Yes, it was discussed there a few pages ago. and judging from the release date based on my information (Fall), then it probably will go into the new Mate series smartphone which means that it should be a pretty potent chip since Mate XX were always on a higher pecking order than P XX smartphones. Unless, of course, this 12 nm chip is for some other smartphone and Huawei will surprise us with a SMIC N+2 fabricated chip in fall instead but I think it is too optimistic for now.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Did you even bother actually reading the table you yourself posted? "Nanya" had revenue of $254 million in Q4 2022. "Others" had revenue of $133 million in the same quarter. If CXMT is included in the "Others" category, there is zero chance it has similar or greater revenue.
CXMT's Fab 1 was supposed to ramp up to 120K wafers per month when complete. But the thing is, there has been zero information on increase in fabrication capacity after an initial announcement that it was manufacturing 40K wafers per month with plans to reach 80K wafers per month late last year. And Fab 2 construction still has not started. So quite likely they did not hit 120K wafers per month target i.e. full capacity yet.
Satellite photo from Baidu:
Factory design plan:
Last I heard they were also behind in density, and yield is unknown.
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yes. I’m merely questioning if Trendforce’s estimate for CXMT is correct. Do you believe everything you read without questioning it?
Unlike other companies on the list, CXMT is not a publicly traded company so revenue info is not readily available; it has to be estimated through other means.
that‘s in comparison to the Big3 of DRAM. They produce DRAM of similar density as Nanya.
I’m simply going with the optimistic narrative on this forum about CXMT, if true then we’d expect CXMT would have higher revenue than Nanya. Even at subpar yield (lower but nothing drastic) and lower wafer ASP how does CXMT revenue come in at half of Nanya’s when it has 70% more wafe capacity?
CXMT: 120K wpm ==> $133M 4Q22
Nanya: 70K wpm ==> $254M in 4Q22
so either TrendForce is underestimating CXMT‘ revenue or some of the positive narratives (the big wpm, it’s yield performance, the assumption of big demand by domestic players/good ASPj we paint here in this forum are not correct.
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Chinese IC companies offer 3x salaries to poach Taiwanese IC process and equipment engineers
Until CXMT makes their production numbers public, or their sales volume, we simply do not know. What we do know is that they cannot have more than 120K wafers per month, since only the first Fab is operational.
TechInsights only has die analysis of 22nm DRAM from CXMT and 20nm DRAM from Nanya.
TechInsights only has die analysis of 22nm DRAM from CXMT and 20nm DRAM from Nanya.
well by TrendForce’s estimate, CXMT is pumping out average of 35-40K wpm. I think this is most likely the assumption they used (40K wpm).
I‘m sticking to my assessment that :
1. Trendforce is incorrect in their assumption
2. If we conservatively assume CXMT yield is ~60% and only output 70K wpm out of 120K wafer starts (similar to Nanya) then we should expect CXMT to be closer to Nanya’s revenue.
like you said, “no public info…we don’t know (for sure)”, we have to guesstimate. i think I’m entitled to have a different opinion than TrendForce on assumption used to estimate CXMT revenue. And you are free to believe Trendforce.
by the way, CXMT Fab1 is not running efficiently to hit 120K wpm, they are closer to 100K wpm. They have a smaller fab in Beijing that‘s running 20K wpm. I don’t think you are aware of this Beijing fab (my guess).
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As others have also said China must also maximize the indigenization of the chip making equipment and chip making materials supply chain.
‘Are your chips made locally?’ Xi Jinping prods construction vehicle maker about semiconductors amid self-sufficiency push
A ‘two sessions’ delegate from Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group said all the chips in its crane were made in China after the president asked
The exchange briefly thrust the company into the national spotlight, as semiconductors have become the focal point of a technological self-sufficiency drive
A Chinese construction vehicle maker briefly became a leading example of the country’s self-reliance drive in semiconductors when President Xi Jinping asked a delegate from the company whether all the chips it used were domestically produced. In a meeting with the Jiangsu delegation group at the National People’s Congress (NPC) on Sunday, Xi interrupted the report by Shan Zenghai from the Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group (XCMG) to ask, “Are the chips in your crane all made locally?”, according to an account reported by the state-run Xinhua news agency on Monday. In response, Shan said the “ratio of domestic parts” in its 220-ton all-terrain crane is now 100 per cent, up from 71 per cent in 2017, when Xi visited the company.
Chips used in construction vehicles such as cranes and excavators are generally more mature than the highly advanced ones most consumers are familiar with in their smartphones and laptops. Semiconductors have become the focal point of China’s push for technological self-sufficiency, and the country has recently refocused chip-making efforts on mature process nodes amid escalating US export restrictions.
Washington’s October update to its export control regime greatly expanded restrictions on China’s access to advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment. In response, Beijing has moved quickly to try to boost the ratio of domestic chips used in home appliances, vehicles and industrial devices.
China’s by volume in the first two months this year, according to customs data. The 15 per cent decline in imports last year was the first annual fall in two decades.
Xi’s exchange with Shan was widely picked up by state media as a strong signal from the Chinese leader regarding the country’s continued emphasis on shifting to domestically made technology.
Xi has emphasised technological self-reliance repeatedly during China’s “two sessions”, the annual parliamentary meetings of the NPC and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, according to comments published by state media outlets. On Monday, Xi levelled a rare targeted accusation against the US, saying it was leading other Western nations in “all-round containment and suppression of China”.
Xi was also quoted by People’s Daily as saying China must ensure its food and manufacturing independence. The website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, China’s top anti-graft agency, mentioned XCMG’s progress in domestic sourcing and Xi’s remarks about “high-quality” development being “the primary task of comprehensively building a modern socialist country”.
China’s “whole-nation” approach to developing the local semiconductor industry and cutting reliance on imported devices has continued with Beijing’s blessing. Vice-Premier Liu He said at a symposium last week that China will continue to boost the local chip industry by leveraging both state and market power for growth.
‘Are your chips made locally?’ Xi Jinping prods construction vehicle maker about semiconductors amid self-sufficiency push
A ‘two sessions’ delegate from Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group said all the chips in its crane were made in China after the president asked
The exchange briefly thrust the company into the national spotlight, as semiconductors have become the focal point of a technological self-sufficiency drive
A Chinese construction vehicle maker briefly became a leading example of the country’s self-reliance drive in semiconductors when President Xi Jinping asked a delegate from the company whether all the chips it used were domestically produced. In a meeting with the Jiangsu delegation group at the National People’s Congress (NPC) on Sunday, Xi interrupted the report by Shan Zenghai from the Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group (XCMG) to ask, “Are the chips in your crane all made locally?”, according to an account reported by the state-run Xinhua news agency on Monday. In response, Shan said the “ratio of domestic parts” in its 220-ton all-terrain crane is now 100 per cent, up from 71 per cent in 2017, when Xi visited the company.
Chips used in construction vehicles such as cranes and excavators are generally more mature than the highly advanced ones most consumers are familiar with in their smartphones and laptops. Semiconductors have become the focal point of China’s push for technological self-sufficiency, and the country has recently refocused chip-making efforts on mature process nodes amid escalating US export restrictions.
Washington’s October update to its export control regime greatly expanded restrictions on China’s access to advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment. In response, Beijing has moved quickly to try to boost the ratio of domestic chips used in home appliances, vehicles and industrial devices.
China’s by volume in the first two months this year, according to customs data. The 15 per cent decline in imports last year was the first annual fall in two decades.
Xi’s exchange with Shan was widely picked up by state media as a strong signal from the Chinese leader regarding the country’s continued emphasis on shifting to domestically made technology.
Xi has emphasised technological self-reliance repeatedly during China’s “two sessions”, the annual parliamentary meetings of the NPC and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, according to comments published by state media outlets. On Monday, Xi levelled a rare targeted accusation against the US, saying it was leading other Western nations in “all-round containment and suppression of China”.
Xi was also quoted by People’s Daily as saying China must ensure its food and manufacturing independence. The website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, China’s top anti-graft agency, mentioned XCMG’s progress in domestic sourcing and Xi’s remarks about “high-quality” development being “the primary task of comprehensively building a modern socialist country”.
China’s “whole-nation” approach to developing the local semiconductor industry and cutting reliance on imported devices has continued with Beijing’s blessing. Vice-Premier Liu He said at a symposium last week that China will continue to boost the local chip industry by leveraging both state and market power for growth.
Among his many quotes I remember where Chinese President Xi Jinping likened a microchip to the to the human heart, saying "no matter how big a person is, he or she can never be strong without a sound and strong heart"
Of course the "person" he refers to is China....it was in 2018!
I've been following the saga of the Newport fab and it is stupid and ridiculous. The entire debacle shows how stupid, ignorant, short-sighted and is a display of the remarkable stupidity that infests the UK government.
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