Chinese semiconductor industry

tphuang · May 3, 2023

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If Washington is making this a year to year thing to keep their leverage on Korean chipmakers, then AMEC and NAURA should be prepared to drastically increase their production, because SK and Samsung will quickly look toward validating their products

Four people familiar with the situation said the US had now sent a clear message that the Korean producers would be given another waiver for their plants in China for at least another year.
Since Washington imposed the export controls last year, US and South Korean officials have held intensive talks about how, and under what conditions, the chipmakers could continue to operate in China. Samsung and
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rely on US tools for part of their operations in China.
It remains unclear exactly what mechanism the US will use to allow them to continue to transfer American tools to China. One option would be to provide the companies with an open-ended “verified end use” certification, which would remove the need to seek repeated authorisation.

Longer term, if SK find it difficult to sustain their production in China, YMTC & CXMT will gain signficantly. Including gaining employees that Samsung & SK inevitably will have to let go

european_guy · May 3, 2023

tphuang said:
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If Washington is making this a year to year thing to keep their leverage on Korean chipmakers, then AMEC and NAURA should be prepared to drastically increase their production, because SK and Samsung will quickly look toward validating their products

Longer term, if SK find it difficult to sustain their production in China, YMTC & CXMT will gain signficantly. Including gaining employees that Samsung & SK inevitably will have to let go

Maybe SK and Samsung have suggested to US officials to be forced to sell their Chinese fabs if US does not give them another waiver...this could work stopping US from banning Chinese fabs of the Korean companies...it would require some guts from Korean companies to say so, but seems effective. If Korean DRAM and NAND plants in China are sold to China, maybe to YMTC, this would be a total disaster for US.

staplez · May 3, 2023

european_guy said:
Maybe SK and Samsung have suggested to US officials to be forced to sell their Chinese fabs if US does not give them another waiver...this could work stopping US from banning Chinese fabs of the Korean companies...it would require some guts from Korean companies to say so, but seems effective. If Korean DRAM and NAND plants in China are sold to China, maybe to YMTC, this would be a total disaster for US.

SK Hynix literally did that. There was a "rumor" going around that SK would finish the new factory and then just give it away if USA didn't let them open it. Suddenly, they said it's just a rumor, but I agree with you, I believe it was a threat.

tphuang · May 3, 2023

Screen Shot 2023-05-03 at 2.41.46 PM.png

From our favorite Huawei Whisper (screenshot this in case he delete the post again)

He has pretty solid sources with Huawei, so this + his most recent post he had elsewhere -> people inside Huawei believes DUVi right around the corner. And it's clear that ASML is hearing the same from fabs

Another widely circulating theme on Weibo. Kind of amazing how fast things moved here

tokenanalyst · May 3, 2023

Infineon signs wafer and ingot supply agreement with Chinese silicon carbide supplier Tianke Heda

Infineon signs wafer and ingot supply agreement with Chinese SiC supplier Tianke Heda to further diversify its SiC supplier system
[Munich, Germany, May 3, 2023] Infineon Technologies AG is promoting the diversification of its silicon carbide (SiC) supplier system and has partnered with Chinese SiC supplier Beijing Tianke Heda Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (hereinafter "Tianke Heda" for short) has signed a long-term agreement to secure a larger and competitive supply of silicon carbide materials . Tianke Heda will supply Infineon with high-quality and competitive 150 mm silicon carbide wafers and ingots for the manufacture of silicon carbide semiconductor products, and its supply is expected to account for two percent of Infineon's long-term demand. digit share.
The agreement signed by Infineon and Tianke Heda will help to ensure the stability of the entire supply chain, while meeting the growing demand for SiC semiconductor products in the Chinese market for automotive, solar and electric vehicle charging applications and energy storage systems. demand and will promote the rapid development of emerging semiconductor materials. According to the agreement, the first phase will focus on the supply of 150mm silicon carbide materials, but Tianke Heda will also provide 200mm diameter silicon carbide materials to help Infineon transition to 200mm diameter wafers.

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hvpc · May 3, 2023

tphuang said:
View attachment 111996
From our favorite Huawei Whisper (screenshot this in case he delete the post again)

He has pretty solid sources with Huawei, so this + his most recent post he had elsewhere -> people inside Huawei believes DUVi right around the corner. And it's clear that ASML is hearing the same from fabs

Another widely circulating theme on Weibo. Kind of amazing how fast things moved here
View attachment 111997

These just more uninformed rumors circulated by people with very little understanding of how scanners work.

it would already be amazing achievement if SMEE come out with a ArFi at an alpha tool or beta tool level.

As for SMEE iLine SSB800 released last year, that tool is not even fully fit for HVM. So any proclamation that we dont need ASML low end tools would not be an accurate take on the real situation of domestic fabs

mossen · May 3, 2023

tphuang said:
He has pretty solid sources with Huawei, so this + his most recent post he had elsewhere -> people inside Huawei believes DUVi right around the corner. And it's clear that ASML is hearing the same from fabs

Another widely circulating theme on Weibo. Kind of amazing how fast things moved here

I remember an interview with a senior ARM executive some years ago when ARM was the hottest thing since sliced bread. He was asked about ARM's strategy vis-a-vis partners building their own chips, given that ARM was still releasing their own "stock" designs.

He noted that one customer in China managed to create a new chip from a fresh release of an uarch so fast that they even managed to beat ARM itself. He didn't name who that was but you could implictly understand it was Huawei. This was before the Trump bans.

So, perhaps we should not be surprised how fast China is moving here. There's precedent.

tonyget · May 3, 2023

hvpc said:
These just more uninformed rumors circulated by people with very little understanding of how scanners work.

it would already be amazing achievement if SMEE come out with a ArFi at an alpha tool or beta tool level.

As for SMEE iLine SSB800 released last year, that tool is not even fully fit for HVM. So any proclamation that we dont need ASML low end tools would not be an accurate take on the real situation of domestic fabs

Yes，havok already said this. SMEE immersion machine is still at testing phase

havok：浸没式量产还早呢，上微去年还亏损呢 It’s still early for immersion mass production, and SMEE still lost money last year

Also ASML sold around 100 machines in China last year. The production capacity of SMEE is too small to fill that gap

tphuang · May 3, 2023

hvpc said:
These just more uninformed rumors circulated by people with very little understanding of how scanners work.

it would already be amazing achievement if SMEE come out with a ArFi at an alpha tool or beta tool level.

As for SMEE iLine SSB800 released last year, that tool is not even fully fit for HVM. So any proclamation that we dont need ASML low end tools would not be an accurate take on the real situation of domestic fabs

I see your point from the view of fabs, but I would say that most people on this thread are not looking from that point of view. in Huawei Whisper's case, he looks at things from HW's point of view & they have to support domestic effort for obvious reasons.

In this particular case, SMEE DUVi or a Huawei EUV is not meant to replace ASML, at least for the foreseeable future. The goal is to actually keep China market open for ASML and to allow ASML make the case to Dutch gov't that they need to loosen up restrictions. Anyone working in SMIC fabs would rather have AMAT tools than NAURA tools for 28nm process, but management have to make decisions on geopolitics.

In this case, SMIC demonstrating that it can use SMEE machines to do 28nm process would ensure that 1980i never get sanctioned and also loosen up restrictions on 2050i/2100i. I think we all want to see that.

tonyget · May 3, 2023

tphuang said:
I see your point from the view of fabs, but I would say that most people on this thread are not looking from that point of view. in Huawei Whisper's case, he looks at things from HW's point of view & they have to support domestic effort for obvious reasons.

In this particular case, SMEE DUVi or a Huawei EUV is not meant to replace ASML, at least for the foreseeable future. The goal is to actually keep China market open for ASML and to allow ASML make the case to Dutch gov't that they need to loosen up restrictions. Anyone working in SMIC fabs would rather have AMAT tools than NAURA tools for 28nm process, but management have to make decisions on geopolitics.

In this case, SMIC demonstrating that it can use SMEE machines to do 28nm process would ensure that 1980i never get sanctioned and also loosen up restrictions on 2050i/2100i. I think we all want to see that.

Nope. SMIC or YMTC or Huawei or any other fab will keep a low profile for the foreseeable future，as what they are doing now. They will not publicly announce any breakthrough. They will certainly not announce progress on working with domestic machines.

Chinese semiconductor industry

tphuang

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european_guy

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staplez

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tphuang

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tokenanalyst

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mossen

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tphuang

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