Chinese semiconductor industry

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tinrobert

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european_guy said:
...but we are still far from US suppliers.

Here the 2021 revenues and share of China market on total revenues

AMAT $23.063B * 29% = $6,68 B

Lam Research $14.62B * 35% = $5,12 B

KLA $6.919B * 31% = $2,14 B

For a total of $14B, almost 4 times more than Chinese top manufacturers.

All three US toolmakers have announced revenue hits for 2023, but much lower compared to their current turnover...I'd think they have been too optimistic....their future in China is doomed. Within a couple of years it will be hard for them to sell anything new in China. Eventually their business will end up in just servicing and spare parts for current installed base.

OTH these very big numbers once again show us the appalling size of US origin equipment in China. China gave US the keys to be blackmailed and abused at will.

In hindsight is easy to spot the gross miscalculation that occurred here. US didn't change now, they have always been like this. The almost 2 decades at the cross of the century of relative market fairness and normal business relations were only temporary, supported by the idea that globalization would have been mostly in the interest of US. Once US realized it was not, they resolutely and unilaterally scrapped it.
Click to expand...
You are looking at 2021 data when ALL equipment companies increased 42.6% in WFE according to my analysis. What you need to look at are 2022 revenues, and you can see the comparison for 3 quarters of 2022 compared to 3 quarters of 2021 in my article entitled

No Evidence U.S. Sanctions Against China Are Working, Thanks To ASML​


Look at Chart 3. You can read it here:
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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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tinrobert said:
You are looking at 2021 data when ALL equipment companies increased 42.6% in WFE according to my analysis. What you need to look at are 2022 revenues, and you can see the comparison for 3 quarters of 2022 compared to 3 quarters of 2021 in my article entitled

No Evidence U.S. Sanctions Against China Are Working, Thanks To ASML​


Look at Chart 3. You can read it here:
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Click to expand...
Not much more to add since I'm not on business side, but this is a high credibility and quality article for the business side in my opinion.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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tokenanalyst said:
YMTC. No, they are not celebrating.
SMEE. I don't think they care a lot.
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I'm really curious what additional restriction does entity list add for YMTC. They already can't get help from any American person. At best, they can import equipments needed for 64 layer production, which I don't think they need to be expanding anymore. Any additional capacity they add would be based on stocked up equipments getting put into production. Getting added to the entity list didn't do that much to SMIC.

On the other hand, I do think CXMT would be hurt more from getting added to entity list since it is still ramping production for 19nm DDR4, which is not sanctioned. Maybe they can continue to buy more American equipments while domestic players are catching up here.

tonyget said:
What we do know is that you can make DDR5 without EUV
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Are you think of Micron's new 1-beta based LPDDR5X technology?
CXMT already planned to start 17nm DDR5 production in Q2
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tonyget

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tphuang said:
I'm really curious what additional restriction does entity list add for YMTC. They already can't get help from any American person. At best, they can import equipments needed for 64 layer production, which I don't think they need to be expanding anymore. Any additional capacity they add would be based on stocked up equipments getting put into production. Getting added to the entity list didn't do that much to SMIC.

On the other hand, I do think CXMT would be hurt more from getting added to entity list since it is still ramping production for 19nm DDR4, which is not sanctioned. Maybe they can continue to buy more American equipments while domestic players are catching up here.
Click to expand...

Rarely see any bidding info from CXMT，so it's hard to judge to what degree they rely on US equipments

As for YMTC，the only type of equipment that is relevant to the 128 layer restriction I can think of，is probably etching machines. I don't know other type of machines have layer related parameters.
 
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tokenanalyst

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tphuang said:
I'm really curious what additional restriction does entity list add for YMTC. They already can't get help from any American person. At best, they can import equipments needed for 64 layer production, which I don't think they need to be expanding anymore. Any additional capacity they add would be based on stocked up equipments getting put into production. Getting added to the entity list didn't do that much to SMIC.
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They designed their processes using equipment from KLA, I don't know but I think KLA rely on cloud services for data analysis, if that service is integral for their process or if the equipment doesn't work properly without that service, that will be a problem.
They would have to redesign or find workarounds using Chinese tools from RSIC, Shanghai Jingce, DJAL, an Xray metrology company in China when their tools come online and a Chinese company that I think do data analytics for metrology in China.

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Another issue would be high aspect ratio etching, According with a post here their process was designed using LAM tools, I don't think that those require any special service to work properly, but anyway they will have to find workarounds maybe working with AMEC or Naura if they want to keep expanding.

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gelgoog

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Over 256-bit vector processors are in the dual use list in the Wassenaar Arrangement.

"Technology" according to the General Technology Note other than that
specified by 3.E.1. for the "development" or "production" of a "microprocessor
microcircuit", "microcomputer microcircuit" or microcontroller microcircuit
core, having an arithmetic logic unit with an access width of 32 bits or more and
any of the following features or characteristics:
...
b. Designed to perform more than four 64-bit or larger floating-point
operation results per cycle; or
c. Designed to perform more than eight 16-bit fixed-point multiply-
accumulate results per cycle (e.g., digital manipulation of analogue
information that has been previously converted into digital form, also
known as digital "signal processing").

So this should also include AMD Zen 4 for example.
 
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