I think the only answer to that question is definitely maybe. According to Havock's leaks, the machine has been tested and verified, and they're starting to build the factory for mass production by the end of the year. There are so many problems though. You don't just turn on a factory. Even a simple clothing factory takes months to set up. And even if this factory is on, there's no guarantee it can produce enough machines for the semiconductor companies. There are rumors of 20 machines a year from the end of this year. SMIC alone has been consuming something like 30 a year from ASML. So there are still problems, but it looks likely there will be a solution. Though we're impatient for sure, only through time and hard work can it actually be done. At least that's the problem and not actually having no solutions at all.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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since september, at least 15-25 machines will be produced..
Production slots are limited and delays pushing ship date past launch date of regulatory enforcement are possible.
From everything I read in here it feels like right now, the only bottleneck is the Lithography machine. I know we talk about SMEE a lot in here but that makes everything more confusing. I wish we could get a clear cut answer from the company (statement?) as to how long until ArF Lithography machine to be mass produced and how long until ArFi Lithography to be mass produced. As for EUVL, I'm assuming the Chinese government itself is working on it (?) as well as Huawei and SMEE too. Patiently, patiently waiting for a concrete news from SMEE on these two things (ArF & ArFi).
The more I read about other SME companies of China (Say Naura (North Huachuang), Piotech (Tuojing Tech), ACM Research (Shengmei Shanghai), Hwatsing (Huahai Qingke), Kingstone Semi (Kaishitong Semi), AMEC (CN Micro), Sinyang, Mattson (Yitang Semi), Sizone Tech (Zhongsi)) the more it feels like america and its allies are shooting themselves in their foot. The revenue and net profit of these companies are ballooning in last couple of years. So the more they they sell their SME the more improvements they make in next few years and become on par with AMAT, LAM, KLA & TEL in the near future.
The more I read about other SME companies of China (Say Naura (North Huachuang), Piotech (Tuojing Tech), ACM Research (Shengmei Shanghai), Hwatsing (Huahai Qingke), Kingstone Semi (Kaishitong Semi), AMEC (CN Micro), Sinyang, Mattson (Yitang Semi), Sizone Tech (Zhongsi)) the more it feels like america and its allies are shooting themselves in their foot. The revenue and net profit of these companies are ballooning in last couple of years. So the more they they sell their SME the more improvements they make in next few years and become on par with AMAT, LAM, KLA & TEL in the near future.
what ban? Looks like they will need to apply for export licenses on the most advanced DUVi but exact details of what will be included is still to be worked on. Looks like how this will be implemented is still to be worked out. To me, they are trying to do the bare minimum to get Americans off their back. Maybe they will have to restrict it further later, but the Dutch are just playing the forever delay game from what I can see.
On the other hand, if Japanese is banning export of photoresist to certain Chinese fabs, that is far more concerning.
I think this checks out mostly with what havok said. This guy might have some credibility.
@PopularScience do you know what his background is?
Xuzhou B&C seems like the real deal.
hmm, there are a lot more stuff. We've been talking about photoresist for pages and you have noticed it? And then there is Kingsemi that apparently just got Immersion track tool validated. It doesn't seem to be much ahead of SMEE's Arfi scanner progress at all. And then there is AMEC who is still working on the extreme high aspect ratio etching tool. Made great progress, but that's still not validation.
lithography machine isn't going to be the only thing holding China back.
Things to consider with respect to Loongson
More importantly, they've spent a long time on ISA, building ecosystem and doing translations. They are looking to complete their ecosystem in linux soon.
Again, taping out will complete in first half of the year and then provided to partners and mass production next year. Until then, 5000 series will carry the burden
They've done a lot to try to lower the cost of their end product. Now, can get motherboard for just 1499. That's pretty good. We will see how well 3A6000 perform, but in simulation, it was 40 to 60% better. We've seen with 2K1500 & 2K2000 that the real product was better than simulation.
More importantly, they've spent a long time on ISA, building ecosystem and doing translations. They are looking to complete their ecosystem in linux soon.
From @olalavn's tweet
interesting items in there from the 6th IC award
If we look through there. YMTC got award for their Xtacking 3.0 technology with X3-9070 3d Nand
U-precision got award for Planar Grating interferometer for Lithography machine (confirms that this is ready)
SMIC North's research center got award for domestic 28nm production line (I'm not sure what this means, I don't think they have 100% domestic line yet) - again the research center was formed in 2017 for building domestic supply chain
Another one I saw from @olalavn tweet
This makes a lot of sense I guess and will only get worse as Lam/AMAT is likely to see even fewer orders next year.
interesting items in there from the 6th IC award
If we look through there. YMTC got award for their Xtacking 3.0 technology with X3-9070 3d Nand
U-precision got award for Planar Grating interferometer for Lithography machine (confirms that this is ready)
SMIC North's research center got award for domestic 28nm production line (I'm not sure what this means, I don't think they have 100% domestic line yet) - again the research center was formed in 2017 for building domestic supply chain
YMTC got another award for 3d Nand laser annealing equipment
Another one I saw from @olalavn tweet
This makes a lot of sense I guess and will only get worse as Lam/AMAT is likely to see even fewer orders next year.
Thank you sir, coming from you I stand corrected.
Next year. 2024. They would announce something about EUV, and they probably announce it together with some sort of DUV accomplishment. That is my estimation.
Suppose we want to buy a new car.
So we go to the car dealership AMSL, and buy three cars. Then the local dealership will move out of town, but the three cars will still be delivered to the garage.
That is what is kind of like happening here.
The deal with the Japanese probably be a little different. They will sign a contract saying we want to buy six motorcycles, but have clauses inside the contract to change the specs at certain intervals.
However, I am really angry about all of this.
The United States out of malice is trying to destroy these commercial relationships cultivated by China-Netherlands-Japan, with each other, built up over years, simply because the United States is not happy with the tech war they started.
That is why the Dutch and Japan will go along with it, in this manner. Sell everything, three cars, six motorcycles, to the Chinese before the bans are in effect. Then hope that by the time the Chinese have used up all the stuff they bought, maybe 10 years later things would have changed.
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