Chinese semiconductor industry

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european_guy

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tphuang said:
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Some notes form this interesting piece of info:

1. Companies involved in this report are HMT New Technical Materials (SHSE:603306) for Photoresist, Anji Technology for CMP polishing fluid and Hangzhou Greenda Electronic Materials for the photoresist developer.

2. SMIC has one line in volume production at 14nm node and is working at full capacity. It means maintenance and service issues for US tools have been successfully worked around. We can safely assume this 14nm line has US tools in, because it has been built and tooled before October last year.

3. Regarding claims of no access to 14nm line for testing, this has been done by Greenda. I don't fully buy their arguments. SMIC has of course very good reason to allow Greenda perform verification of their product, but if Greenda wants to occupy the line for one year time, I can understand why SMIC is reluctant in doing so. To shorten verification they should go to fab with an already fully developed and tested product, they really can't pretend to debug and fine tune their product on the customer's production line, and even the most advanced 14nm one!
 
tphuang

tphuang

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european_guy said:
Some notes form this interesting piece of info:

1. Companies involved in this report are HMT New Technical Materials (SHSE:603306) for Photoresist, Anji Technology for CMP polishing fluid and Hangzhou Greenda Electronic Materials for the photoresist developer.

2. SMIC has one line in volume production at 14nm node and is working at full capacity. It means maintenance and service issues for US tools have been successfully worked around. We can safely assume this 14nm line has US tools in, because it has been built and tooled before October last year.

3. Regarding claims of no access to 14nm line for testing, this has been done by Greenda. I don't fully buy their arguments. SMIC has of course very good reason to allow Greenda perform verification of their product, but if Greenda wants to occupy the line for one year time, I can understand why SMIC is reluctant in doing so. To shorten verification they should go to fab with an already fully developed and tested product, they really can't pretend to debug and fine tune their product on the customer's production line, and even the most advanced 14nm one!
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fyi, I think the phrasing there is not the best. I don't think it's saying there is only 1 14nm production line in SMIC, but rather SMIC is the only company that has 14nm production capability and that it is fully booked.

Also, I think previous Lam interview showed that there weren't many Lam employees at SMSC fab to begin with, so they've likely been building resilience against US sanctions for a while now. IIRC, @PopularScience mentioned that they've had hard time sourcing tools for that facility. We will have a better idea of its production capacity when the SMIC full year report comes out.
 
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tacoburger

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So regarding Japan's export controls, what equipment or materials are they selling that domestic chinese companies can't already produce?
 
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Overbom

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Exclusive | Tech war: Chinese chip firms stockpile equipment ahead of US-Japan-Netherlands agreement on tightening export controls​

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  • Some of China’s largest chip makers have scrambled to buy equipment and materials this year in anticipation of an agreement expected to further curb access
  • Japanese firms are continuing to fulfil orders while they await clarity on new rules expected in April
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Chinese semiconductor companies are scrambling to stockpile chip-making equipment, spare parts and other related materials, while overseas firms continue to fulfil orders as they await clarity on tighter export rules resulting from coordination between the US, Japan and the Netherlands, according to industry insiders.
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Some of the country’s largest chip firms have been ramping up stockpiling this year after news that Washington had reached an agreement with Tokyo and The Hague to help enforce export restrictions, which the US upgraded in October to become a de facto ban on sales to China of advanced chip-making gear. The move has fanned concerns among buyers in the country that they would continue to face escalating curbs on equipment purchases, according to two people involved in the semiconductor supply chain, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.
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One major Beijing-based chip equipment firm has “filled several large warehouses” with materials and components, including those not even on the US export control list, one of the people said.
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Some companies are “overbuying” components and equipment beyond what is needed for current production plans, said the other person, who is based in Tokyo to source Japanese products for Chinese customers. The unusual scale of the orders was partly driven by fears of greater export restrictions down the road, even though Tokyo has not officially started the process, the person said.
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tacoburger

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The new export controls by the Netherlands and Japan might actually be a good thing in the long run.

Firstly it even further cements the idea of total domestic supply for the entire industry, no foreign supplier can be trusted. Secondly, this gives ammo for Beijing to hit back, and nobody can really complain about IP theft, massive subsidies, declining market share or outright total bans if they started the fight first.

Thirdly, the loss of the sales from the chinese market will massively impact this companies, especially Japanese ones, they don't have the money to subsidize the billions in loss revenue. And lastly, if China does manage to come up with a viable domestic alternative within 1-2 years, this will signal to other companies and countries that this kind of sanctions and export controls won't work, all they do is make China run even faster to catch up and recreate the technology.

Of course, I hope that the short term effects aren't that disruptive and that domestic equipment and material suppliers can catch up fast enough.
 
FairAndUnbiased

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tacoburger said:
The new export controls by the Netherlands and Japan might actually be a good thing in the long run.

Firstly it even further cements the idea of total domestic supply for the entire industry, no foreign supplier can be trusted. Secondly, this gives ammo for Beijing to hit back, and nobody can really complain about IP theft, massive subsidies, declining market share or outright total bans if they started the fight first.

Thirdly, the loss of the sales from the chinese market will massively impact this companies, especially Japanese ones, they don't have the money to subsidize the billions in loss revenue. And lastly, if China does manage to come up with a viable domestic alternative within 1-2 years, this will signal to other companies and countries that this kind of sanctions and export controls won't work, all they do is make China run even faster to catch up and recreate the technology.

Of course, I hope that the short term effects aren't that disruptive and that domestic equipment and material suppliers can catch up fast enough.
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It also signals to third countries that Chinese equipment can be trusted. It's the beginning of the end for them if that happens...

They started this fight neither knowing themselves nor the opponent.
 
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