Yes they will need time to qualify domestic tools, and what better time than a downturn? In particular, the more challenging tools should be qualified now.Based on what we've read, YMTC qualifying domestic tools will take a while. And their existing tools based on what @hvpc said probably aren't running optimally right now. So even if gov't is helping them out, it's going to be a painful couple of years for them. I wouldn't necessarily believe anything out of SCMP, but I think it's fair to assume that they need some time to qualify domestic tools. More than anything, that's probably what is hurting their expansion plans.
Beyond that, they are having trouble selling their products on JD right now. Demand is just not there. I keep reading about different SSDs dropping to new lows in pricing.
Sounds incredibly complex. Correct me if I'm wrong, I don't remember anymore, but wasn't Intel having foundry issues for so long in part due to the complexity invovled with multiple patterning?
Yes is more complicated than single or double patterning, but Low NA EUV still require multiple patterning with lower performance per tool at a higher cost per tool and materials, I guess today is not far away from SAQP immersion. In 2017 was more costly. That could change drastically with the arrival of high-NA EUV lithography.Sounds incredibly complex. Correct me if I'm wrong, I don't remember anymore, but wasn't Intel having foundry issues for so long in part due to the complexity invovled with multiple patterning?
Keep in mind that there is more to see in this particular GPU.Self-developed domestic GPU completed design and released this year: 14nm process
After October surprise, Nov orders were average and Dec orders were good. SMIC Jingcheng orders are picking up. 2022 new orders are 60% up from 2021. 2022 orders basically covers 2023 Q3 revenue. export restrictions & consumption weakness effects are yet to be seen. will need to wait until end of Q1 to determine if Q4 revenue will be affected.Q:公司现在预估2023年下半年是否会有收入放缓的体现?
上半年新增订单每 月15亿(对应一年收入在180亿,现在单月新增订单的情况?)10月7日以后公 司新增订单看到的情况?(情绪上边际利空,但短期长鑫、中芯京城边际上有一 些改善)如何解读?
A: 10月的事情出来后大家都在观望,11月订单一般,12月订单较好,中芯京城 回暖,1月的订单目前还没看到数字。2022年新增订单相较2021年增长60%, 2022年底的订单基本可以cover3Q23的收入,海外限制以及消费复苏有待观察, 4Q23是否受影响要到一季度末或者年中才能看清楚。
upstream capex depends on lithography machine restrictions. CXMT is relatively active still. YMTC in the 128+ layer restriction is harderQ:上游资本开支情况?
A:重点在于光刻机是否受限制。合肥长鑫还比较积极,长存128以上受限比较艰 难。
Basically anything that can be provided domestically is getting validated by CXMTQ:长鑫那边有什么新的设备做认证?
A:加大认证设备的种类,国产能做的都去验证
Proportion of US component is dropping and domestic component is increasing, but more advanced equipments are using more imported parts. Actively verifying domestic componentsQ:零部件的国产化率?美国占比低于10%,现在是多少?还有哪些比较核心的 零部件感觉和海外差异比较大?日韩供应商的态度如何?
A:不同产品型号不同,总体美国零部件比例下降,国产比例上升,先进制程进口 比例较高,韩国没什么变化,日本有些影响,日本出售的比较谨慎,这些厂商基 于产能问题卖的少。我们也在积极验证国产零部件。
I guess NAURA also provides a lot of photovoltaic equipmentQ:22年收入按下游拆?23年增速及展望?
A:22年占比和三季度,半年度差不多,真空事业群有所下降,元器件和半导体 增长都比较快,半导体占整体55%左右,集成电路1-9月份还不错,显示一般, 估计23年也不太会倒退,零部件流量计还可以,因为流量计和光伏比较相关, 市场上光伏流量计90%都是北方提供,22年零部件体量超过显示。23年光伏设 备还不错,接单量增长比较快,第三代半导体继续保持高增速,元器件预计23年30%增速。