And so long as they have access to foreign alternatives that view is going to hold, and there’s no problem with that. The key point is if they get cut off will they have a domestic alternative, however imperfect, to fall back to, and that question is now answered. They don’t have to like it. It just needs to work well enough to get by.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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At some point they will need to make the choice between leaving the business and closing if they have no other business because they refuse to use a slightly worse tool when their original tool is no longer usable, or use the slightly worse tool and work with the tool manufacturer to improve.
Maybe some fabs will choose to close and throw all their hard work for the past few decades into the trash, but those who don't will take the market share they vacate.
my opinion, give China time... it's not technically complete.... but everyone in this forum is waiting for a finished machine.
In March, some Arf-I machines are in the process of testing...
To be fair I think there is nothing wrong with fabs being this demanding of their domestic alternatives. That is a healthy and good attitude to have if you want to enforce performance and market discipline. There is however a difference between saying "not yet good enough" and "it doesn't matter until it does", because the "until it does" part isn't just about how good the domestic alternatives are but what happens in (increasingly actualized) worst case scenarios. The level of progress domestic substitutes have so far been able to make does matter even if they haven't hit the loftiest objectives. It's a good thing if foreign alternatives are still available. It's also a good thing that domestic alternatives are now at least viable.
So long as they continue to invest effort into helping SMEE or other SMEs improve their products. This isn't just their fallback option, it's realistically their future. The trade war isn't going to end, if anything, it'll intensify in the coming years.
See SEMES in South Korea. A "global" semiconductor equipment company with 0 customers other than Samsung.
How does such a company exist? I suspect, nationalism. If they were good they'd have other customers. But they don't.
In contrast, Chinese companies can even sell in the most hostile of markets.
Fair enough. But we do know some things about the people spreading these rumours - we know havok works at SMEE and we know HW has sources at Huawei. We know nothing about you and thus have no reason to give any more weight to what you say than we give them. So tell us a little about yourself; why are they "uninformed" while you presumably are informed?
How come they have "very little understanding of how scanners work" while you presumably have much? What do you do and how do you have access to information contrary to what we're hearing from them?
Don't take any of this as me giving you a hard time, perish the thought. I'd just like to know if we have a real expert here with us because if that turns out to be the case, then I've misjudged you and should adjust my views.
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