They are actually punching back now... Wow.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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They are actually punching back now... Wow.
They're kinda dependent on Qualcomm though, not so much for Micron.
Qualcomm will also suffer the same fate when China's semiconductor industry breaks through 10-7nm after 2025...
Honor, Oppo are designing their own SOC... it won't be long before Qualcomm joins Micro
I'm going to be bold here but I think some deposition and etch companies days are numbered, since in almost every process they have a competitor that is catching up fast or is with them already. Just a matter of time tbh. Don't need to surpass them, just need to get big enough to reduce their dominance, and they'll slow down due to lack of revenue while Chinese companies get more revenue to run even faster. It won't be immediately but their best days are behind them.
Intel and AMD will still near monopolize x86 chips but how long will this architecture be around when Windows for ARM just came out? And if Windows for ARM is here, is it such a leap to say Windows for any RISC chip, including RISC-V, isn't so far behind? And if Microsoft gives up the RISC market, do they want to risk creating a monstrous competitor in China?
I think China is for cooperation and win-win if you don't do anything shady to undermine China. Just look at the benefits Elon Musk has reaped despite the fact that China has mature EV tech. Micron is behind a lot of the sanction lobbying on Chinese firms so they got what they deserved really. If Qualcomm knows what's good for them they shouldn't punch below the belt. Personally I hope Qualcomm is okay because they and Huawei were the two of the biggest donors/sponsors for our ECE Communications Laboratory and helped us with our senior design project.
X86's days are numbered for sure. Not even future server farms will want to lean on X86 given the worse operational costs from energy consumption and cooling requirements.
On the other hand, I think AMAT and LAM will probably be just fine. If Chinese firms can successfully pressure them in markets outside of China, that will probably just force them to switch to a more focused R&D strategy. They may be forced to specialize more in order to defend their market position and that might erode some of the luster on their stock price, but I don't see why they wouldn't be able to carve out very good defensible businesses as competition comes.
EXACTLY. Micron has been lobbing US politicians BEFORE the Jinhua situation to suppress potential completion in China, it could be safe to say that they pretty much started this whole situation with YMTC. Is also interesting SK (Samsung, SK Hynix) and and Japanese players (Kioxia) didn't got their products review for "national security".
Personally, I would be pretty much in favor of the "sell your best or sell nothing" policy because a lot of pundits think that they can have it both ways, that they can have their cake and eat it too by banning cutting edge products to the Chinese market while selling what they already produce to keep Chinese companies down. As companies like Naura and AMEC increase their production capacity and their market share, the message should be clear and reciprocal, sell everything including your best or sell nothing.
proelite
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All the above companies will have a future in China if they remain China friendly. The biggest reason Micron was targeted was because they were key proponents of YMTC suppression.
Samsung and SK Hynix are among the biggest fish in their industries have big investments and operations in China, although they make alot of money from the Chinese market they also add alot of value through their activities. Micron is a small fish in the industry although still quiet capable, and it doesn't provide nearly as much to China as the others and it is an easy target, and one that has a low cost even if their activities are severely curtailed as a lesson.
As for Qualcomm and others, I think they are playing a poor hand well. They have to follow US regulations since their operations depend on it, but they are continuing to hedge their bets and investing in China such as the new Qualcomm R&D center. Same for AMD/Nvidia, they have not pulled out. At the end of the day, its similar to any negotiation or contract, you have to provide something of value to get something of value. As @siegecrossbow said, as long as both sides get something from it there will still be opportunities despite the politics. I know people like to point out how Apple makes a killing in China, but the supply chain and expertise cultivated through their investment is worth alot on its own. At the end of the day, what you want is the value creation, whether it is through domestic companies or international ones. Tesla is a great example of this and other international companies whether in semiconductors or other technology sectors still have great opportunities in the market, they just have to offer up more localization value if they want to be successful amid political headwinds and local challengers.
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