companies hasn't mastered yet. Basically a sell your best or nothing scenario.

And those barriers could be even higher when goverment subsidies are involved.​
The largest Chinese semiconductor fabs all have significant Chinese government state capital in them. Be it capital from state owned companies or investment funds from local governments. All it takes is a directive from the central government not to buy this or that product and its sales will tank. The directive does not even need to be made public. Pretty much like what happened to Boeing aircraft.
 
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test1979

Junior Member
Registered Member
As long as it can be used, all domestic products are used. This is the information I got when chatting with a friend who works in the government's digital security department today.
He said
Even with these hardware and software systems, it takes 2 minutes to execute a single instruction, while the imported system only takes 0.1 seconds. As long as the domestic system can really be used, then buy the domestic one. With user feedback, the system can be gradually improved. We have enough funds and are willing to spend time waiting. This is the attitude of the country.
 

Phead128

Captain
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Moderator - World Affairs
The Japanese government is not the US one. If the Japanese government institutes a licensing scheme where they have to vet each purchase it is highly unlikely they will ever grant any licenses.
US commerce dept vets every single purchase that requires a license and grants 94% of export licenses. So I doubt Japan will approve 0% because that would cede all market share to Netherlands which will leverage all the loopholes and tricks to stay inside China market, just like US companies are doing. All Japan has to do is review it, and if it has no military end-user or Xinjiang slave labor, then it'll likely gets approved just like in US.
 

tokenanalyst

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The Japanese government is not the US one. If the Japanese government institutes a licensing scheme where they have to vet each purchase it is highly unlikely they will ever grant any licenses.


The largest Chinese semiconductor fabs all have significant Chinese government state capital in them. Be it capital from state owned companies or investment funds from local governments. All it takes is a directive from the central government not to buy this or that product and its sales will tank. The direct does not even need to be made public. Pretty much like what happened to Boeing aircraft.
This is the press Q&A from their commerce ministry.

Semiconductor manufacturing equipment export control

Q: I would like to ask about export regulations. The United States has strengthened export controls by naming China, but is this something that China is in mind?

A: Regarding the measures taken this time, I have been exchanging opinions with allies and comrades, including the United States and the Netherlands. is to be introduced.
I think each country has its own judgment on the content. It is not intended to be in line with or follow the US measures taken in October last year, but the content of the measures is different. Japan's recent measures are to add exports to all regions to the list of control targets, and do not focus on specific countries. Since we will strengthen confirmation of whether there is any concern about military use, we will implement strict export controls.

Q: I am also concerned with the export control of semiconductor manufacturing. Individual permits will also be required in the future if the ministerial decree comes into effect. Although it is for China, individual permission is also required. China is currently proceeding with the development of semiconductors in its own country, but what kind of points will be focused on for China when this individual license is granted in the future?
Also, about 30% of Japan's exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment come from China.

A: First of all, most of the 160 or so countries and regions around the world are not subject to blanket licenses for the items to be implemented this time, so China, as you pointed out, is included in this 160 countries and regions. Although it is included, it does not have a specific country in mind, so we will look at whether there is a risk of military diversion. Since it is limited to extremely advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, it is not an embargo, but rather a control, so if there is no risk of diversion for military purposes, exports can be made as usual. Therefore, we would like to rigorously look at whether or not there is a risk of military diversion, and we are communicating with various companies about the overall impact of your indications, but overall the impact on domestic companies. Although we recognize that it is limited, we would like to communicate firmly with related companies.


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They say is mostly extreme advance and Digitimes says is mostly for EUV and 3DNAND but they included the dying Nikon immersion scanners line of products, although Nikon similar to ASML has various models different from the Dutch they didn't specify which models. A contradiction on its own.

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tokenanalyst

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This is the press Q&A from their commerce ministry.

Semiconductor manufacturing equipment export control

Q: I would like to ask about export regulations. The United States has strengthened export controls by naming China, but is this something that China is in mind?

A: Regarding the measures taken this time, I have been exchanging opinions with allies and comrades, including the United States and the Netherlands. is to be introduced.
I think each country has its own judgment on the content. It is not intended to be in line with or follow the US measures taken in October last year, but the content of the measures is different. Japan's recent measures are to add exports to all regions to the list of control targets, and do not focus on specific countries. Since we will strengthen confirmation of whether there is any concern about military use, we will implement strict export controls.

Q: I am also concerned with the export control of semiconductor manufacturing. Individual permits will also be required in the future if the ministerial decree comes into effect. Although it is for China, individual permission is also required. China is currently proceeding with the development of semiconductors in its own country, but what kind of points will be focused on for China when this individual license is granted in the future?
Also, about 30% of Japan's exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment come from China.

A: First of all, most of the 160 or so countries and regions around the world are not subject to blanket licenses for the items to be implemented this time, so China, as you pointed out, is included in this 160 countries and regions. Although it is included, it does not have a specific country in mind, so we will look at whether there is a risk of military diversion. Since it is limited to extremely advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, it is not an embargo, but rather a control, so if there is no risk of diversion for military purposes, exports can be made as usual. Therefore, we would like to rigorously look at whether or not there is a risk of military diversion, and we are communicating with various companies about the overall impact of your indications, but overall the impact on domestic companies. Although we recognize that it is limited, we would like to communicate firmly with related companies.


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They say is mostly extreme advance and Digitimes says is mostly for EUV and 3DNAND but they included the dying Nikon immersion scanners line of products, although Nikon similar to ASML has various models different from the Dutch they didn't specify which models. A contradiction on its own.

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This answer my own question Nikon only offer two types of immersion scanners while ASML offer 6.

1684840603605.png

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